The Ones They’ve Been Waiting For

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Next Generation

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What’s behind the accelerati= ng shift of younger Americans toward the Democratic Party? David A.= Hopkins on the far-reaching consequences of a widening generation= al divide.

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Sam McNamara

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Once again dominating U.S.= political news, former President Donald Trump was arraigned on Ju= ne 13 in Miami on 37 federal charges for taking classified documents from t= he White House and refusing to return them. It’s the latest Trump sto= ry in a stream that’s absorbed American media from the time he declar= ed his first presidential candidacy eight years ago. Since then, mainstream= U.S. political talk has focused regularly on Trump’s takeover of the= Republican Party, the roiling populism it’s have unleashed, and the = implications of it all for an American democracy sometimes apparently under= threat.

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Meanwhile, a striking change has b= een taking place across a vast swath of American society that’s deter= mining more and more of American democracy’s future: its younger vote= rs. And it’s a change that could have major implications not just for= Trump’s style of politics but for the United States’ election = results and national policies for decades to come.

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Large majorities of the two younge= st generations of Americans—Millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) = and Generation Z (1997 and 2010)—consistently support opinions to the= left of the political center on their country’s most controversial i= ssues, whether on abortion, gun control, race, same-sex marriage, or transg= ender rights. Like many young generations in recent U.S. history, Millennia= ls and Gen Z tend to vote for the Democratic Party more consistently than o= ther age groups do—but they also tend to identify with the Democrats = much more strongly than previous generations did when they were young. What= ’s happening here?

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David A. Hopkins = is an associate professor of political science at Boston College. As Hopkin= s sees it, this great shift to the left among younger voters is part of a m= ajor social transformation in America. It’s visible in the ways influ= ential U.S. institutions—from universities to entertainment media, to= corporations—have been adopting and promoting progressive moral and = political positions on questions of identity, race, and gender. And it&rsqu= o;s started to alter the composition of the Democratic Party’s base&m= dash;along with the party’s political rhetoric and policy priorities.=

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It’s not clear, however, wha= t these changes will mean for American politics in the longer term, Hopkins= says—not least because ultimately, American politics tends to reshap= e itself around the larger social and generational changes that are continu= ally reshaping the country.

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Michael Bluhm: Wh= at do we know about the political beliefs and party allegiances of Millenni= al and Generation Z voters?

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David A. Hopkins:= We know they’re clearly Democratic-leaning. The Democrat’s adv= antage when it comes to party identification and voting is greater among Mi= llennials and Gen Z than it is among any older generation—and arguabl= y greater than it’s been among any older generation when it was young= er.

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In other words, what we’re s= eeing now isn’t just, yet again, people leaning to the left when they= ’re young and then moving to the right as they age. We’re seein= g younger generations that lean more to the left than previous generations = ever have at their age.

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This extends to people’s pos= itions on issues, as well. It’s not just that Millennials and Gen Z t= end to prefer Democrats to Republicans; it’s also that Millennials an= d Gen Z tend to lean to the left ideologically on economic and cultural iss= ues, compared to older Americans. The generation gap is more pronounced on = cultural issues, but that’s less unusual than the growing gap on econ= omic issues.

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Across the board, younger voters a= re further to the left—both than their elders are today or than young= er voters were in previous generations.

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Bluhm: Why do you= think younger voters are further left than previous generations were?

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Hopkins: It&rsquo= ;s a combination of things. One factor is demographics. This is the most ra= cially diverse generation in American history—particularly in the com= position of Hispanics and Asian Americans. But even among whites, we see th= e same generational differences in beliefs and Democratic affiliation. So r= ace isn’t the whole story.

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One constant in contemporary Ameri= can history is that the political climate when you’re an adolescent o= r young adult can be very influential in shaping your political identity. B= arack Obama was an especially popular president with younger people, and Do= nald Trump was an especially unpopular president with younger people. In th= e last 15 years, American politics has presented a strong contrast between = the parties that’s tended to work among younger Americans to the Demo= crats’ advantage.

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On culture-war issues—like s= exual identity, race, gender equality—younger people are living in a = social environment that puts most of them further to the left than their pa= rents and grandparents ever were.

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Hopkins: There is= some evidence of a shift to the right among younger voters. That wouldn&rs= quo;t be too surprising, given how we usually see a pattern like that from = generation to generation.

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But it’s complicated by the = fact that more people in younger generations are voting from one election t= o the next. Turnout rates rise with age, so more people of every generation= start voting as they get older. In other words, the Millennials who voted = in the 2020 election are not the same ones who voted in the 2008 election. = Some weren’t old enough to vote in 2008, and some who voted in 2020 h= ad decided not to vote in 2008.

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Mauro Mora

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More from David A. Hopkins at = The Signal:

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“In the last 20 year= s, there’ve been a lot of stories about dramatic changes in = the Republican Party. But it’s important to recognize that the Democr= ats are changing, too. One critical implication of this change is that the = Democratic Party now has a different set of constituencies with different b= eliefs and priorities. As a result, Democratic candidates no longer feel as= worried about moving to the left on cultural issues. They used to be conce= rned about alienating non-college-educated whites, who usually had relative= ly traditionalist views on gay rights, gun control, and abortion. Democrats= today mostly represent a coalition of non-whites and college-educated whit= es who have more progressive cultural views. That’s allowed their par= ty to become more united on issues and policy than it used to be. And it ha= sn’t worried nearly as much about appealing to non-college whites.&rd= quo;

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“The change on the D= emocratic side is underappreciated. It’s been more gradual, = and there haven’t been major breaks. There has not been a figure like= Trump to symbolize a transformative break with the past, either. But the D= emocratic Party has gradually become quite different than it used to be. It= not only has a different set of constituencies; it has a different approac= h to governing. One major change is in attitudes toward expertise. Democrat= s have come to stand for being the party of experts and science. They liste= n to people with credentials and make policies that experts recommend, whet= her environmental, healthcare, education, or civil-rights policy. The Democ= ratic Party today is a technocratic party. It’s a party that believes= in the rule of experts and expert-led institutions. That’s not neces= sarily the party of Harry Truman or George McGovern, but it’s definit= ely the party of Obama and Biden.”

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“Party identificatio= n is the most stable of all political identities in America. The D= emocrats are the party of the rising young generation, so they hope that tr= anslates over time into a growing national share of the vote from one elect= ion to the next. They also hope that that pattern of generational stability= in party identification holds. The rosy scenario for the Democrats is that= it’s just a matter of time before Millennials and Gen Z are a big en= ough chunk of the electorate to give the Democrats an inherent advantage in= elections. To temper that hope, I’d point out that this development = will take a long time. Turnout rates for young voters are so much lower tha= n for older voters that the median age of a U.S. voter is in the fifties. T= he oldest Millennials will take another 15 years to get to the median voter= age. This shift isn’t going to change the electoral outlook for 2024= or 2028.”

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