The Oslo Connection

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Conspiracies of Hope

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Democracy, human rights, & The= Signal

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Ivy Gould / The Signal

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Despite increasing politic= al polarization around the democratic world—where it can now= seem as though we’re living in starkly divided realities, formed by = competing ideological views and media ecosystems—there’s a rema= rkably broad and resilient moral consensus on the foundational values of de= mocracy and human rights.

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You can see this in the global res= ponse to Moscow’s assault on Ukraine, widely interpreted not only as = an illegitimate invasion of one country by another but as an attack by an a= utocratic power on an emerging democratic society—essentially, an att= ack by autocracy on democracy.

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You can also see it in the global = response to other challenges to democracy and human rights when they might = break into the news—whether it’s Beijing’s designs on Tai= wan or ongoing oppression of the Uyghurs in northwestern China; Moscow&rsqu= o;s imprisonment of Alexei Navalny and other political dissidents; or Tehra= n’s crackdown on Iranian women and their pro-democratic allies since = the death of Mahsa Amini at the hands of the regime’s morality police= last year.

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You can see it in the global respo= nse to the standing nightmare of the North Korean prison state, at one end = of the spectrum, or attempts to undermine elections in established democrac= ies like the United States or Brazil, at the other.

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This consensus on the foundational= values of democracy and human rights is far from total, even within democr= atic societies, but it’s pervasive and powerful—almost in defia= nce of the partisan divisions that shape so much of contemporary life. = ;The Signal isn’t just part of this consensus; = we’re defined by it. It’s central to our mission, generating so= me of the biggest questions we ask as we grapple to understand what’s= happening in the world.

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Which is why we’re delighted= to be partnering with the Human Rights Foundation on the occasion of the 1= 5th anniversary of the Oslo Freedom Forum. In 2009, HRF inaugurated the OFF to pay tr= ibute to survivors of Communism and Nazism. They’ve since developed i= t into an annual event that raises global awareness, gives voice to the wor= ld’s democratic dissidents, and activates a network of support for th= em and resistance to autocracy throughout the year.

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Over the next six weeks, we’= ll be featuring conversations with participants in this year’s Forum, begin= ning Thursday with Jason Rezaian. Rezaian is an Iranian-American journalist= , a columnist for The Washington Post, and the author of Prisoner:= My 544 Days in an Iranian Prison, about his experience in captiv= ity in Iran.

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As ever, we’ll love your tho= ughts along the way: mail@thesgnl.= com.

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—J.J. Gould

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Previously, at The Signal ...<= /em>

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‘A Whole New Era’

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What do mass street protests mean = for the regime in Iran? Vali Nasr on how the demonstration= s represent a new kind of danger to the Islamic Republic.

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Tbel Abuseridze

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It’s been eight months since a new wave of demonstrations broke out across Iran, and still,= the regime hasn’t been able to stop them. The unrest began= after the country’s morality police arrested Mahsa Amini, a 22-= year-old Kurdish woman—because her hijab didn’t fully cove= r her hair, as mandated by Iranian law—and ended up killing her = in custody. Support for the demonstrations remains widespread in Iranian so= ciety: Workers in the oil sector briefly went on strike, with groups of law= yers and doctors reportedly joining the protests as well. As demonstra= tors continue to mobilize around the slogan “Woman, Life, Freedo= m,” some are going so far as to call for the end of the Islamic = Republic altogether.

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Globally, Iran’s t= heocratic system has been an archrival to the United States, in the Mi= ddle East and beyond, since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. In the region, = Israel has seen Tehran’s nuclear program as an existential threat, an= d the international deal to freeze the program remains highly contentious a= cross the U.S., Israel, and Arab countries. Many of the seemingly intr= actable political problems in the Middle East, meanwhile, trace back t= o the hostility between the Islamic Republic and its Arab neighbors, led by= Saudi Arabia. In this fraught context, how threatening are these= protests to the regime in Tehran?
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Vali Nasr is a profess= or of Middle East studies and international affairs at the Johns Hopkins Un= iversity School of Advanced International Studies, a senior fellow with the= Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, and the author of seven books = on the Middle East and Islam. As Nasr sees it, the turmoil in Iran presents= a major threat to the Iranian regime. The broad sympathy am= ong the Iranian people for the demonstrators’ demands extends even&nb= sp;among those who support the system. Though security forces have brutally= repressed and killed some of the protesters, many of those in the street a= re teenagers, and the regime is reluctant to use overwhelming violence agai= nst them. And this uprising is different from previous unrest, Nasr says, b= ecause—by rejecting the hijab and the law requiring it—the prot= esters are challenging the cultural foundations of the Islamic Revolution i= tself. At the same time, the regime faces a new and daunting problem of try= ing to restore domestic stability while dealing with a perpetually sluggish= economy and the ongoing regional and international instability that usuall= y demands most of its attention. And abroad, the demonstrations are changin= g perceptions of Iran in the region—and so, changing the political dy= namics of the Middle East.
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= Continue reading ...

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The Moscow Line

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How is propaganda from Russia shap= ing the global context of the war in Ukraine? Mike Smeltzer on the Kremlin’s program for manipulating the media at home and abr= oad.

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Alexander Popov

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Western leaders are fighti= ng an information war, as Russia continues to press its invasion o= f Ukraine. The European Union took the unprecedented step of banning the st= ate media outlets Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik. According to the president= of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, these outlets “wil= l no longer be able to spread their lies to justify Putin’s war and t= o sow division in our union.” Neither is the EU alone in trying to di= srupt the Kremlin’s media agenda. YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram ar= e blocking them in Europe. RT America announced it was "ceasing produc= tion" due to “unforeseen business interruption events” aft= er it was dropped by DirecTV and Roku. Meanwhile, the Russian government is= limiting—and in some cases, ending—Russians’ access to s= ocial media. The Kremlin is also criminalizing and restricting access to in= dependent journalism, forcing some news organizations to close. What effect= s are all of these initiatives and counter-initiatives having on the confli= ct in Ukraine?

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Mike Smeltzer is = a senior research analyst for Europe and Eurasia at Freedom House. To Smelt= zer, the global battle of narratives over Ukraine is moving in an uncertain= direction—just like the military conflict itself. These parallel str= uggles, he says, will continue to intersect with and influence each other: = Much of the world is currently rejecting Russian attempts to frame the inva= sion, but the Kremlin is constantly looking for new tactics, and its propag= anda still has the potential to undermine support for the Ukrainians. Anoth= er complicating factor, as Smeltzer sees it, is that banning Russian propag= anda can have unintended consequences, emboldening autocrats and making lib= eral democrats look hypocritical in promoting the value of freedom.

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Friends Like These

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Why is democracy eroding more amon= g America’s allies than in other countries? Moises Naí= m on how massive social change is affecting the way citizens feel,= and the nature of politics, around the world.

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Tbel Abuseridze

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Democracy is in retreat. It’s been one of the most persistent themes of the era—= through a Donald Trump presidency defined by contempt for U.S. institutions= ; populist autocrats winning elections in Europe, Asia, and Latin America; = military coups in Egypt, Myanmar, and Sudan; and an illiberal China’s= apparently unstoppable rise. Now a research institute based in Sweden that= measures democracy globally, V-Dem= , has reached a striking conclusion: On average, democratic indicators = dropped in the United States and allied countries at nearly twice the rate of non-allied countries during th= e past 10 years. Very few allies experienced any increases in democracy, wh= ich the institute calculates based on hundreds of indicators, including ele= ction fairness and judicial independence. In other words, most global democ= ratic regression isn’t the result of China, Russia, or other authorit= arians undermining countries that are struggling with transitions to democr= acy; it’s the result of weakening institutions in countries that are = established democracies—such as Hungary, Turkey, the Philippines, and= Israel. The study defines U.S. allies as the 41 cosuntries that Washington= has mutual-defense agreements with. Of course, though the United States is= the world’s oldest uninterrupted democracy, it has long kept defense= pacts with dictators, and it hasn’t always demanded democratic behav= ior from its partners. Still, why the correlation between alliance with the= U.S. and democratic decline?

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Moisés Naím<= /strong>—formerly Venezuela’s minister of trade and industry, t= he director of Venezuela’s Central Bank, and an executive director of= the World Bank—is a distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment f= or International Peace in Washington. In his view, the United States isn&rs= quo;t causing breakdowns for democratic allies; the U.S. usually has little= to do with the vitality of democracy outside its borders. The global probl= em of democratic decline ultimately traces back to a series of profound eco= nomic and social shocks that most parts of the world have gone through duri= ng the past 20 years—and as Naím sees it, the social and polit= ical consequences of these shocks have been greater in liberal than in illi= beral countries.
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= Continue reading ...

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The Signal explores urgent = questions in current events around the world—to support it and for fu= ll access:

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= Subscribe now

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This email address is unmonitored;= please send questions or comments here.
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To advertise with The Signal: = ;advertise@thesgnl.com.
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