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[192.64.236.230]) by mx.google.com with ESMTPS id ib6-20020a0562141c8600b00443d25bda82si2932536qvb.63.2022.04.23.04.48.56 for (version=TLS1_2 cipher=ECDHE-ECDSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256 bits=128/128); Sat, 23 Apr 2022 04:48:59 -0700 (PDT) Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of delivery_20220423074517.27470079.815962@bouncest.seekingalpha.com designates 192.64.236.230 as permitted sender) client-ip=192.64.236.230; Authentication-Results: mx.google.com; dkim=pass header.i=@seekingalpha.com header.s=sailthru header.b=HC3CEbHr; spf=pass (google.com: domain of delivery_20220423074517.27470079.815962@bouncest.seekingalpha.com designates 192.64.236.230 as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=delivery_20220423074517.27470079.815962@bouncest.seekingalpha.com; dmarc=pass (p=QUARANTINE sp=QUARANTINE dis=NONE) header.from=seekingalpha.com DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed; s=sailthru; d=seekingalpha.com; h=Date:From:Reply-To:To:Message-ID:Subject:MIME-Version:Content-Type: List-Unsubscribe; i=account@seekingalpha.com; bh=evYEaeKBiWtSZPcUXpLM5nJXVeHEwUyp+HKcWNqZVjY=; b=HC3CEbHrjRqyLtYjmeAb4+VnkkZYzALj08Uuajsk8t/3SyQhZ0SPyLe/3p/1LEBU/wC5KxYXvMm8 hYTC3KAObv1sUjh0kO6ArClWh2ya4nSA1xNam+Yyow99SMT7pb94Dr/pr6nVmT4U4g0teC/HsMib d63cgz34n8Aq8UdyJ78= Received: from mtast-04.sailthru.com (204.153.121.10) by pmta236-241.sailthru.com id hcfjqi2tobsp for ; Sat, 23 Apr 2022 07:45:27 -0400 (envelope-from ) Received: from nj1-badmanatee.flt (172.18.20.11) by mtast-04.sailthru.com id hcfjde1s6j0a for ; Sat, 23 Apr 2022 07:45:17 -0400 (envelope-from ) Date: Sat, 23 Apr 2022 07:45:17 -0400 (EDT) From: Seeking Alpha Reply-To: wsbfeedback@seekingalpha.com To: sterlingwhg@gmail.com Message-ID: <20220423074517.27470079.815962@sailthru.com> Subject: Wall Street Breakfast: What Moved Markets MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_4186241_777112039.1650714317872" Precedence: bulk X-Feedback-ID: 9033:27470079:campaign:sailthru X-TM-ID: 20220423074517.27470079.815962 X-Info: Message sent by sailthru.com customer Seeking Alpha X-Info: We do not permit unsolicited commercial email X-Info: Please report abuse by forwarding complete headers to X-Info: abuse@sailthru.com X-Mailer: sailthru.com X-JMailer: nj1-badmanatee.flt X-Unsubscribe-Web: https://email-st.seekingalpha.com/oc/60c1e5c4dba83e59149ff347gcs1r.hhlm/c2a70fa7 List-Unsubscribe: , X-rpcampaign: stnjl27470079 X-Spam-Status: No, score=2.5 X-Spam-Score: 25 X-Spam-Bar: ++ X-Spam-Flag: NO ------=_Part_4186241_777112039.1650714317872 Content-Type: text/html; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
- Check out original Seeking Alpha show The Weekend Bite! Friday was Earth = Day and this week=C2=A0we discuss investing in the Earth through REITs, sol= ar panels and long-duration energy storage. With Alex Snyder, Portfolio Man= ager at CenterSquare Capital Management, and Jonas Wallmander, CEO of Azeli= o.The Dow Jones average suffered its worst beating since October 2020 on Fr= iday, capping a fourth straight weekly decline, as mostly positive earnings= reports failed to ease worries about rising inflation or the near-certaint= y that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least a half poi= nt at its meeting next month. Friday's nearly 1,000 point drop in the Dow f= ollowed a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday that signaled su= pport for a 50-basis point rate hike is very much on the table since taming= inflation is "absolutely essential." Rates jumped on Powell's remarks befo= re the benchmark 10-year yield eased slightly on Friday to about 2.9%. Next= week will see earnings reports from the four biggest U.S. companies by mar= ket cap: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Google parent Alphabet. In the week j= ust concluded, the Dow finished down 1.9% in its ninth losing week of the l= ast 11, while the S&P 500 fell 2.8% and the Nasdaq sank 3.8%.
3D""
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Top News
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Check out original Seeking Alp= ha show The Weekend Bite! Friday was Earth Day and this week=C2= =A0we discuss investing in t= he Earth through REITs, solar panels and long-duration energy storage. With= Alex Snyder, Portfolio Manager at CenterSquare Capital Management, and Jon= as Wallmander, CEO of Azelio.


The= Dow Jones average suffered its worst beating since October 2020 on Friday,= capping a fourth straight weekly decline, as mostly positive earnings repo= rts failed to ease worries about rising inflation or the near-certainty tha= t the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least a half point at= its meeting next month. Friday's nearly 1,000 point drop in the Dow follow= ed a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday that signaled support= for a 50-basis point rate hike is very much on the table since taming infl= ation is "absolutely essential." Rates jumped on Powell's remarks before th= e benchmark 10-year yield eased slightly on Friday to about 2.9%. Next week will see earnings r= eports from the four biggest U.S. companies by market cap: Apple, Microsoft= , Amazon and Google parent Alphabet. In the week just concluded, the Dow fi= nished down 1.9% in its ninth losing week of the last 11, while the S&P= 500 fell 2.8% and the Nasdaq sank 3.8%.
     
Economy
75 basis points

Seventy-five basis points is the new 50 basis points. A relentlessly haw= kish Federal Reserve is ramping up market expectations for big interest rat= e hikes that would have been considered unthinkable (and market crippling) = just two months ago.

Nomura says that the FOMC will hike the fed= funds rate by 75 basis points in June and July after a 50-basis point rise= in May. That would bring the rate up to 2.25%, a phenomenal amount of tigh= tening given that the Fed was still easing by buying assets as recently as = March.

The shift in market expectations for even more tightening= came after Fed Chairman Jerom= e Powell said at an IMF debate Thursday that a 50-basis-point hike in M= arch was "on the table." Perhaps even more pertinent to the markets, he sai= d there was some merit in front-loading tightening with the current upside = risks to inflation and a historically tight labor market.

Trader= s quickly priced in more aggressive hiking as Powell spoke, with CME FedWat= ch now pricing in an 85% chance the benchmark rate will rise to a range of = 1.5%-1.75% after the June meeting. That would mean a 75-basis point hike in= June if May gets the expected half-point boost.

Chatter of a hi= ke of as much as 75 basis points started last week when St. Louis Fed Presi= dent James Bullard said that he wouldn't rule one out. Before Powell spoke = yesterday, San Francisco President Mary Daly added some fuel to the fire, s= aying she would be talking to colleagues about whether a hike of 25, 50 or = 75 basis points was needed.

In fed funds futures, the market is = now pricing in about 270 basis points of tightening for 2022, topping the 2= 50 seen in 1994, with expectations now for the rate to hit 3% by March 2023= , according to Deutsche Bank.

Deutsche Bank's chief economist sa= id yesterday that the Fed could hike rates to as high as 5% by the time it'= s done tightening, a level not seen since 2006.

Quotes: =E2=80=9COur U.S. team = has changed their Fed call,=E2=80=9D Rob Subbaraman, Nomura head of global = markets research, wrote in an email seen by Bloomberg. =E2=80=9CThey now ex= pect the FOMC to be even more front-loaded with rate hikes, in order to get= the funds rate back to neutral as expeditiously as possible to avoid a wag= e-price spiral."

=E2=80=9CWe recognize Fedspeak has not outright= endorsed a 75 basis point hike yet, but in this high inflation regime we b= elieve the nature of Fed forward guidance has changed - it has become more = data dependent and nimble,=E2=80=9D he said.

"We are in a new en= vironment, dancing to a new tune, and the incremental mean reversing way of= thinking about inflation and rates is likely to be misleading," Deutsche B= ank chief economist David Folkerts-Landau said. "Inflation is seeping into = expectations, and labor markets are historically tight."

What this means for stocks and bond= s: The selloff in Treasury bonds accelerated as expectations for eve= n more hawkish policy rose.

The 10-year Treasury yield (TBT)=C2=A0(SPY)=C2=A0fell 1.5%, while = the Nasdaq 100 (NDX)=C2=A0(QQQ)=C2= =A0lost 2%.

Worries will increase in the equities market if the = Fed slams on the brakes as Nomura predicts.

Investors "are in a = new investing world," eToro strategist Ben Laidler said. "The sharp and nev= er-ending repricing of Fed interest expectations and high-for-longer inflat= ion has driven bond volatility twice that of equities, and a tightening US = financial conditions index."

"This drives lower valuation and a = Growth to Value rotation," he added. "Equities are being stress-tested by s= urging bond yields. But there is a limit to how high yields will go. The Fe= d has more yield control now with its huge balance sheet runoff, whilst hig= h debt levels, and wide yield gap with global markets are constraints."

     
Featured
50 growth stocks that won=E2=80=99t wait for the mark= et
Earnings season got off to a rocky start this qu= arter. And with big tech earnings coming up, it seems likely that further s= urprises are on the cards.

So the question is: Should you buy beaten-down stocks on the dip?

The fact is that not all growth stocks are= created equal. In previous years the majority of growth stocks did well - = but in the current climate it=E2=80=99s different. Choose the wrong stock a= nd you can lose a lot of money. Choose the right stock and the sky=E2=80=99= s the limit.

That's where Cestrian Capital Research comes in. Th= is SEC-regulated firm combines pro-grade fundamental analysis with multiple= methods of technical analysis to find the most compelling stocks. It also = provides buy/sell timing = insights and potential stop-loss and target exit levels.
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Earnings
Streaming Sea Change

Netflix (NFLX)= =C2=A0lost more than a third of its value this week, shedding more than $50= B in market capitalization. The day after earnings, shares tumbled 35%. The= last time the stock fell like that was nearly 18 years ago, on Oct. 15, 20= 04. Netflix stock slipped nearly 41% that day, all the way to a split-adjus= ted $1.47 from $2.49 the session before. It=E2=80=99s a staggering loss for= a company that is an original FAANG stock, considered a bedrock of growth = stocks.

Netflix lost a net 200,000 subscribers for the quarter a= nd forecast that it would shed 2M more in the current quarter. That's launc= hed talk of whether the company is saturating its total addressable market.= On the earnings call the company seemed ready to throw a kitchen sink at t= he problem (including monetizing free-riding viewers and creating an ad-sup= ported tier).

Quote: The results were a "sea change quarter" that "essentially = conceded to every key point of the bear thesis," J.P. Morgan analyst Doug A= nmuth said.

"The bigger factor is management=E2=80=99s acknowled= gment of relatively high household penetration when including account shari= ng, increased competition, and COVID pull-forward giving way to fundamental= weakness," Anmuth wrote in a note to clients. "We're moving to the sidelin= es as we look for greater confidence in restoring subscriber growth & r= eaccelerating revenue, while also increasing development velocity in accoun= t sharing and advertising,"

Go deeper into the changing landscape: The stumble in the= long-time dominant force in streaming may open the door for competitors to= take the lead. But Wall Street is cautious, with other major streaming sto= cks all tumbling yesterday.

Walt Disney (DIS), HBO Max parent Warner Bros.= Discovery (WBD<= /a>)=C2=A0and Paramount (PARA)=C2=A0all fell more than 5% yesterday. There was also = downward pressure for some smaller streamers often named in merger and acqu= isition chatter, with Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF.A), AMC Networks (= AMCX)=C2=A0and fuboTV= (FUBO)=C2=A0sliding.=

There have been three chapters in the Netflix saga, according t= o Rameez Tase, co-founder of Antenna Data, which tracks the subscription ec= onomy. In Chapter 1 Netflix disrupted TV, in Chapter 2 TV fought back and c= lawed back market share and in Chapter 3 TV eats its own profits because hu= rting Netflix isn=E2=80=99t a business model, Tase tweeted.

=E2= =80=9CYes, they weakened Netflix =E2=80=A6 but at what cost?=E2=80=9D he sa= id. =E2=80=9CEach of Netflix's competitors now faces 2 existential challeng= es: retention and monetization. Will they be able to prevent churn? Will th= ey be able to charge more?=E2=80=9D

=E2=80=9CThe implications? G= et ready to see an all-out war for retention and monetization, prices are g= oing up, up, up, (but) will consumers bear it? Wall Street shi= fts from Subscribers to Customer Lifetime Value (and) Growth M= arketers are the new saviors of TV.=E2=80=9D

     
M&A
Twitter tender
Elon Musk stoked =E2=80=9C420=E2=80=9D excitement among his supporters on A= pril 20 with another cryptic tweet that indicated he may make a tender offe= r for Twitter (TWTR).

Musk tweeted "_______ is the Night."

On Thursday, = Musk said he will explore a potential tender offer for Twitter, having secu= red $46.5B committed financing for the deal. Musk's filing says entities re= lated to him have received commitment letters committing to about $46.5B to= finance the offer.

Twitter has adopted a poison pill to thwart = Musk's hostile bid of $43B for the company.
Musk is said to be in talk= s with private-equity firm Thoma Bravo about partnering on a potential Twit= ter takeover bid.

Thoma Bravo executives are said to be mixed on= a potential partnership due to Musk's behavior and controversial politics,= according to a New Yo= rk Post report.

Also on 4/20, Tesla (TSLA)=C2=A0powered through supply chain i= ssues and late-quarter disruption in Shanghai to comfortably top estimates = with its Q1 earnings report.

The company generated $3.3B in GAAP= net income during the quarter and $3.7B in non-GAAP net income. The automa= ker reports it produced 305,407 vehicles in Q1 (+69% Y/Y) and delivered 310= ,048 vehicles (+68%).

Operating margin shot up to 19.2% of sales= to improve from last quarter's mark of 14.7%. Automotive gross margin excl= uding regulatory credits was 30.0% vs. 27.7% consensus and 29.2% last quart= er.
     
Economy
Housing inflection point
Demand for homes is strong, with many properties for sale going for well ab= ove asking price. But with a hawkish Fed and the Treasury yields jumping, t= he 30-year fixed-rate mortgage just topped 5% for the first time in a decad= e.

"Rising rates are starting to show up in housing data," Schwa= b's Kathy Jones tweeted. That could further dent demand, although "housing = starts have historically been unresponsive to changes in mortgage rates in = a supply-constrained environment, likely because homebuilders are able to c= ontinue building with little fear that homes will sit vacant after completi= on,=E2=80=9D Goldman Sachs said.

Yesterday, the NAHB Housing Mar= ket Index fell to a seven-month low of 77 for April. =E2=80=9CThe housing m= arket faces an inflection point as an unexpectedly quick rise in interest r= ates, rising home prices and escalating material costs have significantly d= ecreased housing affordability conditions, particularly in the crucial entr= y-level market,=E2=80=9D NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said.

Redfin reported last week that home sales fell 4% in March as buying costs= shot up. =E2=80=9CWe expect the combination of surging mortgage rates and = record-high home prices to cause more homebuyers to drop out of the market,= " Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said. "Unfortunately, homeowners= are turning their back on the market too. Instead of being motivated to li= st before prices weaken, potential home sellers may be choosing to wait-out= the impending market cooldown.=E2=80=9D

Stock impact: The "inexorable rise in back e= nd rates is having a meaningful impact on interest rate sensitive areas of = the economy and market, like housing," Morgan Stanley equity strategist Mik= e Wilson said.

The SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB)=C2=A0is down nearly 30% year = to date and off 15% from its near-term peak in mid-March. The sector is als= o vulnerable to the risk of the Fed orchestrating a hard landing with its r= ate hike, possibly leading to a recession. But Citi says that a replay of 2= 008 isn't in the cards.

"We believe the housing risk is much les= s severe than occurred during the Great Financial Crisis since credit quali= ty is healthy, home equity levels are high, and there is higher structural = demand for the home than pre-pandemic," analyst Steve Zaccone wrote in a no= te.
     
Economy
Recession risks
The Goldman Sachs economics team says that there is now a 35% chance of a U= .S recession over the next two years, with the labor market a particular pr= oblem for the Federal Reserve. The large gap between jobs and workers, whic= h keeps wage growth elevated, has historically only declined during periods= of economic contraction, chief economist Jan Hatzius and team wrote in a n= ote out on Sunday. Predictions for a recession have been growing as the Fed= tries to negotiate a soft landing for the economy at a time when inflation= is at a level not seen in four decades.

Deutsche Bank was the f= irst big Wall Street bank to forecast a recession, saying in the first week= of April a recession in late 2023 is now their base case.

Quotes: =E2=80=9CTak= en at face value, these historical patterns suggest the Fed faces a hard pa= th to a soft landing,=E2=80=9D Hatzius said, according to Bloomberg. But ot= her strategists are more cautious.

Wells Fargo stock strategist = Chris Harvey said in a note last week that despite "daily calls for a reces= sion from anyone with a megaphone, we do not expect one of the next 12 mont= hs. Rather, stagflation (high inflation/slower growth) likely will prevail.= "

Credit Suisse says it is not underweight equities because: "i)= equities are fair value (not overvalued) with equities being an inflation = hedge compared to bonds; ii) monetary conditions are very loose; iii) we on= ly tend to get recessions 9 months after 3-month money inverts relative to = 10-year."

Go deep= er on yields: The Fed's hawkish signaling, with 50-basis-point rate = hikes expected over the next few meetings has sent Treasury yields sharply = higher. An inversion in the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield curve was poi= nted to as a signal of an upcoming recession. But the inversion was short-l= ived and that curve has started steepening again.

"Despite the e= mbarrassing panic about the wrong yield curve measures flattening/inverting= earlier this year, the curves that actually forecast recessions remain ste= ep and have been steepening," MKM's Michael Darda said in a note.

"The long Treasury rate (or 10-year Treasury yield) minus the 3-month Tre= asury bill yield has inverted before every recession since the mid-1950s." = That spread is now around 200 basis points. Still, traders see little respi= te from the bond selloff in the near term. =E2=80=9CWe=E2=80=99re coming ou= t of one of the worst quarters in history ... and the big bear market in bo= nds continues,=E2=80=9D Thanos Bardas, global co-head of investment grade a= t Neuberger Berman, told The Wall Street Journal.
     
U.S. Indices
Dow -1.9% to 33,811. S&P 500 -2.8% to 4,272. Nasdaq -3.8% to 12,839. Russell = 2000 -3.2% to 1,941. C= BOE Volatility Index +24.3%= to 28.21.

S&P 500 Sectors
Con= sumer Staples +2.1%.= Utilities +0.9%. Fi= nancials +2.6%. Tele= com -2.2%. Healthcare = +1.1%. Industrials <= span class=3D"green" style=3D"color: #008000;">+2.%. Information Tec= hnology +2.%. Materi= als +1.7%. Energy +1.%. Consumer Discret= ionary +1.9%.
=
World Indices
London -1.2% to 7,522. France -0.1% to 6,581. Germany -0.2% to 14,142. Japan +0.% to 27,105. China= -3.9% to 3,087. Hong = Kong -4.1% to 20,639. = India -2.% to 57,197. =

Commodities and Bonds
Crude Oil WTI -5.8% to $100.75/bbl. Gold = -2.2% to $1,932.5/oz. = Natural Gas -11.4% to 6.465. Ten-Year Tr= easury Yield +2.7% t= o 2.91.

Forex and Cryptos
EUR/USD -0.11%. USD/JPY +1.76%. GBP/USD -1.68%. Bitcoin -2.4%. Litecoin -4.6%. Ethereum -2.6%. XRP -8.4%.

Top S&P 500 Gainers
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) +14%= . Kimberly-Clark (KMB) +10%. Internation= al Business Machines (IBM) +9%= . Twitter (TWTR) +9%. M&T Bank (MTB) +8%.

Top S&P 500 Losers=
Netflix (NFLX) -37%. Enphase Energy (ENPH) -19%. HCA Healthcare (HCA) -19%. Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods (WBD) -= 17%. DENTSPLY SIRONA (= XRAY) -17%.
=
Where will the markets be headed next week? Current trends and ide= as? Add your thoughts to the comments section.
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