Return-Path: Delivered-To: andrew@sterlingcal.com Received: from reseller401.webserversystems.com by reseller401.webserversystems.com with LMTP id WFRjItrOXmiMdAwAchKAPA (envelope-from ) for ; Fri, 27 Jun 2025 12:03:22 -0500 Return-path: Envelope-to: andrew@sterlingcal.com Delivery-date: Fri, 27 Jun 2025 12:03:22 -0500 Received: from o6.ptr8314.mail.beehiiv.com ([149.72.214.254]:9908) by reseller401.webserversystems.com with esmtps (TLS1.2) tls TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_128_GCM_SHA256 (Exim 4.98.1) (envelope-from ) id 1uVCTx-00000003RiB-2UPv for andrew@sterlingcal.com; Fri, 27 Jun 2025 12:03:22 -0500 DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=mail.beehiiv.com; h=content-type:from:mime-version:subject:reply-to:list-unsubscribe: list-unsubscribe-post:to:cc:content-type:from:subject:to; s=s1; bh=0TejQJxsBKQBFUL8ZFiRujiL0xxkWxX4B80i99Xz6OA=; b=E8LO0J/1erIomhVnnFaRAOexrY0aHk2cFsuIkn8XQXjx3gJISnhlASD/8baktrUr6k5v s/30P7VEJp4gBG5/3VhhCm8FpvTYoCZibZvovDVF4JJNiQi14YQAd5JIo5Phn5nZNn9yAf un7h90YuOrdRaVJScd0EKubWxjuKWBWwaVBoLmLXaw6LxIPeFOC2XGJa9oviZeO2PyRZRq OTHZtFyDuocz58sIU2lOho6KNxEPq4vQ9jgCy/L9Luh63Y2k3nreYQmBS0lr3SuFqaLLE7 XUdJukgv2n15O7ZzM53dR72scJGgvPhp+syCajAr9wfP2BRWofFaQ0NKa93U+awA== Received: by recvd-7487445b-7nrwl with SMTP id recvd-7487445b-7nrwl-1-685ECE98-152 2025-06-27 17:02:16.927685918 +0000 UTC m=+1988260.347646823 Received: from NDAyMzQxODk (unknown) by geopod-ismtpd-9 (SG) with HTTP id IgDMpJmqT1i73vqcDfD_sg Fri, 27 Jun 2025 17:02:16.743 +0000 (UTC) Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary=20515fe21df964f4a6b0df53bf85dded909eef3bf1130e68c4faa34d45fb Date: Fri, 27 Jun 2025 17:03:10 +0000 (UTC) From: Collin Stewart Mime-Version: 1.0 Message-ID: Subject: Why =?UTF-8?B?SeKAmW0=?= optimistic about AI Reply-To: Collin Stewart Feedback-ID: =?us-ascii?Q?d878f5b7-6a14-4096-bd62-021e46663520=3Anewsletter=3A3c5b97ff-00a9-?= =?us-ascii?Q?4acc-916d-c137bca24b1d=3A23270855726497d?= List-Unsubscribe: =?us-ascii?Q?=3Cmailto=3A3c5b97ff-00a9-4acc-916d-c137bca24b1d+1d17dc26-c1df-44e?= =?us-ascii?Q?0-812a-883b6ad5b6bc+d878f5b7-6a14-4096-?= =?us-ascii?Q?bd62-021e46663520=40unsub=2Ebeehiiv=2Ecom=3E=2C?= =?us-ascii?Q?_=3Chttps=3A=2F=2Ffoundersedition=2Eco=2Funsubscribe=2FeyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbG?= =?us-ascii?Q?ciOiJIUzI1NiJ9=2EeyJzdWJzY3JpYmVyX2lkIjoi?= =?us-ascii?Q?MWQxN2RjMjYtYzFkZi00NGUwLTgxMmEtODgzYjZ?= =?us-ascii?Q?hZDViNmJjIiwicG9zdF9pZCI6ImQ4NzhmNWI3LT?= =?us-ascii?Q?ZhMTQtNDA5Ni1iZDYyLTAyMWU0NjY2MzUyMCIsI?= =?us-ascii?Q?mxhc3RfcmVzb3VyY2VfZ3VpZCI6IlBvc3Q6ZDg3?= =?us-ascii?Q?OGY1YjctNmExNC00MDk2LWJkNjItMDIxZTQ2NjY?= =?us-ascii?Q?zNTIwIn0=2E2g31cOPs1TtzN1JvS4iHjQnPdgt=5FTw?= =?us-ascii?Q?GFeGm6HZ7SmcI=3E?= List-Unsubscribe-Post: List-Unsubscribe=One-Click sId: 3c5b97ff-00a9-4acc-916d-c137bca24b1d x-beehiiv-ids: =?us-ascii?Q?{=22account=5Fname=22=3A=22https=3A=2F=2Ffoundersedition=2Eco=2F=22=2C=22campaign=5Fid=22=3A=22d?= =?us-ascii?Q?878f5b7-6a14-4096-bd62-021e46663520=22=2C=22c?= =?us-ascii?Q?ategory=22=3A=22newsletter=22=2C=22email=5Fgenerated=5F?= =?us-ascii?Q?at=22=3A1751043736=2C=22user=5Fid=22=3A=223c5b97ff-00a9?= =?us-ascii?Q?-4acc-916d-c137bca24b1d=22}?= x-beehiiv-type: newsletter x-list-id: 3c5b97ff-00a9-4acc-916d-c137bca24b1d x-list-owner: x-newsletter: https://foundersedition.co/p/why-im-optimistic-about-ai x-newsletter-id: https://foundersedition.co/ x-newsletter-signup: https://foundersedition.co/subscribe X-SG-EID: =?us-ascii?Q?u001=2E7ozyt+tmjDsHnEocxX8pymFA2v5OOh2V4Pdr6hGVjZo99sLHT4OeEg7as?= =?us-ascii?Q?oEFtQzIa0qAOkk1QezFA4qrCcff9558yNK8x6zQ?= =?us-ascii?Q?0aLhxDCyAuB9kgcSLas3IIKR+fvCUJBBL3rwV96?= =?us-ascii?Q?muJ=2FxrYPx=2F1NzsISSAUArEPvUyu5DoJTFB+nKB8?= =?us-ascii?Q?60vD41yo5OELVclO2TefMRvEyc=2FZKMieKQU7Bai?= =?us-ascii?Q?a2cxk64u11FXgvnzwyejZVFSnXjK1KQG+Mmh25U?= =?us-ascii?Q?vig0NXoQManHj2O0gGfOAMfxmx5HN77wIFpXoxE?= =?us-ascii?Q?hFby8DTY=3D?= X-SG-ID: =?us-ascii?Q?u001=2ESdBcvi+Evd=2FbQef8eZF3BpTL9BgbK5wfSJMJGMsmprD1ZcmFObA4po1bG?= =?us-ascii?Q?aUE6gycJ+LfRoc8X0Wm0MSorFVcoWHrIixZYD9z?= =?us-ascii?Q?w25Z143eglkAJWbQrLxndYtch6lhNuMZnDbc9jZ?= =?us-ascii?Q?Ig++aTU=2F3ZZON9dgiu96Y7ItXvlXa5eiOZNkCtM?= =?us-ascii?Q?J3Pl553QqF00N6oUbAuO9dkEqbFNk2gw2TMlFG=2F?= =?us-ascii?Q?rL=2FXCa9XS4TvhudKedLSQ3JHAwk5qPWGZQOzdoA?= =?us-ascii?Q?CZebLF0D6TRr127wQF6pD21r97XxXXV=2FYfb6lH5?= =?us-ascii?Q?h6zfsZM7LTVmL583wc6bQ4yldf41jTHM4lclCzb?= =?us-ascii?Q?iX=2Fxay=2F5SdmL83LVyW=2FayLsDZXcuJuJxY=3D?= To: "andrew@sterlingcal.com" X-Entity-ID: u001.RuZ2+X9IBGtjUb8qq3teHQ== X-Spam-Status: No, score=-1.6 X-Spam-Score: -15 X-Spam-Bar: - X-Spam-Flag: NO --20515fe21df964f4a6b0df53bf85dded909eef3bf1130e68c4faa34d45fb Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8 Mime-Version: 1.0 Hello Andrew,=20 **_Book update_**_: I promised to record an audiobook with my own voice and= am taking, hopefully, a few days next week to record it. Wish me luck. It = also means that I won=E2=80=99t have time for a traditional newsletter so I= =E2=80=99m thinking of sharing an excerpt from the book. Did you know you c= an _[_pre-order_](https://www.amazon.com/Terrifying-Art-Finding-Customers-S= leep-Deprived/dp/1774586134)_ it _=F0=9F=99=82?_ (=E2=86=90 yes, this is m= e begging)._ A few weeks ago I shared my insight that [AI is coming for the schlep](http= s://foundersedition.co/p/ai-will-replace-the-schlep-not-jobs) - the tedious= , repetitive work that drains our energy without adding real value. This we= ek, I dove deeper into this theme by listening to three fascinating convers= ations: one with Jason Calacanis on job displacement fears, another with Sa= tya Nadella on AI's role as an empowerment tool, and a revealing discussion= with Sam Altman about OpenAI's mission and the future of human-AI collabor= ation. The contrast was striking - and illuminating. Change is coming and some of = it will be painful, but I remain optimistic. Here's why. **tl;dr** * AI will replace the tedious, repetitive parts of jobs (the "schlep") rath= er than entire careers * This will create short-term chaos but history shows that technology leads= to long-term job growth.=C2=A0 * New opportunities will emerge in human-AI collaboration, personalized ser= vices that become economically viable, and entirely new categories of work = we can't yet imagine ## The Fear vs. The Reality [**Jason**](https://thisweekinstartups.com/episodes/Ek3bOgTPngL)** **raises= legitimate concerns about the adjustment period: He predicts Amazon will c= ut roughly 5% of its workforce annually over five years (totalling a 35% re= duction), warns that youth unemployment could hit dangerous thresholds, and= suggests social unrest becomes a real risk when joblessness crosses 20%. H= is prediction aligns with Amazon CEO Andy Jassy's recent memo stating the c= ompany's "total corporate workforce" will shrink as it adopts AI tools and = employees learn to "get more done with scrappier teams." These aren't abstr= act fears - they're grounded in actual company announcements about how AI w= ill reshape employment. **But here's what the data actually shows:** The McKinsey Global Institute'= s comprehensive [2017 analysis](https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/= future-of-work/jobs-lost-jobs-gained-what-the-future-of-work-will-mean-for-= jobs-skills-and-wages#/) of 46 countries (which notably predates the recent= LLM advances) reveals that while 75-375 million workers globally may need = to switch occupational categories by 2030, the economy will likely create 5= 55-890 million new jobs through seven key trends - from aging populations n= eeding care to infrastructure investment to the marketization of currently = unpaid work. [**Altman**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DV979Wd1gmTU)** **reinforces = this optimism: "This is the best time ever in the history of technology eve= r period to start a company," he argues. The technological ground is shifti= ng so dramatically that it creates unprecedented opportunities for those wi= lling to build on the new foundation. As he puts it, when the clock cycle o= f the industry changes this much, "startups almost always win" because they= can iterate faster and at lower cost than established players. **The historical pattern is clear:** Technology has consistently created mo= re jobs than it destroyed. Personal computers alone generated 15.8 million = net new jobs since 1980 - and 90% of those jobs were outside the tech secto= r itself. As McKinsey documented in December of 2017: "The growth of computers has ge= nerated significant employment: in the United States, we estimate that comp= uters have enabled the net creation of 15.8 million jobs since 1970. We arr= ive at this figure by tallying employment gains and losses in different sec= tors and occupations. We find that in total, we can identify 3.5 million jo= bs destroyed by the introduction of computers, including those in typewrite= r manufacturing, secretarial work, and bookkeeping. But at least 19.3 milli= on were created in a wide range of occupations and industries." _And that was before ChatGPT changed everything._ ## The Chaos =3D Opportunity Equation But here's where Calacanis gets it exactly right: **chaos creates opportuni= ties for founders.** Think of disruptive technologies like kids jumping around in a McDonald's b= all pit. The ball pit is the market. The movement of the balls represents m= arkets, customer needs, and opportunities being created as gaps open up eve= rywhere. When AI displaces workers and reshuffles entire industries, it doesn't just= create problems - it creates massive arbitrage opportunities. As Calacanis= puts it: "If there were 10,000 DoorDashers available to do something else,= what would you have them do?" His answer - democratizing personal services like chefs, eldercare, and edu= cation - points to entirely new business models that become economically vi= able when you have a surplus of capable workers combined with AI-driven eff= iciency. **Altman adds a crucial insight:** There's currently a massive "product ove= rhang" where AI capabilities far exceed what entrepreneurs have figured out= how to build with them. "The products that people have figured out to buil= d is way down here" compared to what's technically possible. This gap repre= sents enormous opportunity for founders who can bridge the divide between w= hat AI can do and what people actually need. ## The Four Pillars of Future Work From these conversations, four clear themes emerge: ### **1 - Elevation, Not Elimination** Software engineers won't disappear - they'll become software architects, ma= naging AI agents and ensuring system quality. The typist pools of the 1980s= didn't vanish; instead, all eight billion of us became typists while secre= taries evolved into administrative coordinators handling complex strategic = work. Altman sees this happening already: "For a long time ChatGPT was like a Goo= gle replacement... but now you start to see things where you can like reall= y give a task to code interpreter... and you have this thing go off and do = a bunch of stuff and come back to you with like a proposal." ### **2 - The Schlep Arbitrage Opportunity** This is where the ball pit gets interesting. When AI eliminates the schlep = from existing jobs, it doesn't just free up workers - it frees up economic = capacity. Services that were too expensive or logistically complex become v= iable. A community cook serving 10 families. Personal trainers for the midd= le class. Elder companions watching TV and organizing cooking classes. The gaps in the market become visible when the balls start moving. ### **3 - Just-in-Time Software and Interfaces** Altman describes a future where you won't need traditional SaaS application= s: "You have your underlying database, you have an API layer... and then th= e interface is the LLM." Complex workflows will be generated on-demand, cre= ating "just in time software" that codes artifacts and interfaces as you ne= ed them. This doesn't eliminate software companies - it transforms them. The winners= will be those who understand that defensibility comes from data, relations= hips, and domain expertise, not just software features.=20 ### **4 - Change Management as the Real Challenge** [Nadella](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DAUUZuzVHKdo&t=3D1040s) identifi= es the actual bottleneck: "You're taking the means of production in every c= ompany and saying we're going to change everything about how we work." The = technology exists. The hard part is organizational transformation - redesig= ning workflows, redefining roles, and helping people adapt. As Altman notes about hiring, the focus should be on people who are "really= smart, driven, curious, self-motivated, hardworking" with a "good track re= cord of accomplishment" rather than traditional credentials. The future bel= ongs to those who can "hire for slope not y-intercept." ## The One-Person Leverage Revolution Perhaps Altman's most compelling insight: "One of the things that will feel= most different about these next 10 years versus these last 10 years is how= much a single person or a small group of people with a lot of agency can g= et done." This isn't just about productivity gains. Because "coordination costs are h= uge," when we empower individuals with AI tools, "we won't just see like a = little bit more stuff get built but... a real step change" in what's possib= le. We're not just building better tools - we're fundamentally changing the lev= erage available to human creativity and ambition. ## Why I Remain Optimistic Through the Chaos Despite all the uncertainty and disruption ahead, I remain deeply optimisti= c that this transformation will be a net positive for humanity. Yes, I agre= e with both Calacanis and McKinsey that there will be an adjustment period = - potentially a difficult one for many people. Calacanis' warnings about yo= uth unemployment hitting dangerous thresholds and the risk of social unrest= when joblessness crosses 20% are sobering reminders that the transition wo= n't be smooth or painless. The human cost of these transitions is real and = shouldn't be minimized. But I keep thinking about my Papa Bob, who was a truck driver for most of h= is working life. It was hard, dangerous, and frankly underpaid work for the= type of physical and mental demands it required. Hours alone on the road, = constant vigilance, wear and tear on his body, time away from family. If au= tonomous semi-trucks had existed 30 years ago and displaced him from that j= ob, I wonder how he would have spent his productive time instead. I like to think he would have found some very interesting things to work on= . Papa Bob was curious, resourceful, and had a way of fixing things that se= emed broken to everyone else. Maybe he would have turned one of his many ho= bbies into a career. Maybe he would have started a small business using his= deep knowledge of logistics and supply chains. Maybe he would have had mor= e time to spend with his grandchildren, passing on skills and wisdom that c= an't be automated. The point isn't that the transition would have been easy - it wouldn't have= been. But Papa Bob, like most people, had talents and interests that exten= ded far beyond what his job required him to use. The tragedy of many jobs i= sn't just that they're dangerous or poorly paid, but that they only tap int= o a fraction of human potential. ## The Bottom Line The fear that AI will eliminate human work misses the fundamental point. Ev= ery major technological revolution has followed the same pattern: eliminate= the mundane, elevate the meaningful, create new possibilities we couldn't = imagine before. AI won't replace jobs. It will replace the parts of jobs that humans never = wanted to do in the first place - and free up human capacity for work that'= s more interesting, more creative, and more aligned with what people actual= ly want to contribute to the world. And for founders paying attention to the chaos? As Altman emphasizes, this = is your moment. The balls are moving fast in the pit right now. The questio= n isn't whether there will be enough work for humans. The question is wheth= er you'll be thoughtful enough to spot the gaps opening up and build someth= ing valuable in the space that emerges. As he puts it: "There is so much more space to go after" beyond what OpenAI= is building. The product overhang is real, the opportunities are massive, = and "this is the best time ever in the history of technology ever period to= start a company." The future belongs to those with the conviction to build it - and the wisdo= m to build it in service of human flourishing. _What parts of your work would you gladly hand over to an AI agent tomorrow= ? Hit reply and let me know - I read every response and this helps me under= stand how these changes are playing out in real companies._ Collin=20 **PS**- If you missed last week's newsletter where I shared the VC & PE lis= t, you can [check it out here](https://foundersedition.co/p/vc-list-with-ca= tegories). And if you're finding value in these insights, I'd appreciate it= if you shared this with a colleague who's thinking about AI's impact on th= eir industry.=20 PPS - for all you keeners who read all the way to the bottom, thank you! He= re=E2=80=99s a little easter egg: I=E2=80=99m working on [the website](http= ://terrifyingart.com) for the book, any feedback?=20 =E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94 You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience,= copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://foundersedition.co/p/why-im-optimistic-about-ai --20515fe21df964f4a6b0df53bf85dded909eef3bf1130e68c4faa34d45fb Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset=utf-8 Mime-Version: 1.0 Why I=E2=80=99m optimistic about AI
<= td align=3D"center" valign=3D"top" style=3D"border-width:0px 0px 0px 0px;bo= rder-style: solid; border-color: #FFFFFF;border-radius:10px 10px 0px 0px;ba= ckground-color:#FFFFFF;" class=3D"c">
<= /tr>

June 27= , 2025   |   Read Onli= ne

Why I=E2=80=99m optimistic about AI

 
3D"share
 
3D"share
 
3D""
<= /tr><= tr>= = <= td id=3D"3-justin-time-software-and-interfac" class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" v= align=3D"top" style=3D"color:#2A2A2A;font-weight:normal;padding:0px 15px;te= xt-align:left;">

3= - Just-in-Time Software and Interfaces

= <= /tr>= =

Hello Andrew,

Book update: I promised to record an audiobook with= my own voice and am taking, hopefully, a few days next week to record it. = Wish me luck. It also means that I won=E2=80=99t have time for a traditiona= l newsletter so I=E2=80=99m thinking of sharing an excerpt from the book. D= id you know you can pre-order = it =F0=9F=99=82? (=E2= =86=90 yes, this is me begging).

A few weeks ago I shared my insight that AI = is coming for the schlep - the tedious, repetitive work that drains our energy without adding= real value. This week, I dove deeper into this theme by listening to three= fascinating conversations: one with Jason Calacanis on job displacement fe= ars, another with Satya Nadella on AI's role as an empowerment tool, an= d a revealing discussion with Sam Altman about OpenAI's mission and the= future of human-AI collaboration.

The contrast was striking - and illuminating. Change is coming = and some of it will be painful, but I remain optimistic. Here's why.

tl;dr<= /b>

  • AI will replace the tedious, repetitive p= arts of jobs (the "schlep") rather than entire careers

    =

  • This will create short-term chaos but history shows that tec= hnology leads to long-term job growth.=C2=A0

  • New o= pportunities will emerge in human-AI collaboration, personalized services t= hat become economically viable, and entirely new categories of work we can&= #39;t yet imagine

The Fear vs. The Reality

=C2=A0

But here= 9;s what the data actually shows: The McKinsey Global Institute's comprehensive 2017 analysis= of 46 countries (which notably pred= ates the recent LLM advances) reveals that while 75-375 million workers glo= bally may need to switch occupational categories by 2030, the economy will = likely create 555-890 million new jobs through seven key trends - from agin= g populations needing care to infrastructure investment to the marketizatio= n of currently unpaid work.

Altman=C2=A0reinforces this optimism: "This is the = best time ever in the history of technology ever period to start a company,= " he argues. The technological ground is shifting so dramatically that= it creates unprecedented opportunities for those willing to build on the n= ew foundation. As he puts it, when the clock cycle of the industry changes = this much, "startups almost always win" because they can iterate = faster and at lower cost than established players.

The historical pattern is cl= ear: Technology has consi= stently created more jobs than it destroyed. Personal computers alone gener= ated 15.8 million net new jobs since 1980 - and 90% of those jobs were outs= ide the tech sector itself.

As McKinsey documented in December of 2017: "The growth of compu= ters has generated significant employment: in the United States, we estimat= e that computers have enabled the net creation of 15.8 million jobs since 1= 970. We arrive at this figure by tallying employment gains and losses in di= fferent sectors and occupations. We find that in total, we can identify 3.5= million jobs destroyed by the introduction of computers, including those i= n typewriter manufacturing, secretarial work, and bookkeeping. But at least= 19.3 million were created in a wide range of occupations and industries.&q= uot;

And that was be= fore ChatGPT changed everything.

The Chaos =3D Opportunity Equation

But here's where Cala= canis gets it exactly right: chaos creates opportunities for founders.

=

Think of disruptive technologies = like kids jumping around in a McDonald's ball pit. The ball pit is the = market. The movement of the balls represents markets, customer needs, and o= pportunities being created as gaps open up everywhere.

When AI displaces workers and reshuffles en= tire industries, it doesn't just create problems - it creates massive a= rbitrage opportunities. As Calacanis puts it: "If there were 10,000 Do= orDashers available to do something else, what would you have them do?"= ;

His answer - democrat= izing personal services like chefs, eldercare, and education - points to en= tirely new business models that become economically viable when you have a = surplus of capable workers combined with AI-driven efficiency.

Altman adds a cr= ucial insight: There'= s currently a massive "product overhang" where AI capabilities fa= r exceed what entrepreneurs have figured out how to build with them. "= The products that people have figured out to build is way down here" c= ompared to what's technically possible. This gap represents enormous op= portunity for founders who can bridge the divide between what AI can do and= what people actually need.

The Four Pillars of Future Work

From these conversations, four clea= r themes emerge:

1 - Elevation, Not Elimination<= /h3>

Software engineers won't = disappear - they'll become software architects, managing AI agents and = ensuring system quality. The typist pools of the 1980s didn't vanish; i= nstead, all eight billion of us became typists while secretaries evolved in= to administrative coordinators handling complex strategic work.

<= /td>

Altman sees this happening already= : "For a long time ChatGPT was like a Google replacement... but now yo= u start to see things where you can like really give a task to code interpr= eter... and you have this thing go off and do a bunch of stuff and come bac= k to you with like a proposal."

2 - The Schlep = Arbitrage Opportunity

This is where the ball pit gets interesting. When AI eliminates the s= chlep from existing jobs, it doesn't just free up workers - it frees up= economic capacity. Services that were too expensive or logistically comple= x become viable. A community cook serving 10 families. Personal trainers fo= r the middle class. Elder companions watching TV and organizing cooking cla= sses.

The gaps in the m= arket become visible when the balls start moving.

Altman describes a future where you won't need tr= aditional SaaS applications: "You have your underlying database, you h= ave an API layer... and then the interface is the LLM." Complex workfl= ows will be generated on-demand, creating "just in time software"= that codes artifacts and interfaces as you need them.

This doesn't eliminate software compani= es - it transforms them. The winners will be those who understand that defe= nsibility comes from data, relationships, and domain expertise, not just so= ftware features.

4 - Change Management as the Real= Challenge

Nadella identifies the actual bottleneck: "You're taki= ng the means of production in every company and saying we're going to c= hange everything about how we work." The technology exists. The hard p= art is organizational transformation - redesigning workflows, redefining ro= les, and helping people adapt.

As Altman notes about hiring, the focus should be on people who are= "really smart, driven, curious, self-motivated, hardworking" wit= h a "good track record of accomplishment" rather than traditional= credentials. The future belongs to those who can "hire for slope not = y-intercept."

The One-Person Leverage Revolution

Perhaps Altman's most compelling in= sight: "One of the things that will feel most different about these ne= xt 10 years versus these last 10 years is how much a single person or a sma= ll group of people with a lot of agency can get done."

This isn't just about productivity= gains. Because "coordination costs are huge," when we empower in= dividuals with AI tools, "we won't just see like a little bit more= stuff get built but... a real step change" in what's possible.

We're not just buildi= ng better tools - we're fundamentally changing the leverage available t= o human creativity and ambition.

<= h2 style=3D"color:#2A2A2A;font-weight:normal;mso-line-height-alt:150.0%;"><= span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Why I Remain Optimistic Through the C= haos

Despite all the u= ncertainty and disruption ahead, I remain deeply optimistic that this trans= formation will be a net positive for humanity. Yes, I agree with both Calac= anis and McKinsey that there will be an adjustment period - potentially a d= ifficult one for many people. Calacanis' warnings about youth unemploym= ent hitting dangerous thresholds and the risk of social unrest when jobless= ness crosses 20% are sobering reminders that the transition won't be sm= ooth or painless. The human cost of these transitions is real and shouldn&#= 39;t be minimized.

But= I keep thinking about my Papa Bob, who was a truck driver for most of his = working life. It was hard, dangerous, and frankly underpaid work for the ty= pe of physical and mental demands it required. Hours alone on the road, con= stant vigilance, wear and tear on his body, time away from family. If auton= omous semi-trucks had existed 30 years ago and displaced him from that job,= I wonder how he would have spent his productive time instead.

I like to think he would have found= some very interesting things to work on. Papa Bob was curious, resourceful= , and had a way of fixing things that seemed broken to everyone else. Maybe= he would have turned one of his many hobbies into a career. Maybe he would= have started a small business using his deep knowledge of logistics and su= pply chains. Maybe he would have had more time to spend with his grandchild= ren, passing on skills and wisdom that can't be automated.

The point isn't that the transi= tion would have been easy - it wouldn't have been. But Papa Bob, like m= ost people, had talents and interests that extended far beyond what his job= required him to use. The tragedy of many jobs isn't just that they'= ;re dangerous or poorly paid, but that they only tap into a fraction of hum= an potential.

T= he Bottom Line

The fea= r that AI will eliminate human work misses the fundamental point. Every maj= or technological revolution has followed the same pattern: eliminate the mu= ndane, elevate the meaningful, create new possibilities we couldn't ima= gine before.

AI won= 9;t replace jobs. It will replace the parts of jobs that humans never wante= d to do in the first place - and free up human capacity for work that's= more interesting, more creative, and more aligned with what people actuall= y want to contribute to the world.

And for founders paying attention to the chaos? As Altman empha= sizes, this is your moment. The balls are moving fast in the pit right now.= The question isn't whether there will be enough work for humans. The q= uestion is whether you'll be thoughtful enough to spot the gaps opening= up and build something valuable in the space that emerges.

As he puts it: "There is so much = more space to go after" beyond what OpenAI is building. The product ov= erhang is real, the opportunities are massive, and "this is the best t= ime ever in the history of technology ever period to start a company."=

The future belongs to = those with the conviction to build it - and the wisdom to build it in servi= ce of human flourishing.

Collin

PS- If you missed last week's newsletter where I= shared the VC & PE list, you can check it out here. And if you're finding value in these insights, I'd appreciate = it if you shared this with a colleague who's thinking about AI's im= pact on their industry.

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