The Long Haul

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Undeterred

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Why has Western support for Ukrain= e been so resilient? Chris Miller on the strength of the p= ro-Kyiv coalition, the weakness in Moscow’s understanding of it, and = the prospects for world order after the war.

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Ahmed Zalabany

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(Originally published 2023&nbs= p;| 01.12)

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After Russian military for= ces invaded Ukraine last year, support for the embattled republic = swept across the West, as did condemnation of Putin's aggression—= and the threat it represented to the whole idea of democracy sovereignty. U= kraine’s resilience since has won global admiration, and been a sourc= e of global inspiration, but that resilience hasn’t come without cost= in the West: The protracted war that’s resulted has driven energy an= d fuel prices dramatically higher—and inflation to levels unseen sinc= e the 1980s. And the spike in energy costs, in particular, has provoked pub= lic protests in a number of European countries. Yet support among strong ma= jorities in the European Union, the United States, and other democratic cou= ntries remains firm. Why is that?

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Chris Miller is a= n assistant professor of international history at Tufts University’s = Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, and the author of the new book Ch= ip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology. To M= iller, there’s a confluence of reasons: Ukraine’s battlefield s= uccess has won the confidence of global publics; Kyiv’s careful manag= ement of its allies has won the confidence of Western leaders; and Russia&r= squo;s own leadership has meanwhile made so many mistakes, and suffered so = many setbacks, that it no longer looks like the overwhelming imperial menac= e it appeared to be a year ago. All of which has supported a powerful moral= consensus throughout the West. Russian elites, meanwhile, remain confused = by this consensus, expecting it to have collapsed by now. The biggest quest= ion, to Miller, is how Moscow will adapt to a global reality it didn’= t anticipate—through the end of the war and in its eventual aftermath= .

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Eve Valentine: Wh= y do you think we haven’t seen any real signs of fatigue in Western s= upport for Ukraine?

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Chris Miller: It&= rsquo;s a pivotal question. A year ago—or even nine months ago—= there were many, many predictions that the West would get tired of supporti= ng Ukraine, and you’re right, that hasn’t really happened to an= y appreciable degree—in the U.S. or in Europe.

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I think there are a few reasons wh= y. First, the Ukrainians are, by all metrics, winning. They’ve steadi= ly taken back territory from the Russians since Spring 2022. And on the bac= k of those victories, it’s been very straightforward for supporters i= n the West to point out the very tangible benefits that supporting Ukraine = has had on the battlefield.

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Second, I think the Ukrainians hav= e overall been very responsive and responsible about escalation risks. And = because of that, it’s clear that U.S. President Biden and many Europe= an leaders aren’t concerned about the war spiraling beyond its bounda= ries. Although the Ukrainians have certainly wanted to push back against th= e Russians and hit them everywhere they can, they’ve also been mindfu= l of the escalation risks that are certainly on the minds of Biden and othe= r Western leaders. And so, while there are certainly disagreements, this ha= s enabled a surprisingly smooth relationship, given all the complexities in= volved—between the U.S. and Ukraine, as well as European countries an= d Ukraine.

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And then third, a lot of the omino= us predictions about ways that Russia might try to expand the war beyond it= s current framework haven’t happened. In the early stages of the war,= we were seeing forecasts of Russian cyber attacks in the West, of Russian = nuclear attacks, and all sorts of other escalations that haven’t happ= ened. Now, this doesn’t mean they can’t happen in the future. B= ut the fact that they haven’t happened, so far, has provided a lot of= of space for Ukraine’s supporters to say that not only are the benef= its of support real in terms of battlefield success, but the costs are limi= ted in relation to some of the catastrophic predictions people were making = in the earlier stages of the war.

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Valentine: There&= rsquo;s clearly a strong moral component in all of this—a view of Mos= cow as the authoritarian Goliath and Kyiv as the democratic David. How much= do you think the overarching ethical sense of right and wrong is contribut= ing to this enduring support for Ukraine?

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Miller: There&rsq= uo;s no doubt, the fact that Russia is the aggressor and Ukraine has been d= efending itself has shaped the way people in every Western country are look= ing at the situation.

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It’s striking, because there= are many instances in international politics where moral dynamics aren&rsq= uo;t matched by action—and where there are catastrophes that unfold o= r aggressions that go unpunished. What’s notable about this case is t= hat it’s not only been that Western publics recognize that Russia is = the aggressor and Ukraine is the victim; it’s that they’ve take= n real steps to do something about it. More often, that’s not the cas= e.

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Valentine: Thinki= ng about those real steps, the U.S. and other Western countries are spendin= g considerable taxpayer money to support the war—or rather, Ukraine&r= squo;s defense. Overall, the costs are still relatively low, and Western so= ldiers aren’t directly fighting; but on the other hand, we see energy= costs rising by 500 percent in some European countries. How are people acr= oss the West perceiving the cost of the war for themselves?

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Miller: The answe= r to that question has changed somewhat. In the U.S., the primary impact wa= s on gasoline prices, which spiked last year but have since fallen back to = more normal levels. And where it comes to the direct transfer of funds or m= ilitary aid, the overall dollar value is still small relative to the rest o= f U.S. government spending. So the typical American isn’t really feel= ing any direct impact on his or her life.

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In Europe, it’s very differe= nt, because there’s been a major impact, not just on oil markets, but= on natural-gas markets—where you’re seeing prices spike dramat= ically. And that’s driving inflation higher across much of Central an= d Eastern Europe.

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=D0=90=D0=BB=D0=B5=D1=81=D1=8C =D0= =A3=D1=81=D1=86=D1=96=D0=BD=D0=B0=D1=9E

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More from Chris Miller at The = Signal:

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“I think we hear a l= ot more talk than is warranted, honestly, about the chances that t= he U.S. government will reduce its support for Ukraine. If you look at the = votes in Congress, they’ve been overwhelmingly in favor of both econo= mic and military aid. And if you look at the number of Republicans in the H= ouse that have voiced real skepticism, it’s really a small number. &h= ellip; I’m quite skeptical that we’re going to see any meaningf= ul change in U.S. policy driven by Congress over the next couple of months,= if ever.”

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“Over the last decad= e, the Russian elite has repeatedly overestimated the extent of di= vision in the West—and now they’ve overestimated its unity and = resolve in Ukraine. If you look at what this elite has been saying, and how= that’s been refracted in Russian media, and then you compare it with= actual debates in Europe, what you’ll find is that the Russians regu= larly interpret very standard differences of opinion as representing a fund= amental crisis—when in reality, it’s just the push and pull of = democratic politics.”

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“There’s littl= e doubt in my mind that this war—unlike the annexation = of Crimea in 2014 or the war in Georgia six years earlier—is going to= have longer and more significant repercussions for Russian-Western relatio= ns beyond the end of the war. But I’m not inclined to think that this= is going to blind Western leaders to the realities of international politi= cs or Russian politics. And if by some mechanism, we end up seeing a change= in Russia’s leadership, or a significant change in Russian politics,= years down the road, I don’t think this war will necessarily make it= impossible to improve relations.”

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