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75 basis points - Happy Earth Day! Check out original Seeking Alpha show Th= e Weekend Bite! This week we discuss investing in the Earth through REITs, = solar panels and long-duration energy storage. With Alex Snyder, Portfolio = Manager at CenterSquare Capital Management, and Jonas Wallmander, CEO of Az= elio.Seventy-five basis points is the new 50 basis points. A relentlessly h= awkish Federal Reserve is ramping up market expectations for big interest r= ate hikes that would have been considered unthinkable (and market crippling= ) just two months ago.Nomura says today that the FOMC will hike the fed fun= ds rate by 75 basis points in June and July after a 50-basis point rise in = May. That would bring the rate up to 2.25%, a phenomenal amount of tighteni= ng given that the Fed was still easing by buying assets as recently as Marc= h.The shift in market expectations for even more tightening came after Fed = Chairman Jerome Powell said at an IMF debate Thursday that a 50-basis-point= hike in March was "on the table." Perhaps even more pertinent to the marke= ts, he said there was some merit in front-loading tightening with the curre= nt upside risks to inflation and a historically tight labor market.Traders = quickly priced in more aggressive hiking as Powell spoke, with CME FedWatch= now pricing in an 85% chance the benchmark rate will rise to a range of 1.= 5%-1.75% after the June meeting. That would mean a 75-basis point hike in J= une if May gets the expected half-point boost.Chatter of a hike of as much = as 75 basis points started last week when St. Louis Fed President James Bul= lard said that he wouldn't rule one out. Before Powell spoke yesterday, San= Francisco President Mary Daly added some fuel to the fire, saying she woul= d be talking to colleagues about whether a hike of 25, 50 or 75 basis point= s was needed.In fed funds futures, the market is now pricing in about 270 b= asis points of tightening for 2022, topping the 250 seen in 1994, with expe= ctations now for the rate to hit 3% by March 2023, according to Deutsche Ba= nk.Deutsche Bank's chief economist said yesterday that the Fed could hike r= ates to as high as 5% by the time it's done tightening, a level not seen si= nce 2006.=E2=80=9COur U.S. team has changed their Fed call,=E2=80=9D Rob Su= bbaraman, Nomura head of global markets research, wrote in an email seen by= Bloomberg. =E2=80=9CThey now expect the FOMC to be even more front-loaded = with rate hikes, in order to get the funds rate back to neutral as expediti= ously as possible to avoid a wage-price spiral.=E2=80=9D=E2=80=9CWe recogni= ze Fedspeak has not outright endorsed a 75 basis point hike yet, but in thi= s high inflation regime we believe the nature of Fed forward guidance has c= hanged - it has become more data dependent and nimble,=E2=80=9D he said."We= are in a new environment, dancing to a new tune, and the incremental mean = reversing way of thinking about inflation and rates is likely to be mislead= ing," Deutsche Bank chief economist David Folkerts-Landau said. "Inflation = is seeping into expectations, and labor markets are historically tight."Wha= t this means for stocks and bonds: The selloff in Treasury bonds accelerate= d as expectations for even more hawkish policy rose.The 10-year Treasury yi= eld (TBT) (TLT) hit 2.95% at the high of the day Thursday and is back up at= that level this morning. The 2s10s curve flattened and the 2-year yield (S= HY) is up 7 basis points to 2.76% in early trading today.Stocks started Thu= rsday with a rally, but the big rise in rates (especially real rates) rever= sed the trend and the S&P (SP500) (SPY) fell 1.5%, while the Nasdaq 100= (NDX) (QQQ) lost 2%.Worries will increase in the equities market if the Fe= d slams on the brakes as Nomura predicts.Investors "are in a new investing = world," eToro strategist Ben Laidler said. "The sharp and never-ending repr= icing of Fed interest expectations and high-for-longer inflation has driven= bond volatility twice that of equities, and a tightening US financial cond= itions index.""This drives lower valuation and a Growth to Value rotation,"= he added. "Equities are being stress-tested by surging bond yields. But th= ere is a limit to how high yields will go. The Fed has more yield control n= ow with its huge balance sheet runoff, whilst high debt levels, and wide yi= eld gap with global markets are constraints." (6 comments)
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Top News
75 basis points
Shutterstock
H= appy Earth Day! Check out original Seeking Alpha show The Weekend Bite! This week we discuss investing in the Earth through REITs, = solar panels and long-duration energy storage. With Alex Snyder, Portfolio = Manager at CenterSquare Capital Management, and Jonas Wallmander, CEO of Az= elio.

Seventy-five basis points is the new 50 basis point= s. A relentlessly hawkish Federal Reserve is ramping up market expectations= for big interest rate hikes that would have been considered unthinkable (a= nd market crippling) just two months ago.

Nomura says today that= the FOMC will hike the fed funds rate by 75 basis points in June and July = after a 50-basis point rise in May. That would bring the rate up to 2.25%, = a phenomenal amount of tightening given that the Fed was still easing by bu= ying assets as recently as March.

The shift in market expectatio= ns for even more tightening came after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at an IMF debate Thursday that= a 50-basis-point hike in March was "on the table." Perhaps even more perti= nent to the markets, he said there was some merit in front-loading tighteni= ng with the current upside risks to inflation and a historically tight labo= r market.

Traders quickly priced in more aggressive hiking as Po= well spoke, with CME FedWatch now pricing in an 85% chance the benchmark ra= te will rise to a range of 1.5%-1.75% after the June meeting. That would me= an a 75-basis point hike in June if May gets the expected half-point boost.=

Chatter of a hike of as much as 75 basis points started last we= ek when St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that he wouldn't rule on= e out. Before Powell spoke yesterday, San Francisco President Mary Daly add= ed some fuel to the fire, saying she would be talking to colleagues about w= hether a hike of 25, 50 or 75 basis points was needed.

In fed fu= nds futures, the market is now pricing in about 270 basis points of tighten= ing for 2022, topping the 250 seen in 1994, with expectations now for the r= ate to hit 3% by March 2023, according to Deutsche Bank.

Deutsch= e Bank's chief economist said yesterday that the Fed could hike rates to as= high as 5% by the time it's done tightening, a level not seen since 2006.<= br />
=E2=80=9COur U.S. team has changed their Fed call,=E2=80=9D Rob = Subbaraman, Nomura head of global markets research, wrote in an email seen = by Bloomberg. =E2=80=9CThey now expect the FOMC to be even more front-loade= d with rate hikes, in order to get the funds rate back to neutral as expedi= tiously as possible to avoid a wage-price spiral.=E2=80=9D

=E2= =80=9CWe recognize Fedspeak has not outright endorsed a 75 basis point hike= yet, but in this high inflation regime we believe the nature of Fed forwar= d guidance has changed - it has become more data dependent and nimble,=E2= =80=9D he said.

"We are in a new environment, dancing to a new t= une, and the incremental mean reversing way of thinking about inflation and= rates is likely to be misleading," Deutsche Bank chief economist David Fol= kerts-Landau said. "Inflation is seeping into expectations, and labor marke= ts are historically tight."

What this means for stocks a= nd bonds: The selloff in Treasury bonds accelerated as expectation= s for even more hawkish policy rose.

The 10-year Treasury yield = (TBT= ) (TLT) hit = 2.95% at the high of the day Thursday and is back up at that level this mor= ning. The 2s10s curve flattened and the 2-year yield (SHY) is up 7 basis points to 2.= 76% in early trading today.

Stocks started Thursday with a rally= , but the big rise in rates (especially real rates) reversed the trend and = the S&P (SP500) (SPY) fell 1.5%, while the Nasd= aq 100 (NDX) (QQQ) lost 2%.

Worries will increase = in the equities market if the Fed slams on the brakes as Nomura predicts.
Investors "are in a new investing world," eToro strategist Ben La= idler said. "The sharp and never-ending repricing of Fed interest expectati= ons and high-for-longer inflation has driven bond volatility twice that of = equities, and a tightening US financial conditions index."

"This= drives lower valuation and a Growth to Value rotation," he added. "Equitie= s are being stress-tested by surging bond yields. But there is a limit to h= ow high yields will go. The Fed has more yield control now with its huge ba= lance sheet runoff, whilst high debt levels, and wide yield gap with global= markets are constraints." (6 comments)
     
Consumer
Disney vs. Florida
Florida's Republican-led House gave its approval to a bill that would put a= n end to Walt Disney's (DIS= ) special tax district, which grants the theme-park owner heavy autonom= y over its land.

That 70-38 vote follows Wednesday's Florida Sen= ate passage by a vote of 23-16 - quick action after Florida Gov. Ron DeSant= is said Tuesday that he was adding the effort to the legislature's special = session. The measure now heads to DeSantis for signature. Disney shares fel= l to a new 52-week low in response, dropping below $122. (786 comments)
     
Financials
GameStop-shorting fund is done?
Melvin Capital, the hedge fund that was crushed by the GameStop (GME) short squeeze last year, is said to b= e considering a plan to return investors their capital, while giving them t= he ability to invest in a new fund.

Under the plan being discuss= ed by Melvin Capital founder Gabe Plotkin, the hedge fund would shut at the= end of June, according to a CNBC report. The fund fell 21% at the end of t= he first quarter. Melvin would start a new fund on July 1 with the money hi= s investors decide to reinvest. (60 comments)
     
Featured
Ho= w can you navigate a volatile earnings season?
Earnings got off to a rocky st= art this quarter - to put it mildly. And with big tech earnings coming up, = it seems likely that further surprises are on the cards.

So how c= an you protect your portfolio during an unusually volatile earnings season?=

With Seeking Alpha=E2=80=99s stock warnings, real time alerts on ratings changes, an= d agile expert analysis, you'll have the tools you need to make smar= t decisions this earnings season.

Our e= xclusive Quant Ratings - which are beating the market 4-to-1 - a= nalyze over 100 metrics daily, and include EPS revisions as one of the key factor grades.
=
That means if you follow our =E2=80=98Strong Buy=E2=80=99 stock picks= you will automatically be exposed to stocks with a higher chance of upward= earnings revisions - a critical indicator of future growth potential.

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M&A
Bravo Musk?
Elon Musk is said to be in talks with private-equity firm Thoma Bravo about= partnering on a potential Twitter (= TWTR) takeover bid. Twitter is up 1% in premarket trading.

T= homa Bravo executives are said to be mixed on a potential partnership due t= o Musk's behavior and controversial politics, according to a New York Po= st report.

The report comes after Musk earlier Thursday said= he will explore a potential tender offer for Twitter, having secured $46.5= B committed financing for the deal. Musk's filing says entities related to = him have received commitment letters committing to about $46.5B. (25 comments)
     
Earnings
Snap= challenges
The word of the day for Snap (SNAP) = is "challenging": CEO Evan Spiegel made his description of the operating en= vironment as challenging front and center in his remarks on the earnings ca= ll, and Chief Financial Officer Derek Andersen used the word to describe wh= y the company expects a 30% run rate in business growth quarter-to-date to = likely fade as the quarter rolls on.

He also highlighted the imp= act of the war in Ukraine, saying the company could expect additional campa= ign pauses or advertiser budget reductions. A large number of advertisers p= aused their ad campaigns in the days following Russia's invasion of Ukraine= in late February - and while the majority of advertisers resumed their cam= paigns, many remained concerned about inflation and continuing geopolitical= risk, he said. (7 comments)
     
Today's Market
In Asia, Japan -1.63%. Hong Kong -0.21%. China +0.23%. India -0.98%.
In Europe, at midday, London = -0.59%. Paris -1.18%. Frankfurt -1.29%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.18%. S&P -0.09%. Cru= de -1.94% to $101.78. Gold -0.20%= to $1944.26. Bitcoin -3.57%<= /span>=C2=A0to $40,453.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +3.8 bps= to 2.955%.
Today's Economic Calendar
9:45 = PMI Compo= site Flash
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count

Companies reporting earnings today =C2=BB
What else is happening...
Carl Icahn says large asset mana= gers should back him in McDonald's (MCD) fight.

Heavily shorted name Redbox (RDBX) gains= 29% on heavy volume.

Australia's financial regulator unveils cryptocurrency policy roadmap.
=
Boston Beer Company (SAM) serves up skunked earnings.

Solar stocks = slide after NextEra (NEE) = cites tariff probe for project delay= s.

U.S. oil services firms push for= revamped Venezuela license.
Seeking Alpha=E2=80=99s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast
Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you n= eed to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is= a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working = day.
 
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