‘The Regime Is Dead’

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Rattle and Hum

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What’s happening in Iran&mda= sh;and what are the implications across the Middle East? Kim Ghatta= s on the long-term prospects for autocratic rule and democratic re= sistance.

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Sean Nangle

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After the 22-year-old Mahs= a Amini died in custody, following her arrest by Iran’s Guid= ance Patrol—the morality police—for “improperly” we= aring her hijab head covering, fierce protests spread across the country. T= hey amounted to one of the biggest challenges to the Iranian regime since t= he Islamic Revolution brought it to power in 1979. In response, Iran’= s authorities have cracked down with detentions and executions, including p= ublic hangings.

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While organized demonstrations hav= e since faded, there are signs of anti-regime sentiment everywhere. And whi= le Iran has been pursuing new diplomacy to ease its ongoing clashes with Sa= udi Arabia and other Arab neighbors, these countries too struggle with simi= lar problems—from a growing distaste for social control and political= repression to a withering tolerance for high youth unemployment, bad gover= nance, and corruption. What’s going on in Iran’s streets—= and what does it potentially mean across the region?

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Kim Ghattas is a = journalist based in Beirut, covering the Middle East, international affairs= , and U.S. foreign policy. She’s the host of the podcast People Like Us and the author = of Black Wave: Saudi Arabia, = Iran, and the Forty-Year Rivalry That Unraveled Culture, Religion, and Coll= ective Memory in the Middle East. To Ghattas, Iran’= s demonstrations represent a growing rejection of the Islamic Republic&rsqu= o;s moral foundations. The regime may have won the battle for the moment, b= ut it’s in deep trouble in its ongoing war with a society that’= s increasingly alienated from it.

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It’s a conflict, Ghattas say= s, in which autocracy has every near-term advantage but no long-term sustai= nability. And for everything that distinguishes Iran from the broader Middl= e East, this fundamental reality is ultimately the region’s.

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This article is part of a series in partn= ership with the Human Ri= ghts Foundation. Ghattas will be a speaker at the Oslo Freedom Forum this m= onth.

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J.J. Gould: What&= rsquo;s happening with Iran’s protesters?
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Kim Ghattas: The = big anti-government demonstrations have died out, but there are still regul= ar daily acts of civil disobedience. There are young people playing music a= nd dancing in the streets, in mixed crowds—men and women, women witho= ut their veils. There are students provoking clerics. There are women walki= ng around publicly without the hijab. It’s all a continuous expressio= n of opposition to the regime.
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And the regime clearly feels vulne= rable, because it’s been on an execution binge. Last year, it killed = 580 people—a 75 percent increase from the year before. Half of those = executions were late in the year, after the protests had broken out. And it= ’s continuing this year—with sentences against social-media act= ivists, athletes, journalists, and others.
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Niloufar Hamedi and Elaheh Mohamma= di, women who reported on Mahsa Amini’s death, have been imprisoned f= or more than eight months on charges of “conspiracy and rebellion aga= inst national security” and “anti-state propaganda.” They= now face the death penalty. Others are being charged with blasphemy, of all things.
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In this environment, I expect to s= ee the recent wave of protest in Iran rising again. If you look back, you c= an see it building for years. Since 2017, there’ve been regular outbr= eaks of unrest. They die down, of course, but then they pick up. Sometimes = the wave is smaller, sometimes it’s bigger. And what we saw late last= year, after the murder of Mahsa Amini, was the biggest since 2009.

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Meanwhile, the economy is under st= ress. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—the longest-ruling dictator in the = world—is 84 and thinking about his succession. So the regime is very = sensitive about how people react to what’s going on in their lives, a= s well as to what’s going on at the top of the power structure that g= overns their lives.

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The regime may have won the battle= in recent months, but it hasn’t won the war against a society that f= eels more and more divorced from it.

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I recently saw a quote from an Ira= nian artist: “The regime is dead. It just doesn’t know it yet.&= rdquo;

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Gould: Meaning, t= he regime can’t now stop the protests from rising again and again, be= cause the social reality that’s driving them is too persistent and po= werful?

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Ghattas: Nothing = has fundamentally changed. The reasons for the protests last year—whi= ch were the reasons for the protests the year before, which were the reason= s for the protests the year before that—haven’t changed. Nothin= g’s been addressed. Nothing’s improved.

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The economy is still broken. Unemp= loyment is still high. Inflation is persistent. And for most young people&m= dash;who want to live as they see and imagine other young people living aro= und the world—there’s an intensifying sense of suffocation.

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These people aren’t just pro= testing against their living conditions anymore; they’re protesting a= gainst the very foundations of the Islamic Republic—and the retrograd= e life and worldview they see it representing. Iranian women aren’t j= ust protesting against a piece of cloth on their heads; they’re prote= sting against a pillar of the Islamic Republic, on account of which women a= re subjugated en masse to, frankly, a retrograde gerontocracy.

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Sean Nangle

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More from Kim Ghattas at = The Signal:

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“The regime is very = good at sounding like it’s making concessions—but then= not actually making any. The conceit that the morality police have been re= moved from public spaces is more or less irrelevant, because they haven&rsq= uo;t really stopped policing morality or enforcing the hijab at all. In fac= t, they’re doing it in new ways—such as installing high-tech ca= meras to identify unveiled women and sending them warnings via text message= . It’s quite incredible.”

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“For everything we d= on’t know, what we do know, I think, is that the threat is c= ontinuous and ultimately relentless. From the perspective of the people pro= testing, it’s a war of attrition: They’re just going to keep go= ing at it. Women are going to keep removing their veils and walking in publ= ic. Men and women are going to gather on the street. There’s going to= be music. There’s going to be dancing. And protests are going to fla= re up again. We know this, and the regime knows this, and it only makes the= m more determined to clamp down—and to clamp down harder. I think it&= rsquo;s going to be a tough couple of years.”

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“The question is a l= ong-term one. It’s about a generational transformation in th= e region and in the West’s relationship with it. And when we look at = what’s happening, I think it’s important to see it in this cont= ext: The Arab Spring failed for reasons that vary somewhat from, day, Tunis= ia to Sudan to Syria. But the resurgence of autocracy that’s come out= of that failure isn’t just a regional story; it’s part of a gl= obal story of the resurgence of authoritarianism. With the Arab Spring in t= atters, and with its aspirations suppressed, this is how I would hope to se= e the U.S. and the West to look at the region—as part of that global = story, not as just that region over there that’s always trouble.<= /em>”

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