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[192.64.237.111]) by mx.google.com with ESMTPS id af79cd13be357-7b1149c2524si757992885a.587.2024.10.13.05.24.55 for (version=TLS1_3 cipher=TLS_AES_256_GCM_SHA384 bits=256/256); Sun, 13 Oct 2024 05:24:55 -0700 (PDT) Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of delivery_20241013082454.37060254.1194047@bouncest.seekingalpha.com designates 192.64.237.111 as permitted sender) client-ip=192.64.237.111; Authentication-Results: mx.google.com; dkim=pass header.i=@seekingalpha.com header.s=sailthru header.b=V2o66cK5; dkim=pass header.i=@pmta.sailthru.com header.s=mt header.b=WVc7cyUJ; spf=pass (google.com: domain of delivery_20241013082454.37060254.1194047@bouncest.seekingalpha.com designates 192.64.237.111 as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=delivery_20241013082454.37060254.1194047@bouncest.seekingalpha.com; dmarc=pass (p=QUARANTINE sp=QUARANTINE dis=NONE) header.from=seekingalpha.com DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; s=sailthru; d=seekingalpha.com; h=Date:From:To:Message-ID:Subject:MIME-Version:Content-Type: List-Unsubscribe-Post:List-Unsubscribe; i=subscriptions@seekingalpha.com; bh=sQe7G4bzWW9/+FJDoXilaAhvHydbAoxY3mA5L1c+O8E=; b=V2o66cK5wOvnsy8sJIGrc84x2qpo7B4+0ZgDdDpQ1ZPEAzz23drfBQ0d+bvA8T9hSBjHmuJ3bfYC yha1ToEujbhFuHepn/4PBtxJOvEpYyIQ8zdLSsgYSN4N0nudbynAWvpCEUAch0WY4dS1XSuLnITW szcEnaHRk0CXcUapavQ= DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; s=mt; d=pmta.sailthru.com; h=Date:From:To:Message-ID:Subject:MIME-Version:Content-Type: List-Unsubscribe-Post:List-Unsubscribe; bh=sQe7G4bzWW9/+FJDoXilaAhvHydbAoxY3mA5L1c+O8E=; b=WVc7cyUJ0AU7rYgjy71/z8C5KKYjeAqyBvtHFefDBtk1MKg5mPLZtgryCBaFDurAWu4/5xpNdEKi uCz2gUIvG/4KxCApQiu35UOOdKp7h585HfAgx/FSnjmaBdGE9kTb/7VmGHawg70rz9KybWKiX3OG Yf237fps3uiVmMINxic= Received: from aws1-mta-relay6.sailthru.cloud (10.55.61.156) by pmta19.sailthru.com id h1eu1e3791sv for ; Sun, 13 Oct 2024 07:24:54 -0500 (envelope-from ) Date: Sun, 13 Oct 2024 08:24:54 -0400 (EDT) From: Seeking Alpha To: sterlingwhg@gmail.com Message-ID: <20241013082454.37060254.1194047@sailthru.com> Subject: Alpha Picks: Oct 13th Weekly Market Recap MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_52984571_1772579546.1728822294516" Precedence: bulk x-job: 9033-37060254-20241013 X-Feedback-ID: 9033:37060254:campaign:sailthru X-TM-ID: 20241013082454.37060254.1194047 X-Info: Message sent by sailthru.com customer Seeking Alpha X-Info: We do not permit unsolicited commercial email X-Info: Please report abuse by forwarding complete headers to X-Info: abuse@sailthru.com X-Mailer: sailthru.com X-JMailer: aws-campaign-mailer-20.sailthru.cloud List-Unsubscribe-Post: List-Unsubscribe=One-Click X-Unsubscribe-Web: https://email-st.seekingalpha.com/oc/60c1e5c4dba83e59149ff347m2bvi.plbz/74aa9859 List-Unsubscribe: , X-rpcampaign: stnjl37060254 X-Spam-Status: No, score=-2.1 X-Spam-Score: -20 X-Spam-Bar: -- X-Spam-Flag: NO ------=_Part_52984571_1772579546.1728822294516 Content-Type: text/html; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
3D""
October 13, 2024
=
Alpha Picks 1= 48.79%
S&P 500 52.65%
*Perf= ormance since 7/1/2022. For more details on the performance calculation and= methodology of Alpha Picks, click = here.
<= /td>
October 13, 2024
=
*Perf= ormance since 7/1/2022. For more details on the performance calculation and= methodology of Alpha Picks, click = here.
<= /td>
Weekly Market Recap

=E2=96=BA Major indices experienced mixed movemen= t this week as September consumer inflation came in hotter than expected. T= he Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow were all down early on Thursday following the r= eport.

<= /table>

=E2=96=BA Hurricane Milton hit the Gu= lf Coast of Florida, prompting over 1M residents to evacuate just days afte= r Hurricane Helene=E2=80=99s impacts decimated the Southeastern United Stat= es; insurance losses could cost insurers up to $100B.

=

=E2=96=BA Oil prices advanced Thursday a= mid Middle East tensions. Gold, defense, and energy markets have traded hig= her, with Brent (CO1:COM) rising above $77 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (CL1:COM) approaching $74 a barrel.

=E2=96=BA A historic Big Tech anti-trust case threatens<= /strong> to break up Alphabet, with Google units like Chrome b= rowser and Android splitting from the company as solutions.

=E2=96=BA Crypto.com filed suit against = the SEC to protect the future of crypto, citing the Commission=E2=80=99s un= authorized and unjust regulation and enforcement of the industry.

=
<= table class=3D"row-content stack" align=3D"center" border=3D"0" cellpadding= =3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"mso-table-lspace:0;= mso-table-rspace:0;background-color:#fff;color:#000;width:650px;margin:0 au= to" width=3D"650">

=E2=96= =BA U.S. Treasuries turned positive again amid election uncertainty, CPI, a= nd jobs data, with the benchmark 10-year yield above 4%.

<= /td>

The U.S. CPI report became = a focal point this week, with a projected modest increase of 0.1% for Septe= mber. This data is crucial in guiding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy= , particularly under the current economic circumstances marked by cooling i= nflation trends.

 

September inflation topped expectations, with Headline CPI increasing 2.4% = year-over-year. Shelter experienced a 0.2% M/M increase vs. +0.5% in August= ; food climbed 0.4% vs. August=E2=80=99s +0.1%. Collectively, the two index= es contributed over 75% of the monthly all-items increase, with energy slid= ing 1.9% M/M. The market closely watched for indications in the report that= could signal future rate moves by the Fed, amid broader expectations that = interest rate cuts might continue, albeit at a slower pace than anticipated= earlier. Economic indicators, including wage growth and employment figures= , further add layers to this dynamic, needing careful interpretation by mar= ket analysts.

 

The Septembe= r CPI report remains broadly disinflationary, as highlighted by Seeking Alp= ha A= nalyst Damir Tokic:

"This was a troubling inflation report because shelter rose by only 0.2%, a= nd yet, the core CPI increased by 0.3% M/M, which was higher than expected= =E2=80=A6Given the strong labor market report, and two consecutive 0.30% co= re CPI prints, the Fed is likely to pause the easing campaign in November, = which is not good news for the stock market."

=
<= /td>
<= td class=3D"pad" style=3D"padding-left:20px;padding-right:20px">

Source Link: <= strong>FedWatch tool

According to the <= strong>FedWatch tool, traders anticipate a 25 basis-point cut in November with an 89.1% = probability. Persistent tensions in the Middle East moved oil prices higher= to offset a two-day decline this week. The markets are watching Israel=E2= =80=99s potential response to missile attacks that prompted a rally in gold= , defense, and energy markets. Brent (<= strong>CO1:COM) rose above $77 a barrel, and West Texas Interm= ediate (CL1:COM) a= pproached $74 a barrel. Further escalations that could impact supply chains= could reignite inflation concerns.

Markets are constantly influenced by global economic and geopolitical event= s. If you're looking for a tool that simplifies stock picking by analyzing = financial data to highlight stocks with the strongest investment fundamenta= ls, Alpha Picks o= ffers a more efficient approach to smarter investing. This service leverage= s Seeking Alpha's powerful quantitative stock-picking system, delivering tw= o data-driven stock picks each month, helping investors save time and focus= on high-quality opportunities.

Learn More

Geopolitical Events

Geopolitical tensi= ons have been notably influenced by the ongoing unrest in the Middle East a= nd the economic impact of recent natural disasters. The situation in Israel= has caused ripple effects through global markets, impacting various sector= s and investor sentiments. As the conflict continues to unfold, the potenti= al for its escalation poses risks not only to regional stability but also t= o global supply chains and oil prices. These developments have heightened v= olatility within energy markets as investors closely monitor geopolitical s= hifts that may affect asset valuations and sector performance.

=
iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) sees second-worst trading ses= sion since 2020
=
<= /td>
<= td class=3D"pad" style=3D"padding-left:20px;padding-right:20px">

Source Link= : TradingView, Seeking Alpha

Chinese stocks extended their= rally this week, despite Chinese large-caps experiencing their second-worst tr= ading session since 2020 on Tuesday, citing a lack of stimulus= measures from the Chinese government to revive the economy. Equity markets= in Asia-Pacific countries led single-country performance in the last four = weeks, with optimism tricking into Hong Kong markets.

=
=
Over The Last 4 Weeks, China=E2=80=99s Equity Market Rallied
=

Hurricane Milton h= it the Gulf Coast of Florida, prompting over 1M residents to evacuate just = days after Hurricane Helene=E2=80=99s impacts decimated the Southeastern Un= ited States. Milton, which reached Category 5 status and had vast destructi= ve potential, has disrupted operations across multiple industries, promptin= g mass evacuations and significant economic implications. Projections estim= ate that Hurricane Milton could lead to over $100 billion in economic losse= s, with its impact touching about 2.8% of the U.S. GDP. Air= lines canceled flights, and companies paused their operations = to mitigate risks. Sectors such as tourism, energy, and retail braced for s= ubstantial financial impacts, with Orlando and Tampa airports shutting down= operations. Disney and other major attractions preemptively closed and fue= l supply chains were strained, highlighting the widespread repercussions of= the natural disaster.

= <= /tr>
GICS Sector Performance

This week, technol= ogy experienced a comeback ahead of Q3 earnings, with tech, energy, and com= munications sectors leading the markets over the last month. The AI-frenzy = and semiconductors have paved the way for a surge in tech stocks; software = companies are also experiencing high growth.

=
Technology is the best-performing sector over the last month
<= table class=3D"row-content stack" align=3D"center" border=3D"0" cellpadding= =3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"mso-table-lspace:0;= mso-table-rspace:0;background-color:#fff;border-radius:0;color:#000;width:6= 50px;margin:0 auto" width=3D"650">
=
<= /td>

During the week, F= inancials and Energy sectors showed mixed resilience, driven in part by ant= icipated economic adjustments and volatile global conditions. Despite a mod= est rebound in oil prices fueled by geopolitical tensions in the Middle Eas= t and the promise of economic stimulus from China, the Energy sector displa= yed strength amidst a volatile market landscape. Companies within this sect= or, like ConocoPhillips (COP) and Devon = Energy (DVN), have benefitted from shift= ing supply and demand dynamics, showcasing strong profitability and growth = potential with seven consecutive sessions of gains.

Seeking Alpha's Qu= ant ratings have highlighted strong buy recommendations for several top energy stocks= , further underscoring the sector's robust performance. The en= ergy sector was buoyed by strategic investments and China=E2=80=99s renewed= economic undertakings, while excitement over upcoming earnings reports inj= ected momentum into Financials.

Despite Large-Cap = Growth (IWF) outperforming Large-Cap Val= ue (IWD) over the last week and month, t= raders have considered a potential shift from growth to value stocks. As gr= owth stocks continue to grapple with heightened optimism and hefty valuatio= ns, with many positioned in the technology sector, we=E2=80=99ve experience= d some rotation. The ongoing pressures from antitrust scrutiny and uncertai= n demand for tech hardware further weigh on the growth outlook. Consequentl= y, market sentiment appears increasingly favorable toward value stocks as i= nvestors navigate the cautious landscape, particularly in the current macro= economic context that features elevated growth stock valuations.

=
Over the last month, Large-Cap Growth outperformed Large-Cap Va= lue
<= table class=3D"row-content stack" align=3D"center" border=3D"0" cellpadding= =3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"mso-table-lspace:0;= mso-table-rspace:0;background-color:#fff;border-radius:0;color:#000;width:6= 50px;margin:0 auto" width=3D"650">
=
<= /td>
<= td class=3D"pad" style=3D"padding-left:20px;padding-right:20px">

Dividend-yielding = securities like Manulife Financial (MFC)= and Synchrony Financial (SYF) gained at= tention as investors moved toward safer harbor investments, cautiously bala= ncing yield and risk. Largely driven by the prospects of economic slowdown = and high valuations of growth equities, the current market environment has = set the stage for a potential rotation from growth stocks to value stocks, = as investors look for stable returns amidst uncertainty. This move is suppo= rted by expectations of declining interest rates, which typically bolster v= alue stocks by enhancing their relative appeal compared to growth stocks wi= th elevated PE ratios. Notably, economic forecasts indicating a deceleratio= n in GDP growth and climbing recession odds, as projected by financial inst= itutions like JPMorgan, reinforce this outlook. The dividends and stability= offered by value stocks become particularly attractive in such an environm= ent.

 

In conclusion, the= outlook for value stocks seems more promising given the current macro back= drop, characterized by towering growth stock valuations and a broadening pr= eference for dividends and stability. This perspective gains additional tra= ction when considering the moderating economic forecasts and potential shif= ts in monetary policy supporting a rotation toward value equities.
<= td>
Crypto

Bitcoin experience= d a brie= f rally above $64,000 on Monday following a robust Jobs Report= . The crypto sector has faced pressures from tightened U.S. regulatory scru= tiny and fluctuations due to Middle East conflicts affecting overall market= positioning. Crypto markets have been under considerable strain due partly= to recent legal challenges and notable developments, as = Crypto.com filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exc= hange Commission ((SEC)) citing the Commission=E2=80=99s unauthorized and u= njust regulation and enforcement of the industry. This litigation follows a= Wells notice indicating the SEC's intent to sue the exchange for operating= as an unregistered broker-dealer. Crypto.com's litigation highlights ongoi= ng tensions between regulatory bodies and digital asset platforms, reflecti= ng broader industry scrutiny, including previous actions against entities l= ike Kraken and Coinbase.

=
=
Cryptocurrencies Update: Markets Focus on Soft Jobless Claims, = UofM Sentiment
=
=

These regulatory c= hallenges pose significant headwinds for the crypto market by increasing un= certainty and possibly discouraging institutional and retail participation.= As the market grapples with these regulatory confrontations, Bitcoin's res= ilience remains tested. The increased pressure from legal obstacles exacerb= ates existing volatility linked to geopolitical tensions. These factors con= tribute to a challenging landscape for cryptocurrencies, which are already = sensitive to shifts in regulatory policies and global economic stability.

<= /table>

The U.S. dollar maintained strength, with the Bloomberg Doll= ar Spot Index rising. Increased Treasury yields and foreign investment flow= s supported this momentum, though the pound and euro weakened against the d= ollar due to differing central bank policies.

<= td class=3D"pad" style=3D"padding-left:20px;padding-right:20px">

In the current mar= ket landscape, the Japanese yen continued to face depreciation pressures, l= osing 0.6% against the dollar. Geopolitical tensions and global economic co= nditions influenced investor sentiment, contributing to the yen's decline. = Heightened yields on U.S. Treasuries further exacerbated this trend, making= the dollar a more attractive safe haven.

 

Meanwhile, Chinese= currencies have remained under pressure due to skepticism surrounding Beij= ing's stimulus measures. The mood was sobered further by weaker-than-expect= ed consumer activity during the Golden Week holiday, casting a shadow on Ch= ina's broader economic rebound efforts. This has contributed to complex dyn= amics in currency exchanges, impacting the Chinese yuan and necessitating c= areful monitoring by investors.

=
Chart of the Week - What=E2=80=99s Behind the Inflation Report?=
<= table class=3D"row-content stack" align=3D"center" border=3D"0" cellpadding= =3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" role=3D"presentation" style=3D"mso-table-lspace:0;= mso-table-rspace:0;background-color:#fff;color:#000;width:650px;margin:0 au= to" width=3D"650">

September=E2=80=99= s U.S. CPI report likely added more uncertainty about the Federal Reserve= =E2=80=99s stance on interest rate cuts through next year. The headline and= core gauge beat economists=E2=80=99 expectations by 0.1 percentage points,= notching 2.4% and 3.3% on an annual basis, respectively.

The label values represent September 2024 in the chart below. The energy co= mponent of inflation was -6.8% y/y, contributing to the headline print fall= ing well below the core gauge, which strips out volatile components to refl= ect underlying price pressures.

The largest contributor to CPI - shelter - clocked in at 4.9% y/y, down fro= m 7.2% one year ago. There were notable gains in medical care services and = electricity, rising to 3.6% and 3.7% from -2.6% and 2.6% versus 1 year ago,= respectively.

=
Alpha Picks

What is Alpha Picks? Glo= bal economic and geopolitical events are key drivers of market fluctuations= , influencing stock prices, investor sentiment, and broader financial trend= s. These forces often cause market volatility as investors respond to both = short-term risks and long-term growth opportunities. Understanding these sh= ifts is essential, as global events can quickly alter market conditions, af= fecting sectors and individual stocks. Alpha Picks is a data-driven model t= hat offers Strong Buy-rated stocks believed to have the highest probability= of capital appreciation based on a proprietary quantitative model. Two =E2= =80=98Strong Buy=E2=80=99 rated stocks are selected monthly on the first tr= ading day of the month and the 15th or the closest trading day thereafter. = Alpha Picks' portfolio has delivered an incredible total return of 149% vs.= the S&P 500's 53% since its launch on July 1, 2022. Eight out of 36 Alpha = Picks have returned over 100% to the portfolio. In addition, 33 out of 36 A= lpha Picks met or beat recent EPS earnings expectations. Historically, Alph= a Picks has maintained both revenue and earnings growth rates that are far = superior to the S&P 500. 

=
Alpha Picks Outpaces S&P 500 In Revenue Growth 
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=

The Alpha Picks po= rtfolio valuation framework is far cheaper than the S&P 500, helping invest= ors potentially achieve stronger growth at a discount. Alpha Picks=E2=80=99= 11.75% forward revenue growth from February 2023 through August 2024 is ou= tperforming the S&P 500=E2=80=99s 6.67%.

=
Alpha Picks Offers A Significantly Cheaper Valuation th= an the S&P 500

What has Alpha Picks done lately? Alpha = Picks=E2=80=99 total portfolio return has crushed the S&P 500 over one-mont= h, three-month, and YTD performance.

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Alpha Picks=E2=80= =99 quantitative-driven approach has resulted in the selection of stocks li= ke Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which at the time of its pick in 2022 was t= rading for $8.53 per share. SMCI currently trades for over $45 per share an= d has traded as high as $122.90 per share! While past performance is no gua= rantee of future results, Alpha Picks=E2=80=99 four most recent additions h= ave returned between 4% and over 30%.
Economic Rundown

=E2=96=BA FOMC: The Fed is unlikely to lower rat= es by another half a percentage point (0.5%) amid the strong September Jobs= Report. While a =E2=80=98substantial majority=E2=80=99 favored a large cut= in September, FOMC Meeting Minutes revealed some pushback by officials. Th= e Fed remains confident that inflation is on a sustainable path toward thei= r 2% target, and the majority of officials prefer a more gradual pace for c= uts.

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=E2=96=BA Inflation: The U.S. has moderated in recent months, with CPI seeing a slight 0.2% upt= ick from August. With a strong labor market and two straight 0.30% core CPI= prints, the Fed may pause its easing campaign next month.

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=E2=96=BA U.S. jobs report: Despite the devastation of hurricanes and worker strikes that have = disrupted companies and workplaces, the strong September Jobs Report exceeded economists= =E2=80=99 expectations. The U.S. added 254,000 nonfarm jobs in September, i= ts biggest month for job growth since March, topping estimates by 100,000 a= nd creating optimism about the labor market=E2=80=99s health before the U.S= . Presidential Election.

=
<= /table>

Monday, October 14 

Pe= arson plc (PSO)
OPEC= Monthly Report

<= /table>

Tuesday, October 15 

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 

=
=

Wednesday, October 16

Mo= rgan Stanley (MS)
U.S. Bancorp (USB)

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Thursday, October 17 

Netflix, Inc. (N= FLX)
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (T= SM)

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Friday, October 18

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Th= e Proctor & Gamble Co. (PG)<= br>American Express Co. (AXP)
=

Download Seeking Alpha for yo= ur Phone or Tablet:

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*Performance is as of October 11, 2024. Alpha Picks adds two stocks per= month - on the closest business day to the 1st & 15th. Alpha Picks removes= stocks based on rating thresholds (i.e., when a rating changes to a sell).= Performance is calculated and reported daily using time-weighted returns. = For more details on the performance calculation and methodology of Alpha Pi= cks, click here= .
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Alpha Picks doe= s not take account of your objectives or your financial situation and does = not offer any personalized investment advice. Any content and tools on the = platform are offered for information purposes only. Any views or opinions e= xpressed may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha i= s not a licensed securities dealer, broker, U.S. investment adviser, or inv= estment bank.

Sent by Seeking Alp= ha, 244 5th Ave, Suite 2705, New York, NY 10001

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3D"Seeking
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