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Elon Musk=E2=80=99s favorite day - Elon Musk has made no secret of his affi= nity for =E2=80=9C420=E2=80=9D references and today is April 20, or 4/20, w= ith Tesla (TSLA) set to report earnings after the bell. The numbers are a c= annabis culture reference to the supposed best time to get high and Musk ha= d Wall Street Googling the term again recently as he bid $54.20 per share f= or Twitter.Tesla shares were up about 2% in the first quarter, but down mor= e than 14% year to date. And the stock could see a big earnings-day move ba= sed on positioning data compiled by Goldman Sachs. Tesla stock has a 55.6% = probability of an up move today, with an implied move of 12.6%, according t= o John Marshall, Goldman=E2=80=99s head of derivatives strategy.What to wat= ch: The dominant focus is expected to be on what the outlook is for Shangha= i production in Q2 amid the lockdowns. The electric vehicle leader just sta= rted production back up at its Shanghai factory after an extended COVID-19 = lockdown in the region kept the plant effectively closed since March 28. Re= ports have indicated employees will be living onsite at the Gigafactory, wh= ere they will get catered meals, a small daily stipend, access to showers, = and entertainment options.That leads to the main question around the TSLA e= arnings report being clarity on the current and expected pace of China prod= uction, as well as the overall view on the impact of zero-tolerance COVID p= olicies in China. Any surprises could reset expectations across Wall Street= . China has been the biggest topic with analyst comments into the report.Wh= at the analysts say: Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives (Buy rating): "We = estimate that roughly 50k units are now reduced for the June quarter for st= arters given the last three weeks of shutdown and depending on how aggressi= vely Tesla can ramp back production could be impacted further over the next= month. Musk & Co. are in a tough spot, as there are so many variables = around 2Q China production that will certainly weigh on guidance for the re= st of the year and thus has been a clear overhang on the stock over the pas= t month."Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally (In Line rating): Keep "in mind= that every week of closure (3+ so far), is 16-18k units of production lost= , $80- $100MM of Rev, $24-$35MM of lost EBIT and 18-23c of lost EPS. Potent= ial new catalysts now include hard data on extent of China production setba= cks or restart (a major exporter for TSLA to EU) as well as any legislation= loosely related to the former =E2=80=98Build Back Better=E2=80=99 US recon= ciliation bill which increases manufacturer caps for federal tax credits on= consumer." Morgan Stanley thinks investors might start looking at the stoc= k as a play on renewable energy onshore infrastructure. "We believe recent = geopolitical events are working to accelerate the market for stationary sto= rage at the grid/industrial/household level," noted analyst Adam Jonas. (1 = comment)
3D""
<= /a> Read in Browser
 
Top News
Elon Musk=E2=80=99s fa= vorite day
Shutterstock
Elon Musk has made no secret of his affinity for =E2=80=9C420=E2=80=9D refe= rences and today is April 20, or 4/20, with Tesla (TSLA) set to report earnings after the bell.

The n= umbers are a cannabis culture reference to the supposed best time to get hi= gh and Musk had Wall Street Googling the term again recently as he bid $54.= 20 per share for Twitter.

Tesla shares were up about 2% in the first= quarter, but down more than 14% year to date. And the stock could see a bi= g earnings-day move based on positioning data compiled by Goldman Sachs. Te= sla stock has a 55.6% probability of an up move today, with an implied move= of 12.6%, according to John Marshall, Goldman=E2=80=99s head of derivative= s strategy.

What to watch: The dominant focus is ex= pected to be on what the outlook is for Shanghai production in Q2 amid the = lockdowns. The electric vehicle leader just started production back up at i= ts Shanghai factory after an extended COVID-19 lockdown in the region kept = the plant effectively closed since March 28. Reports have indicated employe= es will be living onsite at the Gigafactory, where they will get catered me= als, a small daily stipend, access to showers, and entertainment options.
That leads to the main question around the TSLA earnings report being= clarity on the current and expected pace of China production, as well as t= he overall view on the impact of zero-tolerance COVID policies in China. An= y surprises could reset expectations across Wall Street. China has been the= biggest topic with analyst comments into the report.

What t= he analysts say: Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives (Buy rating):= "We estimate that roughly 50k units are now reduced for the June quarter f= or starters given the last three weeks of shutdown and depending on how agg= ressively Tesla can ramp back production could be impacted further over the= next month. Musk & Co. are in a tough spot, as there are so many varia= bles around 2Q China production that will certainly weigh on guidance for t= he rest of the year and thus has been a clear overhang on the stock over th= e past month."

Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally (In Line rating): = Keep "in mind that every week of closure (3+ so far), is 16-18k units of pr= oduction lost, $80- $100MM of Rev, $24-$35MM of lost EBIT and 18-23c of los= t EPS. Potential new catalysts now include hard data on extent of China pro= duction setbacks or restart (a major exporter for TSLA to EU) as well as an= y legislation loosely related to the former =E2=80=98Build Back Better=E2= =80=99 US reconciliation bill which increases manufacturer caps for federal= tax credits on consumer."

Morgan Stanley thinks investors might st= art looking at the stock as a play on renewable energy onshore infrastructu= re. "We believe recent geopolitical events are working to accelerate the ma= rket for stationary storage at the grid/industrial/household level," noted = analyst Adam Jonas. (1 comment)
     
Tech
Twitter tender?
Musk is also stoking =E2=80=9C420=E2=80=9D excitement among his supporters = with another cryptic tweet that could indicate he will make a tender offer = for Twitter.

Musk tweeted "_______ is the Night." The fill-= in-the-blank could be a reference to "Tender Is the Night," the 1934 novel = by F. Scott Fitzgerald. Musk already created speculation that he may make a= tender offer directly to TWTR investors when he tweeted out "Love me Tende= r."

Twitter has adopted a poison pill to thwart Musk's hostile bid o= f $43B for the company. There is also speculation that Musk's tweet could b= e "Tonight is the Night" since there are seven character spaces in the blan= k, although he sent the tweet out at 11:32 p.m. ET on Tuesday. (12 comments)
     
Energy
Nuclear= plant bailout
The Biden administration is launching a $6B program to rescue nuclear power= plants at risk of closing, opening a certification and bidding process for= a civil nuclear credit program to aid financially distressed owners or ope= rators of nuclear power reactors.

The U.S. Department of Energy said= it will take applications for the first round of funding in its program un= til May 19, prioritizing reactors that have already announced plans to clos= e. (63 comments)
     
Featured
What the Netflix horror show means for growth stocks<= /a>
The numbers are out - and it=E2=80=99s not pretty. Netflix pl= unged 26% after-hours on Tuesday on its first subscriber loss in over a dec= ade, pulling streaming stocks like Roku (-6%) and Disney (-4%) down as well= .

So shoul= d you buy Netflix - or other beaten-down stocks - on the dip?

The fact is that not all growth stocks are created equal. In p= revious years the majority of growth stocks did well - but in the current c= limate it=E2=80=99s different. Choose the wrong stock and you can lose a lo= t of money. Choose the right stock and the sky=E2=80=99s the limit.
That's where Cestrian Ca= pital Research comes in. This SEC-regulated firm combines pro-grade = fundamental analysis with multiple methods of technical analysis to find th= e most compelling stocks. It also provides buy/sell timing insights and potential stop-lo= ss and target exit levels.

Top pick SailPoint Technologies has j= ust surged 44% in about seve= n weeks.

= Get pro-grade insights into 50 quality growth stocks - before they rebound.=

Find top = growth picks =C2=BB
Earnings
Netflix wi= th ads
Netflix (NFLX) stock is losing n= early a quarter of its value in premarket trading after it lost 200,000 sub= scribers on a net basis, well short of its scaled-back guidance for additio= ns of 2.5 million subscribers. And the earnings call set the stage for a lo= wer-cost, ad-supported service.

Netflix's first subscriber loss in a= decade left the company down to 221.64 million global subscribers compared= to 221.84 million at the end of 2021. And the streaming service is also fo= recasting a drop of 2 million net subscribers for the second quarter of thi= s year.

Netflix acknowledged on the call that growth wasn't what it = wanted and pegged the decline to four "inter-related" factors: Pace of grow= th into broadband homes is partly dependent on factors out of its control; = competition has ramped up heavily in the past three years; macro factors (e= conomy, inflation, Russia's invasion of Ukraine); and notably, unpaid passw= ord sharing - a concern that execs used to blow off as not especially relev= ant.

As far as increasing the "pipe spread" with advertising on lowe= r-priced plans, CEO Reed Hastings noted people know he's been against it. "= I'm a big fan of the simplicity of subscription. But as much as I'm a fan o= f that, I'm a bigger fan of consumer choice, and allowing consumers who wou= ld like to have a lower price and are advertising-tolerant, to get what the= y want, makes a lot of sense." The company will try to figure that out over= the next year or two, he says, but "think of us as quite open to offering = even lower prices with advertising." (138 comm= ents)
     
IBM ea= rnings impress
IBM (IB= M) reported better-than-expected first-quarter results led by strong pe= rformance in its software and consulting services businesses. IBM said that= for the first three months of the year it earned $1.40 a share, excluding = one-time items, on $14.2B in revenue. The results topped the estimates of W= all Street analysts, who had forecast the company to earn $1.39 a share, on= sales of $13.84B.

IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said demand for hybrid clo= ud artificial intelligence led the growth in the company's software and con= sulting services, and showed that IBM has become "a more focused business."= Late last year, it spun off its Kyndryl (KD) managed services business as part of a strategy aimed a= t putting more emphasis on software and consulting. (22 comments)
     
Today's Market
In Asia, Japan +0.86%. Hong Kong -0.40%. China -1.35%. India +1.10%.
In Europe, at midd= ay, London +0.37%. Paris +1.19%. Frankfurt <= span class=3D"red" style=3D"color: #ff0000;">+0.86%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.01%. S&P -0.10%. Nasdaq -0.22%. Crude +0.84% to $102.84. Gold -0.41% to $1950.50. Bitcoin +2.22% to $41,566.
Ten-year Treasury= Yield -1.7 bps to 2.898%
Today's Economic Calendar
7:00 = MBA Mo= rtgage Applications
10:00 Existing Home Sales
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories10:30 Fed= 's Daly Speech
11:30 Fed's Evans: Monetary Policy
1:00 PM Fed's Bostic Speech1:00 PM R= esults of $16B, 20-Year Bond Auction
2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book

Companies reporting earnin= gs today =C2=BB
What else is happening...
Florida's DeSantis threatens to pun= ish Twitter (TWTR) for thwar= ting Musk takeover.

Bulls are an 'endangered species,'<= /a> which is bullish.

Atlanta Fed's Bostic says central bank should be careful with fast rate h= ikes.

Precious metals, miners mauled amid talk of more aggressive Fed rate hikes.

Goldman Sa= chs (GS) CEO, deput= ies said to get private-equity-l= ike compensation.

U.S. junk bond spreads widen as debt market prices in slower economic growth= .

CNN parent (W= BD) suspends marketing spendin= g on CNN+, lays off finance chief.
Seeking Alpha=E2=80=99s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast
Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you n= eed to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is= a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working = day.
 
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