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Subject: Chapter 2: measuring product market fit
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Good morning Andrew,=20

Thanks to everyone who replied last week, the overwhelming votes were for q=
uantifying product market fit so I skipped right to Chapter 2. This one is =
also long because it=E2=80=99s the bones of the chapter, there will be more=
 added and there is still a bunch of cleaning up to do.=20

Here=E2=80=99s my ask, what are 3 things that you like and 3 things you=E2=
=80=99d change?=20

tl;dr:=20

* Product Market Fit Strength can be measured=20

* I use a funnel and track the conversion rate & time

* The four stages are Acquisition, Activation, Retention, and Referral=20

* The formula is =3D Referral Rate x (1/number of days) x 1000=C2=A0

Thanks for your support, here=E2=80=99s Chapter 2: Measuring Product Market=
 Fit.

Collin=20

=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=
=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=
=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=
=E2=80=94=E2=80=94

In a previous email I introduced the idea that Product Market Fit Strength =
is a measure of the pull of the market, similar to measuring the strength o=
f a magnet. In this email, I=E2=80=99ll share my method for quantifying pro=
duct market fit strength. I=E2=80=99m a salesperson at heart so it=E2=80=99=
ll be no surprise to anyone that I used a funnel. Before I get into the sta=
ges of the funnel, I think it=E2=80=99s important to address where and when=
 we=E2=80=99re going to use this funnel. I use it as a =E2=80=98meta funnel=
=E2=80=99 that measures the strength of PMF across a number of markets, seg=
ments, personas, etc=E2=80=A6 It gives me a somewhat objective measurement =
of the relative strength of each variable.=C2=A0

**The funnel.**
I started using this funnel to track my customer development process when I=
 was struggling to articulate why one segment felt better than another. We =
only had subjective data, collected from our interviews, and found that our=
 personal opinions were working their way into the conversations as facts. =
I had already tracked every person I talk to in a big CRM-like sheet so it =
wasn=E2=80=99t too hard to add in a few extra columns. The hardest part was=
 filling it out (thanks Vanessa!) and keeping it up to date. Here are the s=
tages:=C2=A0

**Acquisition** - when we tell them about it, are people excited to try it?
**Activation** - do they actually sign up/pay/follow through on your CTA?**=
Retention** - when they sign up, do they keep using the product?
**Referral** - if they use it, was it so great that they tell their friends=
?

Great products that serve a large market with unmet needs tend to be so exc=
iting that the people you encounter feel a need to tell everyone they know.=
 When I first started interviewing people for [Carb.io](https://Carb.io) (s=
omething that did quite well), people would stop me part way through an int=
erview and breathlessly ask, =E2=80=9Cwait! Are you working on solving this=
?!=E2=80=9D I could feel their excitement that finally the painful experien=
ce of not having a tool for X would be over.=C2=A0

Tracking the referrals you get from each customer is a great proxy measurem=
ent for excitement. It=E2=80=99s objective and reinforces something you sho=
uld be focusing on, making people so happy they tell their friends. I mostl=
y cared about two numbers, the percentage of people we talked to that refer=
red us to another user and how long it took to go from first conversation t=
o first referral.=C2=A0

**Interviews =E2=80=94> Referrals =E2=80=94> Customers.**
Some of you may have noticed that these are Dave McClure=E2=80=99s Pirate M=
etrics minus Revenue. I intentionally left Revenue out because I start meas=
uring these stats when I=E2=80=99m pre-revenue and usually pre-product. Thi=
s is not a perfect model because there are some problem spaces where referr=
als are not natural or allowed. If this is the case for you, then revenue i=
s a fine proxy.=C2=A0

What we=E2=80=99re trying to capture by measuring the referral ratio is the=
 % of your users that think your product is so great that they have to tell=
 their friends. The reason this is the primary focus is that the people you=
 run your customer development interviews with should be your first custome=
rs. Your next customers are very likely to come from referrals from your fi=
rst customers. If I=E2=80=99m not able to walk someone from first conversat=
ion to referral it is a strong indication that growth will be challenging. =
It doesn=E2=80=99t mean I don=E2=80=99t have a product or a market to sell =
it to, it=E2=80=99s just that the market isn=E2=80=99t pulling my product f=
rom me very strongly. I=E2=80=99m trying to measure that pull.=C2=A0

It=E2=80=99s important to tag your users by different variables when you=E2=
=80=99re exploring. With Athlon, we had 15 characteristics that we tracked =
under the user profile, 10 for the reason they exercised, and 1 ICP/Persona=
 category. When you can filter your funnel by different variables, it can h=
elp you identify trends that you might miss when looking at the broader aud=
ience. When we first started working on Athlon, we thought we=E2=80=99d foc=
us on semi-pro athletes but we also interviewed some random friends of ours=
 just to build a wide sample. After the interviews, it was clear that semi-=
pro athletes weren=E2=80=99t interested, I didn=E2=80=99t need a fancy spre=
adsheet to figure that out, they straight up told me.=C2=A0

When we looked at the data, it was pretty mediocre. What was interesting, w=
as that there was a cohort of folks that, when we filtered by only their da=
ta, had really high scores. It was a cohort of folks that used to play spor=
ts or work out 4-5 times a week but were struggling to regain the habit aft=
er having kids. Many of them were exercising because they wanted to get bac=
k to a previously lower weight. I belonged to this group but it was my budd=
y Karl, who also belonged to the cohort, that gave it the name =E2=80=9Cfat=
 dads=E2=80=9D. It started out as a bit of a joke but the data backed up th=
at it was a pretty interesting niche.=C2=A0

A low referral rate does not necessarily mean you do not have product marke=
t fit and won=E2=80=99t be able to build a business on top of it. It means =
that your go to market investments won=E2=80=99t go as far.=C2=A0

**Athlon, a recent example.**
Athlon is the most recent startup that I tried to validate and I interviewe=
d ~47 people. No matter where I am in my product development stage, I alway=
s end every customer development interview by asking if, when it=E2=80=99s =
ready, they=E2=80=99d be interested in trying it out. It doesn=E2=80=99t ha=
ve to be a =E2=80=9Cwill you pay for it=E2=80=9D conversation, just a casua=
l ask if they=E2=80=99d try it. Especially in the early days. As the produc=
t becomes usable, I=E2=80=99ll start to ask for some money in exchange for =
using it but usually at a 95% discount. The goal isn=E2=80=99t to get rich =
but to see if people will give you some cash to try the shitty first versio=
n.

Here are my customer development interview stats for Athlon:=C2=A0

**Total conversations - 47=C2=A0**
Conversations are Stage zero in my funnel. Everyone I talk to starts here. =
If the meet the entry criteria of the next stage, they get moved down. If y=
ou follow this model, make sure you and everyone you=E2=80=99re working wit=
h are using the stages in the same way.=C2=A0

**Acquisition - 38 (80%)=C2=A0**
Step one in my customer development funnel is Acquisition, when I ask peopl=
e if they want to try the thing, do they say yes? For Athlon, the last prod=
uct I tested with this method, roughly 80% said yes. What I learned from th=
e 20% was that most of them belonged to an ICP that didn=E2=80=99t care abo=
ut the problem we wanted to solve.=C2=A0

**Activation - 26 (68%)**
My next move was to call their bluff, let=E2=80=99s call this Activation. F=
or the 38 people that said they=E2=80=99d be interested in checking it out,=
 I sent them an invite to try the platform. This is where the rubber met th=
e road because it is much easier to say yes to a hypothetical offer than a =
real one. For Athlon, the numbers weren=E2=80=99t so great, in my opinion, =
and only 26 people actually clicked the link and signed up.=C2=A0

**Retention - 10 (38%)=C2=A0**
Once people were live on the platform, I wanted to see how many actually co=
ntinued to use the product. This is where we ran into trouble. We ended up =
retaining 38%. It was an indication that our product wasn=E2=80=99t amazing=
 yet, which we knew because it was super early. As people exited the funnel=
, I would reach out to book interviews with them so I could understand why =
they dropped off.=C2=A0

**Referral - 9 (90%)=C2=A0**
The thing that surprised me the most was the referrals. Of the 10 people th=
at ended up using the platform, almost all of them referred at least one ad=
ditional user that signed up. This was a really strong indication that we h=
ad found something interesting.=C2=A0

While we did find that people had the pain we thought existed, we couldn=E2=
=80=99t find a way to create a real business around it. The users were cons=
umers but we wanted to pursue a B2B model selling to employers and couldn=
=E2=80=99t find a good way in. Our team of 3 ended up running out of steam =
and we went our separate ways. There=E2=80=99s probably still an opportunit=
y here, we just weren=E2=80=99t able to make progress on it given the time =
and resource constraints we had.=C2=A0

**The Funnel.**
At least you can learn from our experience, here=E2=80=99s what our final f=
unnel metrics looked like:=C2=A0

Total conversations - 47=C2=A0
Acquisition - 38 (80%)=C2=A0
Activation - 26 (68%)
Retention - 10 (38%)=C2=A0
Referral - 9 (90%)=C2=A0

We tracked it all in a big spreadsheet called [SHARED: External Interviews]=
(https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I9_sbgz675TIEjd9RfGXxxzGS-WlL20JH_=
FUcZVU3hw/edit#gid=3D0).=C2=A0

Our total funnel efficiency was 9 / 47 or 19% from conversation to referral=
, which in hindsight is pretty strong. It took us an average of 30 days to =
move someone from Conversation to Referral which wasn=E2=80=99t as great.=
=C2=A0

Your numbers will be different and that=E2=80=99s ok. The reason to represe=
nt this as a funnel is it tells you where you need to focus if you want to =
make things better. For Athlon, I could see that we were losing most of our=
 customers at the retention stage. That told me that while we had something=
 interesting, our tool needed to be better if we wanted users to onboard un=
assisted.=C2=A0

**The Formula.**
Sometimes the market just pulls the product out of you. In these situations=
, the conversion rate to referral doesn=E2=80=99t accurately represent the =
full strength of your product market fit and you need to add a time variabl=
e into the mix. A funnel that converts to referral in 7 days is significant=
ly better than one that takes 30 days to accomplish the same feat. Here is =
the formula I=E2=80=99ve used to calculate my Product Market Fit Strength:

PMF-S =3D Conversation to Referral Rate x (1/Time) x 1000=C2=A0

*_Time =3D number of days from Conversation to Referral_

If I compare the scores of Athlon, the startup we worked on for 14 months a=
nd never made any revenue, with [Carb.io](https://Carb.io), our startup tha=
t scaled $0 - $1m in a few months, it=E2=80=99s pretty clear that one is be=
tter than another.=C2=A0

Athlon Strength of PMF =3D 0.19 x 0.033 x 1000 =3D 6.27

Carb Strength of PMF =3D 0.40 x 0.14 x 1000 =3D 56=C2=A0

These scores are snapshots from a specific time period, they=E2=80=99re onl=
y useful as a way of comparing against one another. This is just a proxy I =
use when I=E2=80=99m comparing projects that I=E2=80=99m considering. Be ca=
reful when you compare your score to someone else=E2=80=99s. If there=E2=80=
=99s one thing I=E2=80=99ve learned from helping fix sales teams it=E2=80=
=99s that everyone uses their stage definitions a little differently.=C2=A0

**The End + CTA.**
Wow, you made it, congrats and thank you. I know some of those sections are=
 still super rough.

What are 3 things you=E2=80=99d keep and 3 things you=E2=80=99d change? =20

Collin=20

**The PS.**
For next week - I=E2=80=99m thinking of chapter 1 (introduces the idea of p=
mf strength + a formula for growth) or the strategy of a sale. Let me know =
what you think.=20

I=E2=80=99ve taken all week off to work on finishing the book so I=E2=80=99=
ll hopefully have plenty of content by this time next week.=20


=E2=80=94=E2=80=94=E2=80=94

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 copy and paste this link in your browser to view the post online:
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wrap:normal;word-spacing:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><div role=3D"art=
icle" aria-roledescription=3D"email" aria-label=3D"email_name" lang=3D"en" =
style=3D"font-size:1rem"><div style=3D"display:none;max-height:0px;overflow=
:hidden;"> Thanks to everyone who replied last week, the overwhelming votes=
 were for quantifying product market fit so I skipped right to Chapter 2. T=
his one is also long because it=E2=80=99s the bones of the chapter, there w=
ill be more added and there is still a bunch of cleaning up to do. &#160;&#=
8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160=
;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#=
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;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8=
204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;=
&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#1=
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04;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204;&#160;&#8204; </div><table role=3D"none" width=
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width=3D"670" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" class=3D"aa"=
 style=3D"width:670px;table-layout:fixed;"><tr><td class=3D"bodyWrapper" al=
ign=3D"center" valign=3D"top" style=3D"padding:10px 5px 10px 5px;"><table r=
ole=3D"none" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0=
" align=3D"center"><tr><td align=3D"center" valign=3D"top" style=3D"border:=
0px solid #FFFFFF;border-radius:10px;background-color:#FFFFFF;" class=3D"c"=
><table role=3D"none" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpad=
ding=3D"0" align=3D"center"><tr><td class=3D"f" align=3D"right" valign=3D"t=
op" style=3D"padding:20px 15px;"><p> June 21, 2024 &nbsp; | &nbsp; <a href=
=3D"https://link.mail.beehiiv.com/ss/c/u001.xDrLMY0giiSlGuELGCgU3vcTjpRMaSW=
zujUngxObjZYrCabQfdS8QeuInKYXW1f7bPXyhuOJmWjFSoUv82XsNx9m3HYhuO7jr6VGAPcG_l=
GIVqeYiFci2ecYUZPRlkyCiLXh_0ezl9UuDz7r-w0hwuluOvIyU_AAmeP4cOqSC52qe7gxoqOZo=
kf9deSy7fSrDv7NdFmrVaCJH2ySpdOb9i17oeVVVgJK-Em-MB64quuUqS1Q1OVFdbD6-Maanqz0=
cVusLTo9B3XJpfzRY7F0j-e3D_VG-KZQDCJMnJLu1EYlByA6F23v3-zE-8jI3aevLlv2KVV9E2-=
GwQZuGEcvfQCbQF3D97RmghjQEiURkAE2LctwAzCFl70YU8LpCuqwXZykixnY0JPLsozEPg2Su1=
LKYdxYshPdEkIlgRnn9al3TlEwNimjI0Eyf_416352qQgmQpLtMQ4MoEr8mp9cpY9kVhH70wgiw=
bNB1q8c2HcSrg9-kS416kntxrDhiiVoP0JoGzLvOEYkfkSrvXNFRKT5MWGOFUsw1Ok88_WqC5ve=
h7zAi1djZPe-EbrfsfqHt9q0momKjLU-2MOmIcLhOkTGpSz04oUDY2AOyFZz4G2wbT-y55ZxnLT=
xYZrysPLfr8eNZc4SwbiuvIPykqcSyamr8EWa5ijVIn6uwM8WiojftuRD_rQGiDVK44MRBVw3MJ=
UksI8iapIdQuhxQg2wWA/47e/k7KzJZfOQii17zOgnj3wUA/h0/h001.FplEpZnGWdDxFOAhdeG=
yJsYViI7CM0sb3Kbu6aEVGxI">Read Online</a></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd"=
 align=3D"center" valign=3D"top" style=3D"padding:0px 15px 20px;"><table ro=
le=3D"none" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0"=
 align=3D"center"><tr><td align=3D"center" valign=3D"top"><h1 style=3D"text=
-align:left;font-family:'Trebuchet MS','Lucida Grande',Tahoma,sans-serif;fo=
nt-weight:Bold;font-size:32px;color:#2A2A2A;padding:2px 0;line-height:38px;=
"> Chapter 2: measuring product market fit </h1></td></tr></table></td></tr=
><tr><td align=3D"center" valign=3D"top" style=3D"padding:5px 15px;" class=
=3D"dd"><table class=3D"mob-block" role=3D"none" width=3D"100%" border=3D"0=
" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" align=3D"center"><tr><td aling=3D"cen=
ter" valign=3D"middle"><table role=3D"none" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" =
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lign=3D"left" valign=3D"middle"><table role=3D"none" border=3D"0" cellspaci=
ng=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" align=3D"left" style=3D"width:140px;"><tr><td al=
ign=3D"left" valign=3D"middle"><a style=3D"text-decoration:none;" href=3D"h=
ttps://link.mail.beehiiv.com/ss/c/u001.UY7-jEMcRLZ5W6M0bzLpmxH7-WTt-1gChtTc=
ndEMyBoSwgSdDaOALV1MAeTHOBSUWCqEjdMxJtRDlZvsKnAu88Z1YRIslV1dQgAoGeH-LlK989x=
Epf95Db8ika45SlwhTcebUM9PZMOxcEU8EIFTSHNgla9Fy4dlRf2KkCUy_hJRINds574mI3J39b=
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lSHWbvxWa_3R0PrZ-j-UnjDgFrM/47e/k7KzJZfOQii17zOgnj3wUA/h1/h001.620u2Lo9laNO=
evIc5bXa5dAlGzHO9ilUSVBmP5lMoWM"><img style=3D"display:block;color:#000000;=
max-width:28px;" width=3D"28" alt=3D"fb" border=3D"0" src=3D"https://media.=
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&nbsp;</td><td align=3D"left" valign=3D"middle"><a style=3D"text-decoration=
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are/linkedin_round.png"/></a></td><td width=3D"14" style=3D"width:14px;">&n=
bsp;</td><td align=3D"left" valign=3D"middle"><a style=3D"text-decoration:n=
one;" href=3D"mailto:?subject=3DPost%20from%20Predictable%20Revenue%3A%20Fo=
unders%20Edition&body=3DChapter%202%3A%20measuring%20product%20market%20fit=
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hapter-2-product-market-fit"><img style=3D"display:block;color:#000000;max-=
width:28px;" width=3D"28" alt=3D"email" border=3D"0" src=3D"https://media.b=
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able></td></tr></table></td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td style=3D"height:=
0px;width:0px;"><div style=3D"height:1px;" data-open-tracking=3D"true"> <im=
g src=3D"https://link.mail.beehiiv.com/ss/o/u001.QDl44NxZBc1mRkS74rGpGQ/47e=
/k7KzJZfOQii17zOgnj3wUA/ho.gif" alt=3D"" width=3D"1" height=3D"1" border=3D=
"0" style=3D"height:1px !important;width:1px !important;border-width:0 !imp=
ortant;margin-top:0 !important;margin-bottom:0 !important;margin-right:0 !i=
mportant;margin-left:0 !important;padding-top:0 !important;padding-bottom:0=
 !important;padding-right:0 !important;padding-left:0 !important;"/> </div>=
</td></tr><tr id=3D"content-blocks"><td class=3D"email-card-body" align=3D"=
center" valign=3D"top" style=3D"padding-bottom:15px;"><table role=3D"none" =
width=3D"100%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" align=3D"ce=
nter"><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-al=
ign:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><spa=
n style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Good morning Andrew, </span></p></td></t=
r><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:=
left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span st=
yle=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Thanks to everyone who replied last week, th=
e overwhelming votes were for quantifying product market fit so I skipped r=
ight to Chapter 2. This one is also long because it=E2=80=99s the bones of =
the chapter, there will be more added and there is still a bunch of cleanin=
g up to do. </span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=
=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"co=
lor: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Here=E2=80=
=99s my ask, what are 3 things that you like and 3 things you=E2=80=99d cha=
nge? </span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padd=
ing:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;pa=
dding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">tl;dr: </span></p></=
td></tr><tr><td style=3D"padding-bottom:12px;padding-left:37px;padding-righ=
t:27px;padding-top:12px;" class=3D"ee"><div style=3D"margin-left:0px;" clas=
s=3D"edm_outlooklist"><ul style=3D"list-style-type:disc;margin:0px 0px;padd=
ing:0px 0px 0px 0px;"><li class=3D"listItem ultext"><p style=3D"padding:0px=
;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 8=
0);">Product Market Fit Strength can be measured </span></p></li><li class=
=3D"listItem ultext"><p style=3D"padding:0px;text-align:left;word-break:bre=
ak-word;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">I use a funnel and track t=
he conversion rate & time</span></p></li><li class=3D"listItem ultext"><p s=
tyle=3D"padding:0px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><span style=3D"=
color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">The four stages are Acquisition, Activation, Retent=
ion, and Referral </span></p></li><li class=3D"listItem ultext"><p style=3D=
"padding:0px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><span style=3D"color:r=
gb(44, 62, 80);">The formula is =3D Referral Rate x (1/number of days) x 10=
00=C2=A0</span></p></li></ul></div></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"=
left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p =
style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">T=
hanks for your support, here=E2=80=99s Chapter 2: Measuring Product Market =
Fit.</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"paddi=
ng:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;pad=
ding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Collin </span></p></t=
d></tr><tr><td align=3D"center" valign=3D"top" style=3D"font-size:0px;line-=
height:0px;padding:30px 0px;" class=3D"dd"><table class=3D"j" role=3D"none"=
 width=3D"50%" border=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" align=3D"ce=
nter"><tr><td> &nbsp; </td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" alig=
n=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;=
"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80=
);">In a previous email I introduced the idea that Product Market Fit Stren=
gth is a measure of the pull of the market, similar to measuring the streng=
th of a magnet. In this email, I=E2=80=99ll share my method for quantifying=
 product market fit strength. I=E2=80=99m a salesperson at heart so it=E2=
=80=99ll be no surprise to anyone that I used a funnel. Before I get into t=
he stages of the funnel, I think it=E2=80=99s important to address where an=
d when we=E2=80=99re going to use this funnel. I use it as a =E2=80=98meta =
funnel=E2=80=99 that measures the strength of PMF across a number of market=
s, segments, personas, etc=E2=80=A6 It gives me a somewhat objective measur=
ement of the relative strength of each variable.=C2=A0</span></p></td></tr>=
<tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:le=
ft;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><b>The fun=
nel.</b><br><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">I started using this fun=
nel to track my customer development process when I was struggling to artic=
ulate why one segment felt better than another. We only had subjective data=
, collected from our interviews, and found that our personal opinions were =
working their way into the conversations as facts. I had already tracked ev=
ery person I talk to in a big CRM-like sheet so it wasn=E2=80=99t too hard =
to add in a few extra columns. The hardest part was filling it out (thanks =
Vanessa!) and keeping it up to date. Here are the stages:=C2=A0</span></p><=
/td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text=
-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><=
span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><b>Acquisition</b></span><span style=
=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"> - when we tell them about it, are people excit=
ed to try it?</span><br><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><b>Activatio=
n</b></span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"> - do they actually sign=
 up/pay/follow through on your CTA?</span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, =
80);"><b>Retention</b></span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"> - when=
 they sign up, do they keep using the product?</span><br><span style=3D"col=
or:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><b>Referral</b></span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62,=
 80);"> - if they use it, was it so great that they tell their friends?</sp=
an></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 1=
5px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12=
px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Great products that serve a l=
arge market with unmet needs tend to be so exciting that the people you enc=
ounter feel a need to tell everyone they know. When I first started intervi=
ewing people for </span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><a class=3D"=
link" href=3D"https://link.mail.beehiiv.com/ss/c/u001.GcqSUcM8vWDcK6t4-fN1S=
VfwYPiLOJWrQG2xF_XEheWnIyhd83ewKvRP0wrhwS8R4FPGfP16Q8O_CsWD05KXj8UctIAzf0wC=
2XmfL1wCL_fGBUlhxD-6BiWpX81SDkqT4Hb4udfDASkcBIfGiA27s4f-k4oyckYzi0SIfXd3Cmz=
f7FnkB1-pFlAM9ejeS5m-_CHfImzMPiD21-oeX8-8Bg/47e/k7KzJZfOQii17zOgnj3wUA/h4/h=
001.FyILH7EXwhDmP6FXC9KT_52DYC10pO34Fp-IYwH6W7g" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"n=
oopener noreferrer nofollow"><span>Carb.io</span></a></span><span style=3D"=
color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"> (something that did quite well), people would stop=
 me part way through an interview and breathlessly ask, =E2=80=9Cwait! Are =
you working on solving this?!=E2=80=9D I could feel their excitement that f=
inally the painful experience of not having a tool for X would be over.=C2=
=A0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"paddin=
g:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padd=
ing: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Tracking the referrals=
 you get from each customer is a great proxy measurement for excitement. It=
=E2=80=99s objective and reinforces something you should be focusing on, ma=
king people so happy they tell their friends. I mostly cared about two numb=
ers, the percentage of people we talked to that referred us to another user=
 and how long it took to go from first conversation to first referral.=C2=
=A0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"paddin=
g:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padd=
ing: 12px 0;"><b>Interviews =E2=80=94&gt; Referrals =E2=80=94&gt; Customers=
.</b><br><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Some of you may have notice=
d that these are Dave McClure=E2=80=99s Pirate Metrics minus Revenue. I int=
entionally left Revenue out because I start measuring these stats when I=E2=
=80=99m pre-revenue and usually pre-product. This is not a perfect model be=
cause there are some problem spaces where referrals are not natural or allo=
wed. If this is the case for you, then revenue is a fine proxy.=C2=A0</span=
></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15p=
x;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px=
 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">What we=E2=80=99re trying to ca=
pture by measuring the referral ratio is the % of your users that think you=
r product is so great that they have to tell their friends. The reason this=
 is the primary focus is that the people you run your customer development =
interviews with should be your first customers. Your next customers are ver=
y likely to come from referrals from your first customers. If I=E2=80=99m n=
ot able to walk someone from first conversation to referral it is a strong =
indication that growth will be challenging. It doesn=E2=80=99t mean I don=
=E2=80=99t have a product or a market to sell it to, it=E2=80=99s just that=
 the market isn=E2=80=99t pulling my product from me very strongly. I=E2=80=
=99m trying to measure that pull.=C2=A0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=
=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break=
:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rg=
b(44, 62, 80);">It=E2=80=99s important to tag your users by different varia=
bles when you=E2=80=99re exploring. With Athlon, we had 15 characteristics =
that we tracked under the user profile, 10 for the reason they exercised, a=
nd 1 ICP/Persona category. When you can filter your funnel by different var=
iables, it can help you identify trends that you might miss when looking at=
 the broader audience. When we first started working on Athlon, we thought =
we=E2=80=99d focus on semi-pro athletes but we also interviewed some random=
 friends of ours just to build a wide sample. After the interviews, it was =
clear that semi-pro athletes weren=E2=80=99t interested, I didn=E2=80=99t n=
eed a fancy spreadsheet to figure that out, they straight up told me.=C2=A0=
</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0=
px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding=
: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">When we looked at the dat=
a, it was pretty mediocre. What was interesting, was that there was a cohor=
t of folks that, when we filtered by only their data, had really high score=
s. It was a cohort of folks that used to play sports or work out 4-5 times =
a week but were struggling to regain the habit after having kids. Many of t=
hem were exercising because they wanted to get back to a previously lower w=
eight. I belonged to this group but it was my buddy Karl, who also belonged=
 to the cohort, that gave it the name =E2=80=9Cfat dads=E2=80=9D. It starte=
d out as a bit of a joke but the data backed up that it was a pretty intere=
sting niche.=C2=A0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" =
style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=
=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">A low =
referral rate does not necessarily mean you do not have product market fit =
and won=E2=80=99t be able to build a business on top of it. It means that y=
our go to market investments won=E2=80=99t go as far.=C2=A0</span></p></td>=
</tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-ali=
gn:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><b>At=
hlon, a recent example.</b><br><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Athlo=
n is the most recent startup that I tried to validate and I interviewed ~47=
 people. No matter where I am in my product development stage, I always end=
 every customer development interview by asking if, when it=E2=80=99s ready=
, they=E2=80=99d be interested in trying it out. It doesn=E2=80=99t have to=
 be a =E2=80=9Cwill you pay for it=E2=80=9D conversation, just a casual ask=
 if they=E2=80=99d try it. Especially in the early days. As the product bec=
omes usable, I=E2=80=99ll start to ask for some money in exchange for using=
 it but usually at a 95% discount. The goal isn=E2=80=99t to get rich but t=
o see if people will give you some cash to try the shitty first version.</s=
pan></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px =
15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 1=
2px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Here are my customer develop=
ment interview stats for Athlon:=C2=A0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D=
"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:br=
eak-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(4=
4, 62, 80);"><b>Total conversations - 47=C2=A0</b></span><br><span style=3D=
"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Conversations are Stage zero in my funnel. Everyon=
e I talk to starts here. If the meet the entry criteria of the next stage, =
they get moved down. If you follow this model, make sure you and everyone y=
ou=E2=80=99re working with are using the stages in the same way.=C2=A0</spa=
n></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15=
px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12p=
x 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><b>Acquisition - 38 (80%)=C2=
=A0</b></span><br><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Step one in my cus=
tomer development funnel is Acquisition, when I ask people if they want to =
try the thing, do they say yes? For Athlon, the last product I tested with =
this method, roughly 80% said yes. What I learned from the 20% was that mos=
t of them belonged to an ICP that didn=E2=80=99t care about the problem we =
wanted to solve.=C2=A0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"le=
ft" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p st=
yle=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><b>=
Activation - 26 (68%)</b></span><br><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">=
My next move was to call their bluff, let=E2=80=99s call this Activation. F=
or the 38 people that said they=E2=80=99d be interested in checking it out,=
 I sent them an invite to try the platform. This is where the rubber met th=
e road because it is much easier to say yes to a hypothetical offer than a =
real one. For Athlon, the numbers weren=E2=80=99t so great, in my opinion, =
and only 26 people actually clicked the link and signed up.=C2=A0</span></p=
></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;te=
xt-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"=
><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><b>Retention - 10 (38%)=C2=A0</b></=
span><br><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Once people were live on th=
e platform, I wanted to see how many actually continued to use the product.=
 This is where we ran into trouble. We ended up retaining 38%. It was an in=
dication that our product wasn=E2=80=99t amazing yet, which we knew because=
 it was super early. As people exited the funnel, I would reach out to book=
 interviews with them so I could understand why they dropped off.=C2=A0</sp=
an></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 1=
5px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12=
px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><b>Referral - 9 (90%)=C2=A0</=
b></span><br><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">The thing that surprise=
d me the most was the referrals. Of the 10 people that ended up using the p=
latform, almost all of them referred at least one additional user that sign=
ed up. This was a really strong indication that we had found something inte=
resting.=C2=A0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" styl=
e=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"c=
olor: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">While we di=
d find that people had the pain we thought existed, we couldn=E2=80=99t fin=
d a way to create a real business around it. The users were consumers but w=
e wanted to pursue a B2B model selling to employers and couldn=E2=80=99t fi=
nd a good way in. Our team of 3 ended up running out of steam and we went o=
ur separate ways. There=E2=80=99s probably still an opportunity here, we ju=
st weren=E2=80=99t able to make progress on it given the time and resource =
constraints we had.=C2=A0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D=
"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p=
 style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><b>The Funnel.</b><br><span style=3D"co=
lor:rgb(44, 62, 80);">At least you can learn from our experience, here=E2=
=80=99s what our final funnel metrics looked like:=C2=A0</span></p></td></t=
r><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:=
left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span st=
yle=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Total conversations - 47=C2=A0</span><br><sp=
an style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Acquisition - 38 (80%)=C2=A0</span><br>=
<span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Activation - 26 (68%)</span><br><spa=
n style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Retention - 10 (38%)=C2=A0</span><br><sp=
an style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Referral - 9 (90%)=C2=A0</span></p></td=
></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-al=
ign:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><spa=
n style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">We tracked it all in a big spreadsheet c=
alled </span><a class=3D"link" href=3D"https://link.mail.beehiiv.com/ss/c/u=
001.VPQbJ-t6SbEWV-D-Q4fReNs0Bx7eJS6zYItpuswmpPEPKciYHsuJwOw-k9EpP4M468byV_g=
SX7xYBV9mZE6UiMMHc6kuMERSqgGa_C9QVuQQf4R27lj_XR9p5gXciy_cr8NfGJb6WvwYSJrapf=
SaAEeaWKSurG5YMPAgDPe3Fe73O8R8UHQ7pJnB1gsHWvmkodHV8jS8dxXhehguc0m2hd_K3mi6h=
9BlhqZ5Lp8fvmzZvVJ7Um6WawwUq04SrPXVqURR35AOeZegCasI7_g7ud9USAwrnD2pVpaOVhq2=
JJFBgxxH5Da4nect7lK35DZL/47e/k7KzJZfOQii17zOgnj3wUA/h5/h001.FeS1ZvsXVixIruk=
80b7nbdBZRT-wyKiXaqxWAmf0Kgc" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer =
nofollow"><span>SHARED: External Interviews</span></a><span style=3D"color:=
rgb(44, 62, 80);">.=C2=A0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D=
"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p=
 style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">=
Our total funnel efficiency was 9 / 47 or 19% from conversation to referral=
, which in hindsight is pretty strong. It took us an average of 30 days to =
move someone from Conversation to Referral which wasn=E2=80=99t as great.=
=C2=A0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"pad=
ding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;p=
adding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Your numbers will b=
e different and that=E2=80=99s ok. The reason to represent this as a funnel=
 is it tells you where you need to focus if you want to make things better.=
 For Athlon, I could see that we were losing most of our customers at the r=
etention stage. That told me that while we had something interesting, our t=
ool needed to be better if we wanted users to onboard unassisted.=C2=A0</sp=
an></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 1=
5px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12=
px 0;"><b>The Formula.</b><br><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Someti=
mes the market just pulls the product out of you. In these situations, the =
conversion rate to referral doesn=E2=80=99t accurately represent the full s=
trength of your product market fit and you need to add a time variable into=
 the mix. A funnel that converts to referral in 7 days is significantly bet=
ter than one that takes 30 days to accomplish the same feat. Here is the fo=
rmula I=E2=80=99ve used to calculate my Product Market Fit Strength:</span>=
</p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px=
;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px =
0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">PMF-S =3D Conversation to Referr=
al Rate x (1/Time) x 1000=C2=A0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" al=
ign=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-wor=
d;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, =
80);">*</span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><i>Time =3D number of =
days from Conversation to Referral</i></span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D=
"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:br=
eak-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(4=
4, 62, 80);">If I compare the scores of Athlon, the startup we worked on fo=
r 14 months and never made any revenue, with </span><span style=3D"color:rg=
b(44, 62, 80);"><a class=3D"link" href=3D"https://link.mail.beehiiv.com/ss/=
c/u001.GcqSUcM8vWDcK6t4-fN1SVfwYPiLOJWrQG2xF_XEheWnIyhd83ewKvRP0wrhwS8R4FPG=
fP16Q8O_CsWD05KXj8UctIAzf0wC2XmfL1wCL_fGBUlhxD-6BiWpX81SDkqT4Hb4udfDASkcBIf=
GiA27s4f-k4oyckYzi0SIfXd3Cmzf7FnkB1-pFlAM9ejeS5m-_CHfImzMPiD21-oeX8-8Bg/47e=
/k7KzJZfOQii17zOgnj3wUA/h6/h001.pkZTYOwUQ2GWPCaiu-kgSpXfxpVB8Z3aQTcEMtuJqqE=
" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noopener noreferrer nofollow"><span>Carb.io</spa=
n></a></span><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">, our startup that scal=
ed $0 - $1m in a few months, it=E2=80=99s pretty clear that one is better t=
han another.=C2=A0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" =
style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=
=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Athlon=
 Strength of PMF =3D 0.19 x 0.033 x 1000 =3D 6.27</span></p></td></tr><tr><=
td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;wo=
rd-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"=
color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Carb Strength of PMF =3D 0.40 x 0.14 x 1000 =3D 56=
=C2=A0</span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"pad=
ding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;p=
adding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">These scores are sn=
apshots from a specific time period, they=E2=80=99re only useful as a way o=
f comparing against one another. This is just a proxy I use when I=E2=80=99=
m comparing projects that I=E2=80=99m considering. Be careful when you comp=
are your score to someone else=E2=80=99s. If there=E2=80=99s one thing I=E2=
=80=99ve learned from helping fix sales teams it=E2=80=99s that everyone us=
es their stage definitions a little differently.=C2=A0</span></p></td></tr>=
<tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:le=
ft;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span styl=
e=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><b>The End + CTA.</b></span><br><span style=3D=
"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Wow, you made it, congrats and thank you. I know s=
ome of those sections are still super rough.</span><br><br><span style=3D"c=
olor:rgb(44, 62, 80);">What are 3 things you=E2=80=99d keep and 3 things yo=
u=E2=80=99d change? </span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left=
" style=3D"padding:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p styl=
e=3D"color: ;padding: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">Colli=
n </span></p></td></tr><tr><td class=3D"dd" align=3D"left" style=3D"padding=
:0px 15px;text-align:left;word-break:break-word;"><p style=3D"color: ;paddi=
ng: 12px 0;"><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);"><b>The PS.</b></span><b=
r><span style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">For next week - I=E2=80=99m thinki=
ng of chapter 1 (introduces the idea of pmf strength + a formula for growth=
) or the strategy of a sale. Let me know what you think. </span><br><br><sp=
an style=3D"color:rgb(44, 62, 80);">I=E2=80=99ve taken all week off to work=
 on finishing the book so I=E2=80=99ll hopefully have plenty of content by =
this time next week. </span></p></td></tr></table></td></tr><tr><td class=
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