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From: Collin Stewart <predictablerevenue-newsletter@mail.beehiiv.com>
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Subject: Keeping Your Aperture Wide
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Hello Andrew,=20

_**Book update: **__122 pre-orders! Thank you to everyone that got their or=
ders in last week, I continue to be blown away by your kind words and encou=
ragement. _

_**Investor list (again): **__In case you missed last week=E2=80=99s email,=
 __I've updated my VC & PE list, but this time, I went and looked at the in=
vestors themselves, found a list of their investments, boards they sit on, =
and categorized the types of investments they've made. There are ~25k inves=
tors all based in the USA. _

_You can order _[_the book_](https://www.amazon.com/Terrifying-Art-Finding-=
Customers-Sleep-Deprived/dp/1774586134)_ here. Email me your receipt and I'=
ll share the sheet with you. If you've already sent me your receipt, just r=
eply back=E2=80=94I know who you are _=F0=9F=99=82_ _

Now to today=E2=80=99s email=E2=80=A6

One of the biggest mistakes I see early founders make in sales is jumping t=
o conclusions too quickly=E2=80=94whether it's falling in love with a name =
on the list and imagining them giving you money, or looking at someone's we=
bsite and thinking "there's no way this is a real prospect." Whether you=E2=
=80=99re building a prospecting campaign or trying to close a few deals, if=
 you haven=E2=80=99t closed many customers, the honest answer is: **you don=
't know yet**.

## The Unexpected Wins

When I was growing Carb, I treated every reply like gold. Every lead like i=
t might close. I had just come from my previous startup attempt where leads=
 were non-existent=E2=80=94a reply from a prospect was like a cold drink of=
 water in the middle of the desert. I did this not because I believed they =
all would close, but because I had no idea which ones would. I "manufacture=
d serendipity" by showing up fully and working each opportunity to the best=
 possible outcome. Some of the best deals came from places I didn't expect.

I once had a prospect where I was confident our product wouldn=E2=80=99t wo=
rk in their market so I told them so. Intellectual honesty in the sales pro=
cess is a non-negotiable for me. They disagreed with me and still wanted to=
 try it. Say what you will about salespeople, but this one will tell you th=
e truth, even if he=E2=80=99s wrong. And in this case, I was wrong. Super w=
rong. This client ended up beating all our benchmarks, turned out to be our=
 first case study, and was one of our longest running clients.

On the flip side, I've seen founders get burned by doing the opposite=E2=80=
=94writing off prospects before they even get on a call because they didn't=
 fit a super narrow ideal customer profile, or because their first message =
didn't land.=C2=A0

## Evidence =3D Confidence in Your Entire Sales Motion

Now zoom out: this isn't just about how you close=E2=80=94it's about how ev=
idence drives confidence across your entire sales motion. The more evidence=
 you have, the more confident you can be in two critical areas: who to targ=
et and how to message them (your prospecting pipeline), and how to qualify =
and prioritize the opportunities you create (your sales pipeline).

Here's how this plays out:

**In your prospecting pipeline:** Evidence tells you which prospects are wo=
rth pursuing and what messaging will resonate. Early on, you cast a wide ne=
t because you don't know yet. As you collect data points=E2=80=94which titl=
es respond, which industries engage, which pain points hit=E2=80=94you can =
narrow your targeting and sharpen your messaging.

**In your sales pipeline:** Evidence tells you how to qualify opportunities=
 and where to invest your time. Without historical data on what good looks =
like, every prospect seems equally promising (or equally risky). With evide=
nce, you can spot the patterns that predict real deals versus tire-kickers.

The continuum works the same way in both:

**High evidence =3D high confidence decisions.** Your targeting can be lase=
r-focused because you know your ICP. Your messaging can be direct because y=
ou know what resonates. Your qualification can be strict because you know w=
hat good opportunities look like.

**Low evidence =3D wide aperture required.** Broader targeting because you'=
re still learning who cares. Multiple messaging angles because you don't kn=
ow what will land. Generous qualification because you can't afford to miss =
the unexpected winner.

## The Shift

This shift isn't just tactical=E2=80=94it's philosophical. The evidence you=
 have (or don't have) should fundamentally change your approach:

**High evidence =3D Direct Response:** "Here's what we do, here's why someo=
ne like you needs it." You can make assumptions because they're based on pa=
tterns from actual closed deals.

**Low evidence =3D Relationship First:** You need to invest in creating val=
ue and relationships before you ever try to sell anything.

## The Relationship-First Mindset

Here's what most early-stage founders miss: relationship-first prospecting =
takes more work than direct response. The deals take longer to enter your p=
ipeline, and you have to actually invest time in creating real relationship=
s. Whether it's interviewing them for customer development, inviting them o=
n your podcast, or finding something else you can do together that creates =
genuine value for them.

The relationship-first mindset has a specific goal: establish a relationshi=
p with a future prospect and either let them opt-in to the sales process na=
turally, or ask them at the end of your first value-creating interaction=E2=
=80=94not at the beginning.

When your targeting is wide (because you don't have evidence yet), direct a=
sk messaging tends to fall flat. You're reaching people with varied needs, =
priorities, and contexts. Your assumptions won't always land. A CFO at a 50=
-person startup has completely different pain points than a CFO at a 500-pe=
rson company, even if they both fit your firmographic filters.

Instead, use open-ended approaches that work regardless of their specific s=
ituation. Ask for feedback on your approach. Offer genuine value=E2=80=94in=
sights, connections, resources. Invite them to a podcast or roundtable wher=
e they can learn something useful even if they never buy. Give them a reaso=
n to talk that isn't contingent on them being in-market right now.

## The Math

Let me show you why this matters with real numbers. Let's say you're doing =
500 prospects per month for 6 months:

**Direct Approach:**

* 0.5% reply rate, 30% positive responses

* 3,000 total outreach =E2=86=92 15 replies =E2=86=92 **5 pipeline opportun=
ities**

* 2 weeks from prospect to pipeline

* 100 hours total time investment

**Relationship Approach:**

* 5% reply rate, 80% positive responses

* 3,000 total outreach =E2=86=92 150 replies =E2=86=92 **120 pipeline oppor=
tunities**

* 4 weeks from prospect to pipeline

* 750 hours total time investment

The relationship approach generates 26.7x more pipeline opportunities and i=
s 3.6x more efficient per hour invested. Yes, it requires more time upfront=
. But for early-stage founders who need to learn from customers and create =
content with them, this is another win.

The direct approach gives you 5 chances to learn what works. The relationsh=
ip approach gives you 120 chances=E2=80=94plus deeper relationships that co=
mpound over time.

## When You've Collected Enough Evidence

So how do you know when to transition from relationship-first to direct res=
ponse? It's simple: you look at your closed deals.

The transition happens when you've closed deals that match specific company=
 and persona profiles. The more closed deals you have with similar characte=
ristics, the higher your confidence can be. You start recognizing patterns:=
 "We consistently win with X type of company facing Y problem."

This evidence comes from actual closed revenue=E2=80=94not just conversatio=
ns, interest, or positive feedback. Until you have repeatable patterns in y=
our closed deals, you haven't collected enough evidence to narrow your appr=
oach.

You can predict with reasonable accuracy which prospects will engage and wh=
ich won't. Your messaging resonates consistently across a defined segment. =
You're seeing repeatable patterns in objections, use cases, and buying proc=
esses.

## The Long Game: Earning the Right to Be Direct

Remember: this isn't about being inefficient. It's about being efficient at=
 the right thing. Early on, your most important job isn't closing deals (th=
ough that's nice when it happens). It's learning fast enough to build somet=
hing people actually want to buy.

The founders who win long-term are the ones who earn the right to be direct=
 by first being generous. They collect evidence through actual closed deals=
 before making assumptions. They stay relationship-first until they know en=
ough to be selective.

The earlier you are, the more generous and open your approach needs to be. =
You're not selling yet=E2=80=94you're collecting evidence. You're learning =
what "good" looks like. This requires a particular kind of discipline: the =
discipline of admitting you don't know what you don't know.

Most founders struggle with this because it feels like weakness. We're supp=
osed to have conviction, right? We're supposed to know our market inside an=
d out. But there's a difference between having conviction about the problem=
 you're solving and having premature certainty about exactly who has that p=
roblem and how they want it solved.

The strongest founders I know hold both truths simultaneously: unwavering b=
elief in their vision, paired with genuine curiosity about how that vision =
should manifest in the real world.

So until you _know_=E2=80=94until you have repeatable patterns in your clos=
ed deals=E2=80=94don't narrow your view too early. Keep your aperture wide.=
 Treat every reply like it matters. Show up fully for each opportunity. Tha=
t's how you manufacture serendipity and earn the right to go direct later.

The most successful sales motion is the one built on evidence, not assumpti=
ons. Start wide, learn fast, then direct your fire when you know where to a=
im.

Until next time, keep your aperture wide and your assumptions in check.

Collin=C2=A0

PS - bonus tactic time, the second-best part of establishing so many relati=
onships early on is access to the right people. These are folks that can gi=
ve you advice when you=E2=80=99re considering a pivot, can refer you to oth=
er folks that might be a good fit, and might one day become pipeline themse=
lves. All it takes is a little [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spread=
sheets/d/1DE0fGKgzP-zd4Z4kyPOsHHQPvd9q5HDlQIWoQF48a3I/edit?gid=3D1314033796=
#gid=3D1314033796) and remembering to drop them an email monthly=E2=80=A6 T=
hat reminds me, I have a few nurture emails to send out myself today.=C2=A0


=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94

You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience,=
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wrap:normal;word-spacing:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div role=3D"art=
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style=3D"font-size:1rem"><table role=3D"none" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" c=
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"top" style=3D"padding:10px 5px 10px 5px;"><table role=3D"none" width=3D"10=
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rder=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" align=3D"center"><tr id=3D"h=
eader"><td style=3D"padding:15px 15px 0px 15px;"><div style=3D"padding-top:=
0px;padding-right:0px;padding-bottom:20px;padding-left:0px;"><table role=3D=
"none" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" alig=
n=3D"center"><tr><td class=3D"f" align=3D"right" valign=3D"top"><p> August =
08, 2025 &nbsp; | &nbsp; <a href=3D"https://link.mail.beehiiv.com/ss/c/u001=
.r7o6LfRLXwQ-3g4cvdmKtd8SJB4D4z2stBRrWAMoYsjFbihLkw_aH2_m9dKG7N6slsmhqC8iG_=
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sEgyO44Wel9fCBkcTJQFOYdILqN-ENdTdqqdiTb3t4Hrv5EkohGFD3tVAQSKmU/4iv/tPjzHw2G=
SOaTrgc784l_aQ/h0/h001.lPe59d6woBgbSdZB96p1oOS-u18KP7HwBLP_Wzyhdwg"><span c=
lass=3D"translation_missing" title=3D"translation missing: en.templates.pos=
ts.email.header.read_online">Read Online</span></a></p></td></tr><tr><td cl=
ass=3D"dd" align=3D"center" valign=3D"top" style=3D"padding:15px 0;"><table=
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"0" align=3D"center"><tr><td align=3D"center" valign=3D"top"><h1 style=3D"t=
ext-align:left;font-family:'Trebuchet MS','Lucida Grande',Tahoma,sans-serif=
;font-weight:Bold;font-size:32px;color:#2A2A2A;padding:2px 0;line-height:38=
px;"> Keeping Your Aperture Wide </h1></td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td a=
lign=3D"center" valign=3D"top" class=3D"dd"><table role=3D"none" width=3D"1=
00%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" align=3D"center"><tr>=
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none" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" align=3D"left" style=
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yBoSwgSdDaOALV1MAeTHOBSUWCqEjdMxJtRDlZvsKnAu88fuP77Fa517iEnn6h_MBexqszx8vnM=
DyVce9GUV0zo00Hn-D4Z-C7PEmhRdYZA9EuVcc5QVUvbf5JIUlM2InwbL4pxxAIGRcWrJEiEmyU=
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hFZy6p72PWH8HlhTLF02ZYKqKfFBXUSgydpCmuj9Z3EMAkwyE2olAOJu8Oo-NLiIE-sovMd6svc=
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teoBXRUPrNXbqfixQ_D2dj8l5G8" style=3D"text-decoration:none; display:block;"=
><table role=3D"none" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" alig=
n=3D"center"><tr><td align=3D"center" valign=3D"middle" style=3D"border: 1p=
x solid #E5E7EB; border-radius: 100%; width: 18px; height: 18px; padding: 8=
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max-height:18px; object-fit: contain;" alt=3D"share on facebook" width=3D"1=
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ebook.png"/></td></tr></table></a></td><td width=3D"8" style=3D"width:8px;"=
>&nbsp;</td><td align=3D"center" valign=3D"middle"><a href=3D"https://link.=
mail.beehiiv.com/ss/c/u001.eT_HH9j2kUx6jXW0PHemwzOjQOpuqUKCn7LAbiCzlo1oxUN4=
4u16xvalV9lCzdHNf-2oVWwF8nFIujoz8Z4ultPayspV7EV3WtW764jIYdEtFIKVyHmJhLy4cbi=
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ITuP9S-zeZ-GgMRQc-a29lhIjT4ksTRNQsrzOU3T4xALPxdsFOAKSMiujRhGnMpMDJHhg/4iv/t=
PjzHw2GSOaTrgc784l_aQ/h2/h001.na-pV17wAAbIZnsAa9vG03nTvk0coRkZjlFYOk8hH0Q" =
style=3D"text-decoration:none; display:block;"><table role=3D"none" border=
=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" align=3D"center"><tr><td align=
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dius: 100%; width: 18px; height: 18px; padding: 8px;"><img style=3D"display=
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/tr></table></a></td><td width=3D"8" style=3D"width:8px;">&nbsp;</td><td al=
ign=3D"center" valign=3D"middle"><a href=3D"https://link.mail.beehiiv.com/s=
s/c/u001.UY7-jEMcRLZ5W6M0bzLpm9U9S1JYcj8zH88ooT01vXOKGqw1BJYJi8XJOykB3s2LWl=
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_aQ/h3/h001.03jcFgKeeLNvf8pDoN3LjdNvsUttIIudXT6dOUUFo30" style=3D"text-deco=
ration:none; display:block;"><table role=3D"none" border=3D"0" cellspacing=
=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" align=3D"center"><tr><td align=3D"center" valign=
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 18px; height: 18px; padding: 8px;"><img style=3D"display:block; width:100%=
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redirect,quality=3D80/static_assets/header/threads.png"/></td></tr></table>=
</a></td><td width=3D"8" style=3D"width:8px;">&nbsp;</td><td align=3D"cente=
r" valign=3D"middle"><a href=3D"https://link.mail.beehiiv.com/ss/c/u001.UY7=
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 alt=3D"share on linkedin" width=3D"18" height=3D"18" border=3D"0" src=3D"h=
ttps://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=3Dscale-down,format=3Dauto,onerr=
or=3Dredirect,quality=3D80/static_assets/header/linkedin.png"/></td></tr></=
table></a></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr><=
tr><td style=3D"height:0px;width:0px;"><div style=3D"height:1px;" data-open=
-tracking=3D"true"> <img src=3D"https://link.mail.beehiiv.com/ss/o/u001.QDl=
44NxZBc1mRkS74rGpGQ/4iv/tPjzHw2GSOaTrgc784l_aQ/ho.gif" alt=3D"" width=3D"1"=
 height=3D"1" border=3D"0" style=3D"height:1px !important;width:1px !import=
ant;border-width:0 !important;margin-top:0 !important;margin-bottom:0 !impo=
rtant;margin-right:0 !important;margin-left:0 !important;padding-top:0 !imp=
ortant;padding-bottom:0 !important;padding-right:0 !important;padding-left:=
0 !important;"/> </div></td></tr></table></div></td></tr><tr id=3D"content-=
blocks"><td class=3D"email-card-body" align=3D"center" valign=3D"top" style=
=3D"padding-bottom:15px;"><table role=3D"none" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" =
cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" align=3D"center"><tr><td class=3D"dd" a=
lign=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-wo=
rd;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, =
62, 80);">Hello Andrew, </span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"=
left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p =
style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);=
"><i><b>Book update: </b></i></span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">=
<i>122 pre-orders! Thank you to everyone that got their orders in last week=
, I continue to be blown away by your kind words and encouragement. </i></s=
pan></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px =
15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-al=
t:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><i><b>Investor list (agai=
n): </b></i></span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><i>In case you mi=
ssed last week=E2=80=99s email, </i></span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62,=
 80);"><i>I&#39;ve updated my VC & PE list, but this time, I went and looke=
d at the investors themselves, found a list of their investments, boards th=
ey sit on, and categorized the types of investments they&#39;ve made. There=
 are ~25k investors all based in the USA. </i></span></p></td></tr><tr><td =
class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-=
break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"=
color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><i>You can order </i></span><span style=3D"color:rg=
b(44, 62, 80);"><a class=3D"link" href=3D"https://link.mail.beehiiv.com/ss/=
c/u001.UY7-jEMcRLZ5W6M0bzLpmzKZu4CMZ-4VPqYNLlg6yrGxR2XQhddm9dZyX6mpnTOell2B=
YjET-Y8l9HDSfj1AJQh-u__Ozm5nzjGP54xQkGt8BkBwNf31D79F3CPl6rqE0csmgiDjAQi8JfW=
YU1YHq8qLIL3rukeIoNRtPc66neihCiQ-9xchQDhpEmGm0BdyeVcBEA0MoE_F6UUOZBlOjdB_YM=
EzQst0RiVG5iScyRFEpkJqJ66qF4lQOaJME3ft0QW5ncYELw0tzK7lUEgkT2TvUvHSXOWKm1tSU=
UfTyxc7TkW366vlRTq2TYiaVINN/4iv/tPjzHw2GSOaTrgc784l_aQ/h5/h001.090bSZBQHsmi=
4UKfCOhjj3mcqT4P3_9USv3ZSoyeQSk" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferr=
er nofollow"><span><i>the book</i></span></a></span><span style=3D"color:rg=
b(44, 62, 80);"><i> here. Email me your receipt and I&#39;ll share the shee=
t with you. If you&#39;ve already sent me your receipt, just reply back=E2=
=80=94I know who you are </i></span>=F0=9F=99=82<span style=3D"color:rgb(44=
, 62, 80);"><i>=C2=A0</i></span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D=
"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p=
 style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80)=
;">Now to today=E2=80=99s email=E2=80=A6</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=
=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break=
:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color=
:rgb(44, 62, 80);">One of the biggest mistakes I see early founders make in=
 sales is jumping to conclusions too quickly=E2=80=94whether it&#39;s falli=
ng in love with a name on the list and imagining them giving you money, or =
looking at someone&#39;s website and thinking &quot;there&#39;s no way this=
 is a real prospect.&quot; Whether you=E2=80=99re building a prospecting ca=
mpaign or trying to close a few deals, if you haven=E2=80=99t closed many c=
ustomers, the honest answer is: </span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80)=
;font-weight:700;"><b>you don&#39;t know yet</b></span><span style=3D"color=
:rgb(44, 62, 80);">.</span></p></td></tr><tr><td id=3D"the-unexpected-wins"=
 class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" valign=3D"top" style=3D"color:#2A2A2A;font-wei=
ght:normal;padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;"><h2 style=3D"color:#2A2A2A;fo=
nt-weight:normal;mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, =
62, 80);">The Unexpected Wins</span></h2></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" ali=
gn=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word=
;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62=
, 80);">When I was growing Carb, I treated every reply like gold. Every lea=
d like it might close. I had just come from my previous startup attempt whe=
re leads were non-existent=E2=80=94a reply from a prospect was like a cold =
drink of water in the middle of the desert. I did this not because I believ=
ed they all would close, but because I had no idea which ones would. I &quo=
t;manufactured serendipity&quot; by showing up fully and working each oppor=
tunity to the best possible outcome. Some of the best deals came from place=
s I didn&#39;t expect.</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"le=
ft" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p st=
yle=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">=
I once had a prospect where I was confident our product wouldn=E2=80=99t wo=
rk in their market so I told them so. Intellectual honesty in the sales pro=
cess is a non-negotiable for me. They disagreed with me and still wanted to=
 try it. Say what you will about salespeople, but this one will tell you th=
e truth, even if he=E2=80=99s wrong. And in this case, I was wrong. Super w=
rong. This client ended up beating all our benchmarks, turned out to be our=
 first case study, and was one of our longest running clients.</span></p></=
td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-=
align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"=
><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">On the flip side, I&#39;ve seen fou=
nders get burned by doing the opposite=E2=80=94writing off prospects before=
 they even get on a call because they didn&#39;t fit a super narrow ideal c=
ustomer profile, or because their first message didn&#39;t land.=C2=A0</spa=
n></p></td></tr><tr><td id=3D"evidence-confidence-in-your-entire-" class=3D=
"dd" align=3D"left" valign=3D"top" style=3D"color:#2A2A2A;font-weight:norma=
l;padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;"><h2 style=3D"color:#2A2A2A;font-weight=
:normal;mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"=
>Evidence =3D Confidence in Your Entire Sales Motion</span></h2></td></tr><=
tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:lef=
t;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span st=
yle=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Now zoom out: this isn&#39;t just about how =
you close=E2=80=94it&#39;s about how evidence drives confidence across your=
 entire sales motion. The more evidence you have, the more confident you ca=
n be in two critical areas: who to target and how to message them (your pro=
specting pipeline), and how to qualify and prioritize the opportunities you=
 create (your sales pipeline).</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" ali=
gn=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word=
;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62=
, 80);">Here&#39;s how this plays out:</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D=
"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:br=
eak-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rg=
b(44, 62, 80);font-weight:700;"><b>In your prospecting pipeline:</b></span>=
<span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"> Evidence tells you which prospects =
are worth pursuing and what messaging will resonate. Early on, you cast a w=
ide net because you don&#39;t know yet. As you collect data points=E2=80=94=
which titles respond, which industries engage, which pain points hit=E2=80=
=94you can narrow your targeting and sharpen your messaging.</span></p></td=
></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-al=
ign:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><=
span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);font-weight:700;"><b>In your sales pipe=
line:</b></span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"> Evidence tells you =
how to qualify opportunities and where to invest your time. Without histori=
cal data on what good looks like, every prospect seems equally promising (o=
r equally risky). With evidence, you can spot the patterns that predict rea=
l deals versus tire-kickers.</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=
=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"=
><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, =
80);">The continuum works the same way in both:</span></p></td></tr><tr><td=
 class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word=
-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D=
"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);font-weight:700;"><b>High evidence =3D high confiden=
ce decisions.</b></span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"> Your target=
ing can be laser-focused because you know your ICP. Your messaging can be d=
irect because you know what resonates. Your qualification can be strict bec=
ause you know what good opportunities look like.</span></p></td></tr><tr><t=
d class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;wor=
d-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=
=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);font-weight:700;"><b>Low evidence =3D wide apertu=
re required.</b></span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"> Broader targ=
eting because you&#39;re still learning who cares. Multiple messaging angle=
s because you don&#39;t know what will land. Generous qualification because=
 you can&#39;t afford to miss the unexpected winner.</span></p></td></tr><t=
r><td id=3D"the-shift" class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" valign=3D"top" style=3D"=
color:#2A2A2A;font-weight:normal;padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;"><h2 sty=
le=3D"color:#2A2A2A;font-weight:normal;mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span s=
tyle=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">The Shift</span></h2></td></tr><tr><td clas=
s=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-brea=
k:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"colo=
r:rgb(44, 62, 80);">This shift isn&#39;t just tactical=E2=80=94it&#39;s phi=
losophical. The evidence you have (or don&#39;t have) should fundamentally =
change your approach:</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"lef=
t" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p sty=
le=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);fon=
t-weight:700;"><b>High evidence =3D Direct Response:</b></span><span style=
=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"> &quot;Here&#39;s what we do, here&#39;s why so=
meone like you needs it.&quot; You can make assumptions because they&#39;re=
 based on patterns from actual closed deals.</span></p></td></tr><tr><td cl=
ass=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-br=
eak:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"co=
lor:rgb(44, 62, 80);font-weight:700;"><b>Low evidence =3D Relationship Firs=
t:</b></span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"> You need to invest in =
creating value and relationships before you ever try to sell anything.</spa=
n></p></td></tr><tr><td id=3D"the-relationship-first-mindset" class=3D"dd" =
align=3D"left" valign=3D"top" style=3D"color:#2A2A2A;font-weight:normal;pad=
ding:0px 15px;text-align:left;"><h2 style=3D"color:#2A2A2A;font-weight:norm=
al;mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">The =
Relationship-First Mindset</span></h2></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=
=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"=
><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, =
80);">Here&#39;s what most early-stage founders miss: relationship-first pr=
ospecting takes more work than direct response. The deals take longer to en=
ter your pipeline, and you have to actually invest time in creating real re=
lationships. Whether it&#39;s interviewing them for customer development, i=
nviting them on your podcast, or finding something else you can do together=
 that creates genuine value for them.</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"=
dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:bre=
ak-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb=
(44, 62, 80);">The relationship-first mindset has a specific goal: establis=
h a relationship with a future prospect and either let them opt-in to the s=
ales process naturally, or ask them at the end of your first value-creating=
 interaction=E2=80=94not at the beginning.</span></p></td></tr><tr><td clas=
s=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-brea=
k:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"colo=
r:rgb(44, 62, 80);">When your targeting is wide (because you don&#39;t have=
 evidence yet), direct ask messaging tends to fall flat. You&#39;re reachin=
g people with varied needs, priorities, and contexts. Your assumptions won&=
#39;t always land. A CFO at a 50-person startup has completely different pa=
in points than a CFO at a 500-person company, even if they both fit your fi=
rmographic filters.</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left"=
 style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=
=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Ins=
tead, use open-ended approaches that work regardless of their specific situ=
ation. Ask for feedback on your approach. Offer genuine value=E2=80=94insig=
hts, connections, resources. Invite them to a podcast or roundtable where t=
hey can learn something useful even if they never buy. Give them a reason t=
o talk that isn&#39;t contingent on them being in-market right now.</span><=
/p></td></tr><tr><td id=3D"the-math" class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" valign=3D"=
top" style=3D"color:#2A2A2A;font-weight:normal;padding:0px 15px;text-align:=
left;"><h2 style=3D"color:#2A2A2A;font-weight:normal;mso-line-height-alt:15=
0.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">The Math</span></h2></td></tr=
><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:l=
eft;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span =
style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Let me show you why this matters with real=
 numbers. Let&#39;s say you&#39;re doing 500 prospects per month for 6 mont=
hs:</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"paddin=
g:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-hei=
ght-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);font-weight:700;"><b>=
Direct Approach:</b></span></p></td></tr><tr><td style=3D"padding-bottom:12=
px;padding-left:37px;padding-right:27px;padding-top:12px;" class=3D"ee"><di=
v style=3D"margin-left:0px;" class=3D"edm_outlooklist"><ul style=3D"font-we=
ight:normal;list-style-type:disc;margin-bottom:12px !important;margin-top:1=
2px !important;padding:0px 0px 0px 0px;"><li class=3D"listItem ultext"><p s=
tyle=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;padding:0px;text-align:left;word-break:b=
reak-word;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">0.5% reply rate, 30% pos=
itive responses</span></p></li><li class=3D"listItem ultext"><p style=3D"ms=
o-line-height-alt:150.0%;padding:0px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;=
"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">3,000 total outreach =E2=86=92 15 =
replies =E2=86=92 </span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);font-weight:7=
00;"><b>5 pipeline opportunities</b></span></p></li><li class=3D"listItem u=
ltext"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;padding:0px;text-align:left;w=
ord-break:break-word;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">2 weeks from =
prospect to pipeline</span></p></li><li class=3D"listItem ultext"><p style=
=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;padding:0px;text-align:left;word-break:break=
-word;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">100 hours total time investm=
ent</span></p></li></ul></div></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left"=
 style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=
=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);font-=
weight:700;"><b>Relationship Approach:</b></span></p></td></tr><tr><td styl=
e=3D"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:37px;padding-right:27px;padding-top:1=
2px;" class=3D"ee"><div style=3D"margin-left:0px;" class=3D"edm_outlooklist=
"><ul style=3D"font-weight:normal;list-style-type:disc;margin-bottom:12px !=
important;margin-top:12px !important;padding:0px 0px 0px 0px;"><li class=3D=
"listItem ultext"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;padding:0px;text-a=
lign:left;word-break:break-word;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">5%=
 reply rate, 80% positive responses</span></p></li><li class=3D"listItem ul=
text"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;padding:0px;text-align:left;wo=
rd-break:break-word;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">3,000 total ou=
treach =E2=86=92 150 replies =E2=86=92 </span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, =
62, 80);font-weight:700;"><b>120 pipeline opportunities</b></span></p></li>=
<li class=3D"listItem ultext"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;paddin=
g:0px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, =
62, 80);">4 weeks from prospect to pipeline</span></p></li><li class=3D"lis=
tItem ultext"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;padding:0px;text-align=
:left;word-break:break-word;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">750 ho=
urs total time investment</span></p></li></ul></div></td></tr><tr><td class=
=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break=
:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color=
:rgb(44, 62, 80);">The relationship approach generates 26.7x more pipeline =
opportunities and is 3.6x more efficient per hour invested. Yes, it require=
s more time upfront. But for early-stage founders who need to learn from cu=
stomers and create content with them, this is another win.</span></p></td><=
/tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-alig=
n:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><sp=
an style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">The direct approach gives you 5 chances=
 to learn what works. The relationship approach gives you 120 chances=E2=80=
=94plus deeper relationships that compound over time.</span></p></td></tr><=
tr><td id=3D"when-youve-collected-enough-evidenc" class=3D"dd" align=3D"lef=
t" valign=3D"top" style=3D"color:#2A2A2A;font-weight:normal;padding:0px 15p=
x;text-align:left;"><h2 style=3D"color:#2A2A2A;font-weight:normal;mso-line-=
height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">When You&#39;ve =
Collected Enough Evidence</span></h2></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=
=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"=
><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, =
80);">So how do you know when to transition from relationship-first to dire=
ct response? It&#39;s simple: you look at your closed deals.</span></p></td=
></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-al=
ign:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><=
span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">The transition happens when you&#39;v=
e closed deals that match specific company and persona profiles. The more c=
losed deals you have with similar characteristics, the higher your confiden=
ce can be. You start recognizing patterns: &quot;We consistently win with X=
 type of company facing Y problem.&quot;</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=
=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break=
:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color=
:rgb(44, 62, 80);">This evidence comes from actual closed revenue=E2=80=94n=
ot just conversations, interest, or positive feedback. Until you have repea=
table patterns in your closed deals, you haven&#39;t collected enough evide=
nce to narrow your approach.</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=
=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"=
><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, =
80);">You can predict with reasonable accuracy which prospects will engage =
and which won&#39;t. Your messaging resonates consistently across a defined=
 segment. You&#39;re seeing repeatable patterns in objections, use cases, a=
nd buying processes.</span></p></td></tr><tr><td id=3D"the-long-game-earnin=
g-the-right-to-" class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" valign=3D"top" style=3D"color:=
#2A2A2A;font-weight:normal;padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;"><h2 style=3D"=
color:#2A2A2A;font-weight:normal;mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=
=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">The Long Game: Earning the Right to Be Direct</=
span></h2></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0p=
x 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-=
alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Remember: this isn&#39;=
t about being inefficient. It&#39;s about being efficient at the right thin=
g. Early on, your most important job isn&#39;t closing deals (though that&#=
39;s nice when it happens). It&#39;s learning fast enough to build somethin=
g people actually want to buy.</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" ali=
gn=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word=
;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62=
, 80);">The founders who win long-term are the ones who earn the right to b=
e direct by first being generous. They collect evidence through actual clos=
ed deals before making assumptions. They stay relationship-first until they=
 know enough to be selective.</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" alig=
n=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;=
"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62,=
 80);">The earlier you are, the more generous and open your approach needs =
to be. You&#39;re not selling yet=E2=80=94you&#39;re collecting evidence. Y=
ou&#39;re learning what &quot;good&quot; looks like. This requires a partic=
ular kind of discipline: the discipline of admitting you don&#39;t know wha=
t you don&#39;t know.</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"lef=
t" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p sty=
le=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">M=
ost founders struggle with this because it feels like weakness. We&#39;re s=
upposed to have conviction, right? We&#39;re supposed to know our market in=
side and out. But there&#39;s a difference between having conviction about =
the problem you&#39;re solving and having premature certainty about exactly=
 who has that problem and how they want it solved.</span></p></td></tr><tr>=
<td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;w=
ord-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=
=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">The strongest founders I know hold both truths =
simultaneously: unwavering belief in their vision, paired with genuine curi=
osity about how that vision should manifest in the real world.</span></p></=
td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-=
align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"=
><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">So until you </span><span style=3D"=
color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><i>know</i></span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, =
80);">=E2=80=94until you have repeatable patterns in your closed deals=E2=
=80=94don&#39;t narrow your view too early. Keep your aperture wide. Treat =
every reply like it matters. Show up fully for each opportunity. That&#39;s=
 how you manufacture serendipity and earn the right to go direct later.</sp=
an></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 1=
5px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt=
:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">The most successful sales =
motion is the one built on evidence, not assumptions. Start wide, learn fas=
t, then direct your fire when you know where to aim.</span></p></td></tr><t=
r><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left=
;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span sty=
le=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Until next time, keep your aperture wide and =
your assumptions in check.</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=
=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"=
><p style=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, =
80);">Collin=C2=A0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" =
style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=
=3D"mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">PS =
- bonus tactic time, the second-best part of establishing so many relations=
hips early on is access to the right people. These are folks that can give =
you advice when you=E2=80=99re considering a pivot, can refer you to other =
folks that might be a good fit, and might one day become pipeline themselve=
s. All it takes is a little </span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><=
a class=3D"link" href=3D"https://link.mail.beehiiv.com/ss/c/u001.VPQbJ-t6Sb=
EWV-D-Q4fReNs0Bx7eJS6zYItpuswmpPFLfhCwX9hE_RKR5VdEk6j1m3d0Kgl7NW1OnAx8frnqo=
PqHAz4Uq5r8EnPV3q5gm6-BRs6gJdVUOpgfhZJte9OD9Pkw6qs75jx4QfZ2HYFYgP2oWgRlaiRL=
Di16qkiqqV_HOJHVfCnKlEJ9eX7jGKT1wQNsY6Jk68H3W4P7pSZH-fYFLNSAYZ2JsKmV6vsKkv7=
cydBC0tLBzTqFw3dqqpSAsxrEoK6t_afou50kzZ72r26_s0jQglV0I6TXYe56U-y4KI6MJuR4wd=
xRl86z71qphIcoq1CSz691OjKQzl8fN1rFRkfVdkAMnnP4j37hsWA/4iv/tPjzHw2GSOaTrgc78=
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" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer nofollow"><span>spreadsheet</span></a></span><=
span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"> and remembering to drop them an emai=
l monthly=E2=80=A6 That reminds me, I have a few nurture emails to send out=
 myself today.=C2=A0</span></p></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></t=
r><tr><td align=3D"center" valign=3D"top"><table role=3D"none" width=3D"100=
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