Return-Path: Delivered-To: andrew@sterlingcal.com Received: from reseller401.webserversystems.com by reseller401.webserversystems.com with LMTP id 6PZFDciFv2YYNAwAchKAPA (envelope-from ) for ; Fri, 16 Aug 2024 12:00:56 -0500 Return-path: Envelope-to: andrew@sterlingcal.com Delivery-date: Fri, 16 Aug 2024 12:00:56 -0500 Received: from o122.ptr5934.mail.beehiiv.com ([159.183.217.189]:3220) by reseller401.webserversystems.com with esmtps (TLS1.2) tls TLS_ECDHE_RSA_WITH_AES_128_GCM_SHA256 (Exim 4.96.2) (envelope-from ) id 1sf0Jr-003MRk-0x for andrew@sterlingcal.com; Fri, 16 Aug 2024 12:00:56 -0500 DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=mail.beehiiv.com; h=content-type:from:mime-version:subject:reply-to:list-unsubscribe: list-unsubscribe-post:to:cc:content-type:from:subject:to; s=s1; bh=jN2hOyS6MXuLwKJMZ0Rkp8irZPV5+Cd/Vkm9YatgQsA=; b=ONosV1AJ17UuBL1imikZA0wjFTFV7fLYmoBRFV6U8q4D3ELeHr/tUtl3HMYcdNXF9h1c oPEcqqTOcC32tz3Poeu6l1VYsFNioFlGtkmopAXzGiXRNmiNnMtC5xWw4kjusMAtSZ0UXk KOqbCmxiC1b5aONspQwWU7fNYMjUF77IFZWehGa5SPxlW3WPGXPAWwDZdeuctKinsA90Dp wYc3vTNrEsGEnw0gVR0HIC0WxSojK9bD9QX1oBkejI9g4vRu7m2OaFsG5UYESgdAhNsi6B L5LfBAXOVsPzTSkCfJsNVrSEfQ9nkzdMzOTCW7chkgDz6q3WElt1I1ROpXMrAF9A== Received: by recvd-857d968bdb-g2s6x with SMTP id recvd-857d968bdb-g2s6x-1-66BF85B0-26 2024-08-16 17:00:32.129545309 +0000 UTC m=+1539705.125215728 Received: from NDAyMzQxODk (unknown) by geopod-ismtpd-13 (SG) with HTTP id iRD8jaVHRzKjkQM3O3FD3w Fri, 16 Aug 2024 17:00:32.048 +0000 (UTC) Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary=852a4f1e5da303ad5cb47fd4ed99302a32daeef6d56cf33cab971b308190 Date: Fri, 16 Aug 2024 17:00:43 +0000 (UTC) From: Collin Stewart Mime-Version: 1.0 Message-ID: Subject: finding first tracks Reply-To: Collin Stewart x-beehiiv-ids: =?us-ascii?Q?{=22account=5Fname=22=3A=22https=3A=2F=2Fpredictablerevenue-newsletter=2Ebeehiiv?= =?us-ascii?Q?=2Ecom=2F=22=2C=22campaign=5Fid=22=3A=22e2841b9b-c2b8-481?= =?us-ascii?Q?8-a07e-c4f174fbee21=22=2C=22category=22=3A=22newsle?= =?us-ascii?Q?tter=22=2C=22email=5Fgenerated=5Fat=22=3A1723827631=2C=22?= =?us-ascii?Q?user=5Fid=22=3A=223c5b97ff-00a9-4acc-916d-c137b?= =?us-ascii?Q?ca24b1d=22}?= x-beehiiv-type: newsletter sId: 3c5b97ff-00a9-4acc-916d-c137bca24b1d List-Unsubscribe: =?us-ascii?Q?=3Cmailto=3A3c5b97ff-00a9-4acc-916d-c137bca24b1d+1d17dc26-c1df-44e?= =?us-ascii?Q?0-812a-883b6ad5b6bc+e2841b9b-c2b8-4818-?= =?us-ascii?Q?a07e-c4f174fbee21=40unsub=2Ebeehiiv=2Ecom=3E=2C?= =?us-ascii?Q?_=3Chttps=3A=2F=2Fpredictablerevenue-newsletter=2Ebeehiiv=2Ecom=2Funsubscribe?= =?us-ascii?Q?=2FeyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9=2Ee?= =?us-ascii?Q?yJzdWJzY3JpYmVyX2lkIjoiMWQxN2RjMjYtYzFk?= =?us-ascii?Q?Zi00NGUwLTgxMmEtODgzYjZhZDViNmJjIiwicG9?= =?us-ascii?Q?zdF9pZCI6ImUyODQxYjliLWMyYjgtNDgxOC1hMD?= =?us-ascii?Q?dlLWM0ZjE3NGZiZWUyMSIsImxhc3RfcmVzb3VyY?= =?us-ascii?Q?2VfZ3VpZCI6IlBvc3Q6ZTI4NDFiOWItYzJiOC00?= =?us-ascii?Q?ODE4LWEwN2UtYzRmMTc0ZmJlZTIxIn0=2EYPIMdEM?= =?us-ascii?Q?17sYTzv8xpxw2MNhLTWo4sYtDq0bQF8GCWlI=3E?= x-newsletter-id: https://predictablerevenue-newsletter.beehiiv.com/ List-Unsubscribe-Post: List-Unsubscribe=One-Click x-list-owner: x-newsletter: =?us-ascii?Q?https=3A=2F=2Fpredictablerevenue-newsletter=2Ebeehiiv=2Ecom=2Fp=2Ffirst-trac?= =?us-ascii?Q?ks-of-product-market-fit?= x-newsletter-signup: https://predictablerevenue-newsletter.beehiiv.com/subscribe Feedback-ID: =?us-ascii?Q?e2841b9b-c2b8-4818-a07e-c4f174fbee21=3Anewsletter=3A3c5b97ff-00a9-?= =?us-ascii?Q?4acc-916d-c137bca24b1d=3A23270855726497d?= x-list-id: 3c5b97ff-00a9-4acc-916d-c137bca24b1d X-SG-EID: =?us-ascii?Q?u001=2E7ozyt+tmjDsHnEocxX8pymFA2v5OOh2V4Pdr6hGVjZo99sLHT4OeEg7as?= =?us-ascii?Q?oEFtQzIa0qAOkk1QezFA4qrCcff9558yNK8x6zQ?= =?us-ascii?Q?0aLhxDCyAuB9kgcSLas3IIKR+fvCUJBBdxh=2F2qw?= =?us-ascii?Q?1KDoM=2FXCOw1n8bArmY0oyEKsTivZPBARrDDmGER?= =?us-ascii?Q?tNndN9MFRrLSb55Hnuh3wK=2FupzhQMWR9QaKCfVu?= =?us-ascii?Q?3cW3hmkqeyKePUnwv8ddp43VPRQ3jtu79kMLx52?= =?us-ascii?Q?=2FoUWnZDJTi04Fp7RUiMuShY1EPUCdc44Z6Y7AP7?= =?us-ascii?Q?0FfJV9Lk=3D?= X-SG-ID: =?us-ascii?Q?u001=2ESdBcvi+Evd=2FbQef8eZF3BpTL9BgbK5wfSJMJGMsmprAVgeiC8iaV7rEmQ?= =?us-ascii?Q?+cYi2k7uMsAHzHiopUwCYCGSi0VqN0Jf8teLBEp?= =?us-ascii?Q?+sTnkGS=2FSNMy=2FUb32bWiyojZWIyuI9tEPDJIowq?= =?us-ascii?Q?TKnBNrjAEVdwvzLqeO4dhMK2ap0B8ixqBdKuVxr?= =?us-ascii?Q?ZJfW48dIVqJAgCrOegBBGvtBf56cf=2F3aL6L9J7A?= =?us-ascii?Q?3OS+jwMjZPbUXiAWAUToatPslsgHMPON0VEIScs?= =?us-ascii?Q?BYqrcrTSRZ8gVqB1CXGSj8zUsg=3D=3D?= To: "andrew@sterlingcal.com" X-Entity-ID: u001.RuZ2+X9IBGtjUb8qq3teHQ== X-Spam-Status: No, score=-1.6 X-Spam-Score: -15 X-Spam-Bar: - X-Spam-Flag: NO --852a4f1e5da303ad5cb47fd4ed99302a32daeef6d56cf33cab971b308190 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8 Mime-Version: 1.0 Good morning Andrew,=20 I sat down with a newsletter subscriber, I=E2=80=99ll call him Greg because= he asked to remain anonymous, when he was in one of the hardest yet most f= un parts of his startup journey. He had found his first 30 customers and wa= s trying to decide if he should stay focused on improving the product or sw= itch his focus to revenue. Greg runs an edtech platform, they=E2=80=99re 18= months into the journey, raised $1m, and kept the team small. Their best c= ustomers are middle schools that have adapted a dedicated weekly block for = reteaching math.=20 Here=E2=80=99s the tl;dr: * Greg is looking for =E2=80=98first tracks=E2=80=99 that will lead him to = product market fit=20 * There are four different types of first tracks I=E2=80=99ve used, product= usage, referrals, customer sentiment, and feedback=20 * You=E2=80=99re ready to move to revenue when you reach the Saul Goodman l= ine (all =E2=80=9Cgood=E2=80=9D scores for each of the first track types)=20 Here=E2=80=99s the full post:=20 My first thought was to use the product market fit funnel as a measurement = but their pipeline was just getting started and the funnel showed the obvio= us, they aren=E2=80=99t there yet. It answered Greg=E2=80=99s question but = it didn=E2=80=99t help him understand what to look for, other than more dea= l volume. While I was thinking about our conversation, I listened to an epi= sode of Invest Like the Best with Boyd Varty talking about the art of track= ing. As I listened, I couldn=E2=80=99t help but think of Greg=E2=80=99s sit= uation. He was pursuing something interesting, he hadn=E2=80=99t found the = trail yet, and needed to find the signs that there might be a track here. B= oyd talked about finding the first tracks that you need to string together = in order to find the trail. When you=E2=80=99re first learning to track, yo= u don=E2=80=99t know what the first tracks looks like because you don=E2=80= =99t know the characteristics of the terrain. Eventually, you train yoursel= f to see the path forward, developing what he calls track awareness. Someth= ing clicked for me, Greg didn=E2=80=99t need advice on how to follow the pa= th, he needed something to help him find the track. He was looking for firs= t tracks.=20 Finding product-market fit isn't a straightforward path. Everyone=E2=80=99s= route to the path will look different but the first tracks, the signals th= at there=E2=80=99s something exciting just up ahead, will be similar. Here = are three sets of first tracks I=E2=80=99ve used in the past:=20 **Product usage ** Good =3D everyone who=E2=80=99s paying for it is still using it Great =3D Net-negative churn - any revenue contraction covered and more by = expansion from current accounts Bad =3D >20% annual churn=20 **Referrals ** Good =3D any number of referrals to customers that close=20 Great =3D 10% of active customers have sent at least one referral=20 Could Be Bad* =3D no referrals=20 _*Could be bad because some industries & customer segments just aren=E2=80= =99t conducive to referrals. _ **Customer Sentiment, or the =E2=80=9Chow would you feel if this product di= dn=E2=80=99t exist anymore=E2=80=9D question** Great =3D Very disappointed Good =3D Somewhat disappointed Bad =3D Not disappointed (it isn=E2=80=99t really that useful) Real Bad =3D N/A =E2=80=93 I no longer use the product All Great=E2=80=99s are not created equally. The Customer Sentiment =E2=80= =9CGreat=E2=80=9D is a bit soft because it is the most subjective of the th= ree and therefore the easiest to trick yourself with. In my experience, whe= n customers say they are happy but aren=E2=80=99t buying more or sending re= ferrals, it=E2=80=99s a sign they aren=E2=80=99t happy and don=E2=80=99t wa= nt to share their feedback. In those situations, I had earned their lack of= trust by demonstrating that all I cared about was our vision and not their= pain. I needed to build trust by showing vulnerability and demonstrating t= hat I was receptive to feedback before I could get them to open up with the= ir real feedback.=20 Feedback quality is a fourth gauge you can use but it=E2=80=99s even more s= ubjective than customer sentiment. When I=E2=80=99m building something new,= I like to have weekly check-ins with all of my customers, moving to monthl= y when we cross over the 10 mark. I have three priorities in these meetings= , to ensure everyone is able to use the product, build our relationship by = providing any coaching they might need, and get feedback on what parts of o= ur product need to be improved. The first two goals ensure that the custome= r is able to use and get value out of the product and the last one tells me= how they=E2=80=99re really feeling about our product. It=E2=80=99s actuall= y the timescale of the feedback that tells me the most.=20 Great =3D feedback and product ideas that could help them build this into t= heir workflow=20 Good =3D feedback on bugs that are driving them crazy right now=20 Bad =3D no feedback or ideas for things that are not aligned with your visi= on/roadmap.=20 Feedback on bugs sounds bad but it=E2=80=99s a sign that they care enough a= bout your solution that they are mad that it doesn=E2=80=99t work better. Y= ou definitely have work to do but your users care and that=E2=80=99s the mo= st important thing. No feedback or misaligned feedback is an indication tha= t your users either don=E2=80=99t care or don=E2=80=99t want to solve the p= roblem in the same way you do. It might be bad or it could be a miscommunic= ation, either way, it=E2=80=99s valuable to understand why. Feedback on thi= ngs you could do in the future or things that they would need to integrate = your product more deeply into their process are the best kinds of feedback.= They show that your customer has accepted your product into their life and= are thinking long-term about your relationship.=20 When you=E2=80=99re collecting feedback, don=E2=80=99t forget about your cu= stomer development question framework. Most importantly, =E2=80=9Chow impor= tant is this to you=E2=80=9D and =E2=80=9Chow satisfied with how your curre= ntly solving it=E2=80=9D, the combination of the two will help you sort and= prioritize feedback. It=E2=80=99s also good to follow up their feedback wi= th additional questions to help you understand the impact it will have on t= hem. Sometimes the feedback will be for small quality of life improvements = but some feedback can open up entire new markets for you that you haven=E2= =80=99t seen.=20 So, what should Greg do?=20 Let=E2=80=99s get the obvious scenarios out of the way first. If everything= is Great, he should focus on revenue. If everything is Bad, he should focu= s on improving the product. The minimum bar to switch focus from Product to= Revenue reminds me of Breaking Bad=E2=80=99s character Saul Goodman - a ri= ff on =E2=80=9Cit=E2=80=99s all good man=E2=80=9D. While he could switch hi= s focus at this stage, focusing on Product until he has at least one Great = under his belt will make everything easier when they switch to Revenue. So,= if you=E2=80=99re sitting on the Saul Goodman line ask yourself: Do you wa= nt to shift to Revenue now, even though it may be harder to find customers?= Or can you afford to be patient and invest in finding something Great?=20 Any advice for Greg that I missed? If you have something for him that you= =E2=80=99d like to share, I=E2=80=99d be happy to pass it along.=20 Collin=20 PS - here=E2=80=99s [a link](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4qaiMrOhjTn28= 1VnTDYIfV?si=3D292d547a4c364cb9&nd=3D1&dlsi=3D603ceb0671724741) to the Inve= st Like the Best episode I mentioned above PPS - I=E2=80=99m going to test out running =E2=80=98free ads=E2=80=99 in m= y PS for the next few weeks. They=E2=80=99re free because nobody=E2=80=99s = paying me to do so. My goal is to highlight a subscriber from this communit= y that might need a little boost. My initial focus is going to be on compan= ies under $1m that might have something that could help the community. If y= ou=E2=80=99re interested, send me a little about your team, product, and wh= y you could use a boost.=20 PPPS - here=E2=80=99s the first =E2=80=98free ad=E2=80=99 - Speedsense is a= web performance service that helps companies increase revenue by decreasin= g their websites load times. Check out how [they helped Arc=E2=80=99teryx](= https://www.speedsense.com/case-studies/arcteryx) here. If you talk to Shaw= n, tell him Collin says hello.=20 =E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94 You are reading a plain text version of this post. For the best experience,= copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online: https://predictablerevenue-newsletter.beehiiv.com/p/first-tracks-of-product= -market-fit --852a4f1e5da303ad5cb47fd4ed99302a32daeef6d56cf33cab971b308190 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Type: text/html; charset=utf-8 Mime-Version: 1.0 finding first tracks
<= td align=3D"center" valign=3D"top" style=3D"border:0px solid #FFFFFF;border= -radius:10px;background-color:#FFFFFF;" class=3D"c">
<= tr>

August 16, 2024   |   Read Online

finding first tracks

3D"fb" 3D"fb" 3D"fb" = 3D"fb"
<= div style=3D"height:1px;" data-open-tracking=3D"true"> 3D""
<= /tr><= /tr>

Good morning Andrew,

I sat down wi= th a newsletter subscriber, I=E2=80=99ll call him Greg because he asked to = remain anonymous, when he was in one of the hardest yet most fun parts of h= is startup journey. He had found his first 30 customers and was trying to d= ecide if he should stay focused on improving the product or switch his focu= s to revenue. Greg runs an edtech platform, they=E2=80=99re 18 months into = the journey, raised $1m, and kept the team small. Their best customers are = middle schools that have adapted a dedicated weekly block for reteaching ma= th.

<= span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Here=E2=80=99s the tl;dr:

<= /td>

  • Greg is looking for =E2=80=98first tracks=E2=80=99 that will lead him= to product market fit

  • There are four different types of first tracks I=E2= =80=99ve used, product usage, referrals, customer sentiment, and feedback <= /span>

  • Yo= u=E2=80=99re ready to move to revenue when you reach the Saul Goodman line = (all =E2=80=9Cgood=E2=80=9D scores for each of the first track types)

Here=E2=80=99s the full post= :

My first thought was to use the product= market fit funnel as a measurement but their pipeline was just getting sta= rted and the funnel showed the obvious, they aren=E2=80=99t there yet. It a= nswered Greg=E2=80=99s question but it didn=E2=80=99t help him understand w= hat to look for, other than more deal volume. While I was thinking about ou= r conversation, I listened to an episode of Invest Like the Best with Boyd = Varty talking about the art of tracking. As I listened, I couldn=E2=80=99t = help but think of Greg=E2=80=99s situation. He was pursuing something inter= esting, he hadn=E2=80=99t found the trail yet, and needed to find the signs= that there might be a track here. Boyd talked about finding the first trac= ks that you need to string together in order to find the trail. When you=E2= =80=99re first learning to track, you don=E2=80=99t know what the first tra= cks looks like because you don=E2=80=99t know the characteristics of the te= rrain. Eventually, you train yourself to see the path forward, developing w= hat he calls track awareness. Something clicked for me, Greg didn=E2=80=99t= need advice on how to follow the path, he needed something to help him fin= d the track. He was looking for first tracks.

Finding product-market fit isn't a straightforward path. Everyone= =E2=80=99s route to the path will look different but the first tracks, the = signals that there=E2=80=99s something exciting just up ahead, will be simi= lar. Here are three sets of first tracks I=E2=80=99ve used in the past:

Product usage
Good =3D everyone who=E2=80=99s paying for it i= s still using it
Great =3D= Net-negative churn - any revenue contraction covered and more by expansion= from current accounts
Bad= =3D >20% annual churn

Referrals =
Good =3D any number o= f referrals to customers that close
Great =3D 10% of active customers have sent at least one referra= l
Could Be Bad* =3D no re= ferrals

*Could be bad because some ind= ustries & customer segments just aren=E2=80=99t conducive to referrals.

Customer Sentiment, or the =E2=80=9Ch= ow would you feel if this product didn=E2=80=99t exist anymore=E2=80=9D que= stion
Great =3D Very d= isappointed
Good =3D Somew= hat disappointed
Bad =3D N= ot disappointed (it isn=E2=80=99t really that useful)
Real Bad =3D N/A =E2=80=93 I no longer use the = product

All Great=E2=80=99s are not create= d equally. The Customer Sentiment =E2=80=9CGreat=E2=80=9D is a bit soft bec= ause it is the most subjective of the three and therefore the easiest to tr= ick yourself with. In my experience, when customers say they are happy but = aren=E2=80=99t buying more or sending referrals, it=E2=80=99s a sign they a= ren=E2=80=99t happy and don=E2=80=99t want to share their feedback. In thos= e situations, I had earned their lack of trust by demonstrating that all I = cared about was our vision and not their pain. I needed to build trust by s= howing vulnerability and demonstrating that I was receptive to feedback bef= ore I could get them to open up with their real feedback.

Feedback quality is a fourth gauge you can use but it=E2= =80=99s even more subjective than customer sentiment. When I=E2=80=99m buil= ding something new, I like to have weekly check-ins with all of my customer= s, moving to monthly when we cross over the 10 mark. I have three prioritie= s in these meetings, to ensure everyone is able to use the product, build o= ur relationship by providing any coaching they might need, and get feedback= on what parts of our product need to be improved. The first two goals ensu= re that the customer is able to use and get value out of the product and th= e last one tells me how they=E2=80=99re really feeling about our product. I= t=E2=80=99s actually the timescale of the feedback that tells me the most. =

Great =3D feedback and product ideas that= could help them build this into their workflow
Good =3D feedback on bugs that are driving them craz= y right now
Bad =3D no fe= edback or ideas for things that are not aligned with your vision/roadmap. <= /span>

Feedback on bugs sounds bad but it=E2=80= =99s a sign that they care enough about your solution that they are mad tha= t it doesn=E2=80=99t work better. You definitely have work to do but your u= sers care and that=E2=80=99s the most important thing. No feedback or misal= igned feedback is an indication that your users either don=E2=80=99t care o= r don=E2=80=99t want to solve the problem in the same way you do. It might = be bad or it could be a miscommunication, either way, it=E2=80=99s valuable= to understand why. Feedback on things you could do in the future or things= that they would need to integrate your product more deeply into their proc= ess are the best kinds of feedback. They show that your customer has accept= ed your product into their life and are thinking long-term about your relat= ionship.

When you=E2=80=99re collecting f= eedback, don=E2=80=99t forget about your customer development question fram= ework. Most importantly, =E2=80=9Chow important is this to you=E2=80=9D and= =E2=80=9Chow satisfied with how your currently solving it=E2=80=9D, the co= mbination of the two will help you sort and prioritize feedback. It=E2=80= =99s also good to follow up their feedback with additional questions to hel= p you understand the impact it will have on them. Sometimes the feedback wi= ll be for small quality of life improvements but some feedback can open up = entire new markets for you that you haven=E2=80=99t seen.

So, what should Greg do?

Let=E2=80=99s get the obvious scenarios out of the way first. If everythin= g is Great, he should focus on revenue. If everything is Bad, he should foc= us on improving the product. The minimum bar to switch focus from Product t= o Revenue reminds me of Breaking Bad=E2=80=99s character Saul Goodman - a r= iff on =E2=80=9Cit=E2=80=99s all good man=E2=80=9D. While he could switch h= is focus at this stage, focusing on Product until he has at least one Great= under his belt will make everything easier when they switch to Revenue. So= , if you=E2=80=99re sitting on the Saul Goodman line ask yourself: Do you w= ant to shift to Revenue now, even though it may be harder to find customers= ? Or can you afford to be patient and invest in finding something Great?

Any advice for Greg that I missed? If you h= ave something for him that you=E2=80=99d like to share, I=E2=80=99d be happ= y to pass it along.

Collin

PS - here=E2=80=99s a link<= /span> to the Invest Like the Best e= pisode I mentioned above

PPS - I=E2=80=99m= going to test out running =E2=80=98free ads=E2=80=99 in my PS for the next= few weeks. They=E2=80=99re free because nobody=E2=80=99s paying me to do s= o. My goal is to highlight a subscriber from this community that might need= a little boost. My initial focus is going to be on companies under $1m tha= t might have something that could help the community. If you=E2=80=99re int= erested, send me a little about your team, product, and why you could use a= boost.

PPPS - here=E2=80=99s the first = =E2=80=98free ad=E2=80=99 - Speedsense is a web performance service that he= lps companies increase revenue by decreasing their websites load times. Che= ck out how they helped Arc=E2=80=99teryx here. If you talk to Sh= awn, tell him Collin says hello.

=
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