Return-Path: Delivered-To: info@sterlingcal.com Received: from reseller401.webserversystems.com by reseller401.webserversystems.com with LMTP id sEOCJUtH/GapywkAchKAPA (envelope-from ) for ; Tue, 01 Oct 2024 14:02:35 -0500 Return-path: Envelope-to: info@sterlingcal.com Delivery-date: Tue, 01 Oct 2024 14:02:35 -0500 Received: from sender-232.fsu3.zcsend.net ([135.84.81.232]:37235) by reseller401.webserversystems.com with esmtps (TLS1.2) tls TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_256_GCM_SHA384 (Exim 4.96.2) (envelope-from ) id 1svi8o-002ilO-16 for info@sterlingcal.com; Tue, 01 Oct 2024 14:02:35 -0500 Received: from 172.30.236.27 by sender-232.fsu3.zcsend.net with SMTP id 172780934116200747; Tue, 01 Oct 2024 12:02:21 -0700 DKIM-Signature: a=rsa-sha256; b=I/u4KrcvoXOLqnAd6CKFNLU0N4NRZOttDgMog0Lyk7VcgBYOyujw/147fJboA1IHnEy7lWPTOUuBNtYApdnW/3phMuFFOsvjoRQy49/fth5tmlK+JZuAYLqdaHWX6j324Fof/d73J+w3pHkxBSZdz4S8jdNL/4HFgzPoMqLLRkw=; c=simple/simple; s=81024; d=staalx.com; v=1; bh=v3iHoPl06ZiW5uMLslJZBKIJjWe6sOp8jg5gzJ3y4RU=; h=date:from:to:message-id:subject:mime-version:content-type:list-unsubscribe:list-unsubscribe-post:x-csa-complaints; DKIM-Signature: a=rsa-sha256; b=Z1XIbcD5Q/Q/0KVuZxCgBd6jz4XmrvsmkxHVBSp6FfdEU4o37sAQp0wWy9anRClyG5VSW2S6gL4J0EulUKL+/oaCrJTspeV0b7KqkXLZ6sJvsYVlhXZsSMqytyB0f5MYYk3GhVUD3ec5RaEOWvo50O4/oCy5RLwBU4LmKD5jZtQ=; c=simple/simple; s=k1; d=mail3.zgph.zcmail.net; v=1; bh=v3iHoPl06ZiW5uMLslJZBKIJjWe6sOp8jg5gzJ3y4RU=; h=date:from:to:message-id:subject:mime-version:content-type:list-unsubscribe:list-unsubscribe-post:x-csa-complaints; Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2024 12:02:21 -0700 (PDT) From: "StaalX" To: Andrew Sterling Message-ID: Subject: Prices rally in Asia MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_1457325_1064271989.1727809341132" List-Unsubscribe: , List-Unsubscribe-Post: List-Unsubscribe=One-Click X-CSA-Complaints: csa-complaints@eco.de Reply-To: campaign_769017310+zcreply.1c08f772a3d4b5c1@zcsend.net X-JID: 3zbbfd3107516e2747240afb213f83dea99f3114ab6bc11315f109b5f5525d0f45.1c08f772a3d47e0a X-campaignid: zohocampaigns.3zbbfd3107516e2747240afb213f83dea99f3114ab6bc11315f109b5f5525d0f45.zcb.1c08f772a3d4b5c1.11699e4c0989622 X-Zoho-RID: zohocampaigns.3zbbfd3107516e2747240afb213f83dea99f3114ab6bc11315f109b5f5525d0f45.zcb.1c08f772a3d4b5c1.11699e4c0989622 X-Mailer: Zoho Campaigns X-Report-Abuse: , X-Spam-Status: No, score=-2.1 X-Spam-Score: -20 X-Spam-Bar: -- X-Spam-Flag: NO ------=_Part_1457325_1064271989.1727809341132 Content-Type: text/plain;charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable https://staalx.com October 1, 2024 (Scroll down for Steelorbis news) News from the Market http://staalx.com Prices rally in Asia Will North American long products prices follow? On the heels of the large economic stimulus announced by the Chinese govern= ment, the rebar and wire rod prices went up $50-$60 /mt in a week's span. I= ron ore and coking coal went up 12%, the largest daily increase in many yea= rs. There is no doubt that the Chinese futures markethas a lot to do with t= hese huge increases. In North America, we are not as dialed into steel futu= res markets as much as the steel mills and consumers are in Asia. What's mo= re, these types of instruments are traded generally by non-steel people and= any government announcement makes a huge impact in the short term. But at = the end, real supply and demand find its real equilibrium.=20 Still, for many months the sentiment was so negative, Asian physical and fu= ture market participants have been mostly shorting, that is selling before = buying the products. Now the market has turned significantly, short sellers= will need to hurry up and buy the products they have sold already. That wi= ll create its short term strong demand and this rally may go on for a few m= ore weeks or months. In the meantime, in NorthAmerica we are not seeing any signs of this irrati= onal exuberance that is happening in South East Asia. Hot rolled coils and = other long products are happily boring and stable inthe US. Unless we catch= the Asian wildfire here, there shouldn't be any reason for price increases= overall for October or even for November. Scrap is sort of sideways too bu= t no doubt it can get influenced by the strong iron ore gains and start mov= ing the costs up here. Most American steel consumers are operating with very lean inventories, wit= h nothing in theimport pipeline and even small bumps of demand may create b= ig price increases and shortages in the short run. There are no safety stoc= ks and there is too much faith in the North American supply. This could pro= ve to be a recipe for disaster, once again. http://staalx.com Steel Solutions at Your Fingertips! Discover the latest inventory of premium steel products at unmatched prices= . From rebar to merchant bars, we=E2=80=99ve got everything you need to com= plete your projects on time and within budget. Browse http://staalx.com StaalX now and take advantage of our special offer= s! http://staalx.com http://steelorbis.com From our content partner, SteelOrbis US import rebar and wire rod pricing flat as construction-related demand re= mains limited Thursday, 20 September 2024 23:36:35 (GMT+3) San Diego US import rebar and wire rod markets were unchanged this week in limited ne= w trade as markets remain well supplied given current low demand for constr= uction-related structural steel, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week. Little news of new mill discounting programs was also noted in day to day s= pot markets, indicating that a potential price bottom near current $34.75-3= 5.25/cwt import price levels ($695-705/nt or $766-777/mt) may have been rea= ched, market insiders said. Lower priced scrap also was putting downward pressure on US long steel mark= ets. In the US Midwest, September scrap pricing for most grades settled sid= eways to August, while shredded scrap was down $20/nt ($20.30/mt) to $350-3= 60/nt ($358-386/mt). October sorag at last report is mixed with some contac= ts expecting weak sideways if an Oct. 1 dockworker strike occurs and US Eas= t Coast exports are cut, while others expect strong sideways to September i= f the strike is averted and mills emerge stronger for October supply given = fewer outages at their operating mills versus September amid continued repo= rts of tight supplies. "We haven't seen a change in import pricing versus last week," said one US = Gulf Coast rebar market watcher. "We're hearing reports of sub-$35.00/cwt b= ids out there, but its mostly low ballers out there fishing for orders." Contacts said current long steel demand remains limited even though a recen= t stimulus packages in China and a Sept. 18 Federal Reserve US interest rat= e out could improve construction-related demand longer term "Buyers are taking a wait and see attitude regarding new purchases," he sai= d. "Demand is not really there yet, and people are trying to see if the new= China stimulus sticks" Recently, the People's Bank of China announced that the Reserve Requirement= Ratio (RRR) would be reduced a half point. On the US East Coast, import rebar on a loaded truck basis is reported stea= dy at $35.25/cowt., with its Gulf Coast equivalent steady as well at $35.25= /cwt. ($705/nt or $777/mt). Imports from Egypt are last discussed unchanged from seven days ago at $35.= 00/cwt, ($700/nt or $772/mt), while quotes from Turkey and Bulgaria were al= so flat at $35.25/cwt. and $35.00/cwt., respectively. In the wire rod markets, imported product is discussed steady in thin trade= at $35.50-37.00/cwt ($710-740/nt or $783-818/mt). Market insiders say US East Coast exports of containerized steel scrag, a k= ey indicator of long steel pricing, might be trimmed starting in October as= less than a week remains for members of the international Longshoreman's A= ssociation (ILA) to reach an agreement with the United States Maritime Alli= ance to avert an expected Oct. 1 strike at US East Coast and Gulf Coast por= ts. While the groups remain at an impasse over wages and automation issues,= a strike could affect nearly 43 percent of all containerized imports and e= xports, that come into and move out of the US. Maritime experts estimate each day the strike continues will back up supply= between 4-8 days, with a daily bill for lost products and services amounti= ng to about US $5 billion, according to an analyst at JP Morgan. Recent conversations regarding the strike with SteelOrbis contacts indicate= s limited concern given that demand for US scrap remains tepid overseas wit= h the use of cheap billet as a scrap alternative continuing. "We haven't really seen much change lately in rebar pricing," said another = Gulf Coast rebar insider. The dockworker's strike affect in the US Gulf wil= l be very minimal as those labor disputes tend to get settled within a week= or so. " SteelOrbis shipping contacts also report minimal concern from their custome= rs over the potential impact of a strike. "We do have bookings off the East Coast for October, but if a strike occurs= they'll have to wait," she said. They won't be able to bring in containers= , and would be able to re-route or wait it out." Another contact reported recently that imports remain limited at most ports= because of low-priced and heavily-discounted domestic supplies available t= hrough US mills. Imports simply can't compete at current prices, they say. "There's not that much bar coming in right now, and many Texas-based non-un= ion ports won't be affected by the strike," one Gulf Coast rebar importer t= old SteelOrbis recently. The most likely areas to be affected are the North= east and the West Coast, where much of the trade will be diverted." US long steel markets steady with scant demand, inventory draw downs, polit= ical risk Thursday, 26 September 2024 20:50:33 (GMT+3) San Diego US domestic rebar and wire rod markets were steady this week as low demand = for structural steel continues and anticipated inventory draw downs continu= e to limit new demand for long steel products, market insiders told Steel O= rbis this week. Contacts report a growing level of perceived risk ahead of = the November US presidential election, which is limiting interest in forwar= d steel markets, they said. Insiders say draw downs of existing inventories "on the ground" are importa= nt because taxes on stocks onsite will be assessed as of Jan. 1, they say. = Sources said recently that many of their customers already have started to = use up bulging inventory, limiting new spot market activity, and that as of= November 1, few of them will be buying much new product to replace invento= ry draw down ahead of the new year. "While we're hearing lower domestic rebar prices out there for January in t= he $34.50-834.75/cwt range, as of yet, nobody's selling because few are wil= ling to take the risk ahead of the US elections in November," one rebar mar= ket insider told SteelOrbis. "They want to see who wins the election and wh= ether their policies will be favorable to steel." In the weekly spot markets, domestic rebar on an FOB mill basis is assessed= in a tighter range, though steady from seven days ago at $36.00-$36.50/cwt= . ($720-730/nt or $794-805/mt), versus 335-37.50/cwt. ($700-750/nt or $772-= 827/mt) reported during the week of Sept. 16. New spot activity remains thi= n, with a noticeable lack of reports of continued mill discounting programs= heard. Weekly prices for domestic wire rod were reported unchanged at an average o= f $35.75/cwt off $1.25/cwt., ($25/nt or $27.56/mt) from earlier $37.00/cwt = Steel Orbis assessments. Opinions remain mixed as to whether rebar and wire rod prices are likely to= continue lower, as supplies on the ground remain high, contacts say. Also,= little affect has been seen since the US Federal Reserve cut overnight len= ding rates by one-half point during the week of Sept. 16. The current rate = is posted at 4.75-5.0 percent, and further rate cuts are expected in Novemb= er, shortly after the US presidential election, market insiders said. On a global front, concern about the potential impact that a pending US doc= kworker strike could have on the movement of steel imports and mostly conta= inerized shipments from US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports was noticeably l= ess this week, with many expecting any affects to be minimal, and the strik= e to be of limited duration. "My contacts don't expect that the strike will even occur because we have a= n approaching presidential election." said one East Coast rebar market insi= der. "However, if it does happen, imports (of long steel) already are way o= ff, so there will be a limited impact on US supply on the ground." Market experts said each day that the strike ocours could cause a backlog o= f 4-5 days for containerized cargo stuck outside ports, with the bill for l= ost goods and services estimated recently by analysts at JP Morgan in exces= s of $5 billion per day. At last report, members of the International Longshoreman's Association (IL= A) and the US Maritime Alliance remain at odds over wages and issues regard= ing port automation. The parties have until Sept. 30 to arrive at a comprom= ise, otherwise a strike will commence on Oct. 1. US October scrap seen mixed pending outcome of East Coast, Gulf Coast dockw= orker strike=20 Friday, 27 September 2024 02:14:41 (GMT+3) San Diego US ferrous scrap pricing for the month of October is now called mixed, with= those expecting an Oct. 1 dockworker strike to occur at US East Coast and = Gulf Coast port facilities calling for a weak sideways settle versus Septem= ber scrap values, while those that think the strike can be averted call for= October to settle sideways to strong sideways as export demand for contain= erized steel scrap will likely remain reasonably strong, market insiders to= ld SteelOrbis this week. The October outlook differs from the week of Sept. 18, when insiders said O= ctober scrap was seen sideways to higher, unchanged from a week earlier, as= supply remained reduced at local scrap collection points, and fewer US ste= el making plants were expected to be offline for maintenance next month, re= sulting in improved scrap buying from milis, they said. Recent reports indicate about 17 mills were in outage during September, wit= h that number expected to drop to 14-15 millis during October, which should= improve mills' demand for scrap, market insiders said. "There's some trepidation starting to emerge in the East Coast scrap market= s about the strike," said one East Coast scrap market insider. "One of the = things that's keeping the East Coast scrap markets strong lately is exports= . If that goes away with the strike. October scrap could be pulled down." Industry reports estimate that about 43 percent of all US imports, includin= g containerized scrap, flow through the US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports = currently subject to interruption should a dockworkers strike occur after t= he Sept. 30 current six-year contract expiration. Contract talks between th= e International Longshoreman's Association (ILA) and the US Maritime Allian= ce (USMX) currently remain stalled, and the Biden administration still has = no plans on tap to institute Taft-Harley to break up a strike should one oc= cur on Oct. 1. On March 15, 2020. Biden was endorsed by the ILA for president. While no ne= w endorsement from the ILA could be found concerning the Democratic party t= his year, the executive board of the International Longshore and Wharehouse= Union (ILWU), which operates on the US West Coast, recently has endorsed K= amala Harris for president. Regardless of whether the strike occurs or not, insiders say "Scrap intake = (at yards) remains way off," with many expecting to see the mills emerge as= larger buyers in October, because they will have fewer units off for maint= enance versus September, "so they'll need to buy more scrap. Recent industry reports indicated that about 1.8 million tons of steel maki= ng capacity will be offline from September to December as a result of plann= ed maintenance outages. Many of these outages, market analysts told Steel O= rbis, have been moved up 30-80 days this year so that mills can sell earlie= r into historically higher priced markets forecast by analysts to occur dur= ing the fourth quarter 2024 and Q1 2025 "We're calling the October market sideways right now, however, there's a po= ssibility for strong sideways if the strike doesn't occur and exports out o= f the US East Coast remain strong," another East Coast scrap insider said. = "If the strike does occur and export demand is cut, the market could settle= weak sideways to September, however, supply remains limited so if the mill= s come out as strong buyers, sideways pricing could still happen. Insiders said as demand for finished steel products such as appliances and = automobiles continues to lag due to ongoing US economic conditions, contact= s suggest tier | and tier II manufacturing capacity has been reduced by bet= ween 20-30 percent, thus. reducing the amount of available prime grade scra= p normally generated by those sources. Sources added that the Sept. 18 Fede= ral Reserve's half-point interest rate cut, while positive, will likely tak= e time to trickle down into improved demand level for finished steel and co= nstruction-related structural steel products. Another SteelOrbis contact had a more optimistic opinion regarding the pric= e of US scrap in the approaching 4th quarter. He said recent moves by the C= hinese to stimulate their flagging economy could improve demand for scrap a= nd structural steel. "Scrap is unlikely to go down as we approach winter," he said. "If the mark= et feels bullish about the entire Chinese stimulus lasting more than a mont= h, its unlikely that there's much downsides on materials or finished goods = short term." Recently, the People's Bank of China announced that the Reserve Requirement= Ratio (RRR) would be reduced a half point in order to provide "much needed= market stimulus." During the September buy cycle, Midwest prime busheling scrap settled at $3= 55-375/gt ($361-381/mt) delivered to mill. September shredded scrap decline= d $20/gt ($22/mt) to $350-$360/gt ($356-366/mt) while September HMS#1 settl= ed sideways at $320/gt ($325/mt). P&S scrap settled sideways for September = at $345-355/gt ($351-381/mt) delivered to mill, insiders said. On the US East Coast, September busheling scrap settled sideways to August = at $350-385/gt ($356-391/mt) delivered to mill while shredded settled sidew= ays to August at $370/gt ($376/mt). HMS#1 and P&S scrap settled sideways at= $200-315/gt ($295- 320/mt), and $320-340/gt ($325-345/mt) delivered to mil= l, respectively, market insiders told Steel Orbis. Do you have any questions? Check out our FAQ! Check out the most frequently asked questions about the service and product= s of StaalX. We are always here to chat with you in the chat boxes from the= site or on the support telephone number below. https://www.staalx.com/faqs FAQs Contact us support@staalx.com or +1 (708) 697-3227 Follow StaalX on https://www.linkedin.com/company/rebar-revolution https://www.linkedin.com/company/rebar-revolution LinkedIn https://www.facebook.com/Staal.X/ https://www.facebook.com/Staal.X/ Facebook https://www.instagram.com/staal.x/ https://www.instagram.com/staal.x/ Instagram https://www.twitter.com/rebarrevolution https://www.twitter.com/rebarrevolution X Want to change how you receive these emails? You can https://qprdy-zgpvh.maillist-manage.net/ua/optout?od=3D3zbbfd310751= 6e2747240afb213f83dea99f3114ab6bc11315f109b5f5525d0f45&rd=3D1c08f772a3d4b5c= 1&sd=3D1c08f772a3d4a91d&n=3D11699e4c0989622 Unsubscribe or https://qprdy-zg= pvh.maillist-manage.net/ua/commpref?od=3D3zbbfd3107516e2747240afb213f83dea9= 9f3114ab6bc11315f109b5f5525d0f45&rd=3D1c08f772a3d4b5c1&sd=3D1c08f772a3d4a91= d&n=3D11699e4c0989622 Update your preferences ------=_Part_1457325_1064271989.1727809341132 Content-Type: text/html;charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Prices rally in Asia =09 =09 Will North American long products prices follow? =
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October 1, 2024  (Scroll down for Steelorbis news)

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News fro= m the Market

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Prices rally in Asia


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Will North Americ= an long products prices follow? 

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On the = heels of the large economic stimulus announced by the Chinese government, t= he rebar and wire rod prices went up $50-$60 /mt in a week's span.  &n= bsp; Iron ore and coking coal went up 12%, the largest daily increase in ma= ny years.  There is no doubt that the Chinese futures market has = a lot to do with these huge increases.  In North America, we are not a= s dialed into steel futures markets as much as the steel mills and consumer= s are in Asia.  What's more, these types of instruments are traded gen= erally by non-steel people and any government announcement makes a huge imp= act in the short term.  But at the end, real supply and demand find it= s real equilibrium.    


Still, for many months th= e sentiment was so negative, Asian physical and future market participants = have been mostly shorting, that is selling before buying the products. = ; Now the market has turned significantly, short sellers will need to hurry= up and buy the products they have sold already.  That will create its= short term strong demand and this rally may go on for a few more weeks or = months.  


In the meantime, in North America we ar= e not seeing any signs of this irrational exuberance that is happening in S= outh East Asia.  Hot rolled coils and other long products are happily = boring and stable in the US.  Unless we catch the Asian wildfire = here, there shouldn't be any reason for price increases overall for October= or even for November.  Scrap is sort of sideways too but no doubt it = can get influenced by the strong iron ore gains and start moving the costs = up here.  


Most American steel consumers are operating= with very lean inventories, with nothing in the import pipeline and e= ven small bumps of demand may create big price increases and shortages in t= he short run.  There are no safety stocks and there is too much faith = in the North American supply.  This could prove to be a recipe for dis= aster, once again. 

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Steel Solutions at Your F= ingertips!


Discover the latest inventory of premium steel produc= ts at unmatched prices. From rebar to merchant bars, we’ve got everyt= hing you need to complete your projects on time and within budget. 


 Br= owse = StaalX now and take advantage of our special offers!

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From our con= tent partner, SteelOrbis

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US import rebar and wire rod pricing flat as co= nstruction-related demand remains limited 

Thursday, 20 September 2024 23:36:35 (GMT+3) San= Diego 

US imp= ort rebar and wire rod markets were unchanged this week in limited new trad= e as markets remain well supplied given current low demand for construction= -related structural steel, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.

Little news of new mill = discounting programs was also noted in day to day spot markets, indicating = that a potential price bottom near current $34.75-35.25/cwt import price le= vels ($695-705/nt or $766-777/mt) may have been reached, market insiders sa= id. 
Lower pri= ced scrap also was putting downward pressure on US long steel markets. In t= he US Midwest, September scrap pricing for most grades settled sideways to = August, while shredded scrap was down $20/nt ($20.30/mt) to $350-360/nt ($3= 58-386/mt). October sorag at last report is mixed with some contacts expect= ing weak sideways if an Oct. 1 dockworker strike occurs and US East Coast e= xports are cut, while others expect strong sideways to September if the str= ike is averted and mills emerge stronger for October supply given fewer out= ages at their operating mills versus September amid continued reports of ti= ght supplies. 

"We haven't seen a change in import pricing versus last week," s= aid one US Gulf Coast rebar market watcher. "We're hearing reports of = sub-$35.00/cwt bids out there, but its mostly low ballers out there fishing= for orders." 

Contacts said current long steel demand remains limited even though a= recent stimulus packages in China and a Sept. 18 Federal Reserve US intere= st rate out could improve construction-related demand longer term 

"Buyers are takin= g a wait and see attitude regarding new purchases," he said. "Dem= and is not really there yet, and people are trying to see if the new China = stimulus sticks" 

Recently, the People's Bank of China announced that the Reserve Re= quirement Ratio (RRR) would be reduced a half point.

On the US East Coast, import rebar on a l= oaded truck basis is reported steady at $35.25/cowt., with its Gulf Coast e= quivalent steady as well at $35.25/cwt. ($705/nt or $777/mt). <= /span>

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Imports from Egypt are las= t discussed unchanged from seven days ago at $35.00/cwt, ($700/nt or $772/m= t), while quotes from Turkey and Bulgaria were also flat at $35.25/cwt. and= $35.00/cwt., respectively. 

In the wire rod markets, imported product is discussed stead= y in thin trade at $35.50-37.00/cwt ($710-740/nt or $783-818/mt). 

Market insiders say US= East Coast exports of containerized steel scrag, a key indicator of long s= teel pricing, might be trimmed starting in October as less than a week rema= ins for members of the international Longshoreman's Association (ILA) to re= ach an agreement with the United States Maritime Alliance to avert an expec= ted Oct. 1 strike at US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. While the groups r= emain at an impasse over wages and automation issues, a strike could affect= nearly 43 percent of all containerized imports and exports, that come into= and move out of the US.

Maritime expe= rts estimate each day the strike continues will back up supply between 4-8 = days, with a daily bill for lost products and services amounting to about U= S $5 billion, according to an analyst at JP Morgan.

Recent conversations regarding the strike = with SteelOrbis contacts indicates limited concern given that demand for US= scrap remains tepid overseas with the use of cheap billet as a scrap alter= native continuing. 

= "We haven't really seen much change lately in rebar pricing,&quo= t; said another Gulf Coast rebar insider. The dockworker's strike affect in= the US Gulf will be very minimal as those labor disputes tend to get settl= ed within a week or so."

<= div>"We do have bookings off th= e East Coast for October, but if a strike occurs they'll have to wait,"= ; she said. They won't be able to bring in containers, and would be able to= re-route or wait it out." 

Another contact reported recently that imports remain = limited at most ports because of low-priced and heavily-discounted domestic= supplies available through US mills. Imports simply can't compete at curre= nt prices, they say. 


=
US long steel markets steady with scant demand, in= ventory draw downs, political risk 
=
Thursday, 26 September 2024 20:50:33 (GMT+3) San = Diego 
=
US dome= stic rebar and wire rod markets were steady this week as low demand for str= uctural steel continues and anticipated inventory draw downs continue to li= mit new demand for long steel products, market insiders told Steel Orbis th= is week. Contacts report a growing level of perceived risk ahead of the Nov= ember US presidential election, which is limiting interest in forward steel= markets, they said. 

Insiders say draw downs of existing inventories "on the ground= " are important because taxes on stocks onsite will be assessed as of = Jan. 1, they say. Sources said recently that many of their customers alread= y have started to use up bulging inventory, limiting new spot market activi= ty, and that as of November 1, few of them will be buying much new product = to replace inventory draw down ahead of the new year.

"While we're hearing lower domestic= rebar prices out there for January in the $34.50-834.75/cwt range, as of y= et, nobody's selling because few are willing to take the risk ahead of the = US elections in November," one rebar market insider told SteelOrbis. &= quot;They want to see who wins the election and whether their policies will= be favorable to steel."

In the weekly spot markets, domestic rebar on an FOB mill basis = is assessed in a tighter range, though steady from seven days ago at $36.00= -$36.50/cwt. ($720-730/nt or $794-805/mt), versus 335-37.50/cwt. ($700-750/= nt or $772-827/mt) reported during the week of Sept. 16. New spot activity = remains thin, with a noticeable lack of reports of continued mill discounti= ng programs heard.

= Weekly prices for domestic wire rod were reported unchanged at an average o= f $35.75/cwt off $1.25/cwt., ($25/nt or $27.56/mt) from earlier $37.00/cwt = Steel Orbis assessments. 

Opinions remain mixed as to whether rebar and wire rod prices a= re likely to continue lower, as supplies on the ground remain high, contact= s say. Also, little affect has been seen since the US Federal Reserve cut o= vernight lending rates by one-half point during the week of Sept. 16. The c= urrent rate is posted at 4.75-5.0 percent, and further rate cuts are expect= ed in November, shortly after the US presidential election, market insiders= said. 

On a g= lobal front, concern about the potential impact that a pending US dockworke= r strike could have on the movement of steel imports and mostly containeriz= ed shipments from US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports was noticeably less th= is week, with many expecting any affects to be minimal, and the strike to b= e of limited duration. 

"My contacts don't expect that the strike will even occur be= cause we have an approaching presidential election." said one East Coa= st rebar market insider. "However, if it does happen, imports (of long= steel) already are way off, so there will be a limited impact on US supply= on the ground." 

Market experts said each day that the strike ocours could cause a = backlog of 4-5 days for containerized cargo stuck outside ports, with the b= ill for lost goods and services estimated recently by analysts at JP Morgan= in excess of $5 billion per day. 

At last report, members of the International Longshor= eman's Association (ILA) and the US Maritime Alliance remain at odds over w= ages and issues regarding port automation. The parties have until Sept. 30 = to arrive at a compromise, otherwise a strike will commence on Oct. 1.

US October scrap seen mixed p= ending outcome of East Coast, Gulf Coast dockworker strike =

<= div>Friday, 27 September 2024 02:14:= 41 (GMT+3) San Diego 

US ferrous scrap pricing for the month of October is now called mix= ed, with those expecting an Oct. 1 dockworker strike to occur at US East Co= ast and Gulf Coast port facilities calling for a weak sideways settle versu= s September scrap values, while those that think the strike can be averted = call for October to settle sideways to strong sideways as export demand for= containerized steel scrap will likely remain reasonably strong, market ins= iders told SteelOrbis this week. 

The October outlook differs from the week of Sept. 18= , when insiders said October scrap was seen sideways to higher, unchanged f= rom a week earlier, as supply remained reduced at local scrap collection po= ints, and fewer US steel making plants were expected to be offline for main= tenance next month, resulting in improved scrap buying from milis, they sai= d. 
Recent rep= orts indicate about 17 mills were in outage during September, with that num= ber expected to drop to 14-15 millis during October, which should improve m= ills' demand for scrap, market insiders said. 

= "There's some trepidation starting to= emerge in the East Coast scrap markets about the strike," said one Ea= st Coast scrap market insider. "One of the things that's keeping the E= ast Coast scrap markets strong lately is exports. If that goes away with th= e strike. October scrap could be pulled down." 

= Industry reports estimate that about= 43 percent of all US imports, including containerized scrap, flow through = the US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports currently subject to interruption sh= ould a dockworkers strike occur after the Sept. 30 current six-year contrac= t expiration. Contract talks between the International Longshoreman's Assoc= iation (ILA) and the US Maritime Alliance (USMX) currently remain stalled, = and the Biden administration still has no plans on tap to institute Taft-Ha= rley to break up a strike should one occur on Oct. 1. 

On March 15, 2020. Biden was endor= sed by the ILA for president. While no new endorsement from the ILA could b= e found concerning the Democratic party this year, the executive board of t= he International Longshore and Wharehouse Union (ILWU), which operates on t= he US West Coast, recently has endorsed Kamala Harris for president. <= /font>

<= /span>
Regardless of wheth= er the strike occurs or not, insiders say "Scrap intake (at yards) rem= ains way off," with many expecting to see the mills emerge as larger b= uyers in October, because they will have fewer units off for maintenance ve= rsus September, "so they'll need to buy more scrap. 

=
Recent industry reports indicat= ed that about 1.8 million tons of steel making capacity will be offline fro= m September to December as a result of planned maintenance outages. Many of= these outages, market analysts told Steel Orbis, have been moved up 30-80 = days this year so that mills can sell earlier into historically higher pric= ed markets forecast by analysts to occur during the fourth quarter 2024 and= Q1 2025 

&quo= t;We're calling the October market sideways right now, however, there's a p= ossibility for strong sideways if the strike doesn't occur and exports out = of the US East Coast remain strong," another East Coast scrap insider = said. "If the strike does occur and export demand is cut, the market c= ould settle weak sideways to September, however, supply remains limited so = if the mills come out as strong buyers, sideways pricing could still happen= .
<= font style=3D"font-size: 12pt;">
Insiders said as demand for finished steel p= roducts such as appliances and automobiles continues to lag due to ongoing = US economic conditions, contacts suggest tier | and tier II manufacturing c= apacity has been reduced by between 20-30 percent, thus. reducing the amoun= t of available prime grade scrap normally generated by those sources. Sourc= es added that the Sept. 18 Federal Reserve's half-point interest rate cut, = while positive, will likely take time to trickle down into improved demand = level for finished steel and construction-related structural steel products= . 

Another SteelOrbis contact had a more optimistic opinion reg= arding the price of US scrap in the approaching 4th quarter. He said recent= moves by the Chinese to stimulate their flagging economy could improve dem= and for scrap and structural steel. 

<= div>"Scrap is unlikely to= go down as we approach winter," he said. "If the market feels bu= llish about the entire Chinese stimulus lasting more than a month, its unli= kely that there's much downsides on materials or finished goods short term.= " 

Recently, the People's Bank of China announced that t= he Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) would be reduced a half point in order t= o provide "much needed market stimulus." 

During the = September buy cycle, Midwest prime busheling scrap settled at $355-375/gt (= $361-381/mt) delivered to mill. September shredded scrap declined $20/gt ($= 22/mt) to $350-$360/gt ($356-366/mt) while September HMS#1 settled sideways= at $320/gt ($325/mt). P&S scrap settled sideways for September at $345-355= /gt ($351-381/mt) delivered to mill, insiders said. 

On the US = East Coast, September busheling scrap settled sideways to August at $350-38= 5/gt ($356-391/mt) delivered to mill while shredded settled sideways to Aug= ust at $370/gt ($376/mt). HMS#1 and P&S scrap settled sideways at $200-315/= gt ($295- 320/mt), and $320-340/gt ($325-345/mt) delivered to mill, respect= ively, market insiders told Steel Orbis.
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