‘We’ll See What they Can Do’

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

En Route

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Why are Ukraine’s allies fin= ally sending tanks? Robert Hamilton on the timing and impa= ct of armored-fighting vehicles from the West.

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Boevaya Mashina

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

After months of petitionin= g from Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Germany and = the U.S. announced on Wednesday, January 25, that they’d initiated se= nding advanced battle tanks to Kyiv. Zelenskyy had first asked for tanks mo= re than half a year ago—300 of them. The number now on their way from= Western allies is less than 20 percent of that. Germany’s Leopard 2s= will take months to deliver, more tanks from other European allies could a= rrive in the months to follow, and American M1 Abramses might not see their= way to Ukraine for a year. What difference could these weapons systems mak= e to the outcome of the war—and why is the West delivering so few, so= long after Ukraine asked for them?
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Robert Hamilton i= s a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studi= es Institute, a retired colonel and 30-year veteran of the U.S. Army, and a= n analyst on conflict and security issues in the former Soviet Union and th= e Balkans. It took a while, Hamilton says, for Ukraine’s allies to be= lieve it could mount a sustained, effective resistance to the Russian invas= ion for long enough to get complex weapons like tanks to them, let alone to= train them—or ultimately, to believe the Ukrainians could be effecti= ve with the weapons, rather than just get them destroyed or let them fall i= nto the Russians’ hands. Western confidence in the wisdom of arming U= kraine has since grown considerably, Hamilton says—but the logistics,= not to say the politics, of doing it have remained tricky.

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Eve Valentine: NA= TO and Western countries had refused to send tanks for months. Why are they= agreeing to now?
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Robert Hamilton: = At the outset of the war, there was a lot of concern across the West about = the risk of escalation between Russia and Ukraine. Of course, Russia helped= provoked that by labeling any assistance to Ukraine as escalatory and dest= abilizing.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

But as Russia pressed on, and as U= kraine increasingly demonstrated its ability to defend itself—and eve= n to reverse some of Russia’s territorial gains—we’ve see= n an increasing willingness among Western governments to accept more risk. = And with that, we’ve seen an increasing willingness to provide more c= omplex and capable weapons systems that take longer to learn how to use and= that require more logistical support.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

After the initial invasion, many W= estern governments fell into the unfortunate assumption that what came next= would be a short war—that Russia would roll Ukraine—and this a= ssumption stalled their eventual support efforts. Ukraine ended up surprisi= ng the world, not only with the tenacity of its resistance but with the com= petence of its defense. And frankly, Russia ended up surprising even itself= with the incompetence of its offense.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

As the war’s gone on—a= nd I think the perspective now among most Western governments is that it&rs= quo;ll be with us for a long time—Western countries have shown greate= r confidence in Ukraine and, with that, a greater openness to investing in = military support for it.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Valentine: Lo= oking at European allies specifically, EU countries other than Germany have= been relatively eager to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine—and have been= pushing Berlin to let them do it. Why has Germany been so hesitant to send= Leopards—or allow other EU countries to send them?

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Hamilton: There&r= squo;s a very deep-seated historical aversion in German foreign policy and = in German national-security policy to doing anything unilaterally. That&rsq= uo;s for obvious and good historical reasons, going back to World War II. G= ermany today never wants to strike out on its own. It always wants to act a= s part of an alliance—as part of a coalition. And when it comes to th= e war in Ukraine, and any NATO effort behind it, the most important ally an= d coalition partner for Germany is the United States.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

So it was important to the Germans= that the U.S. would lead the effort to supply tanks—or at least that= the two countries would co-lead this effort. Germany’s Chancellor Ol= af Scholz made this quite clear: His country would not move on delivering t= anks unless and until the United States provided some of its own. That woul= d be an absolute condition for the Germans to send even the relatively smal= l number of 14 Leopard 2s they’ve now agreed to send.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

It’s true, meanwhile, that G= ermany wasn’t only hesitant to send Leopards; it was hesitant to allo= w other countries to send them. That’s because Leopards are German ta= nks. Germany isn’t alone in requiring permission for transferring wea= pons systems it develops to third countries. The United States does exactly= the same thing. We call it third-party transfer authority. If a c= ountry buys a U.S. weapon, and that country wants to sell it in turn, the U= .S. has to approve the transfer. So in that sense, there’s nothing un= usual about Germany’s requirements.

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Artem Kniaz

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

More from Robert Hamilton at T= he Signal:
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

“As a platform, the = tank is the premier offensive ground maneuver weapon in the world.= Enough of them, used correctly, could potentially change the course of the= war. But two battalions of tanks won’t do that on their own. Whether= the number that would is 300 or 200 or 150, it’s definitely mor= e than 59. That said, I don’t expect this is the last we’ll see= of Western tanks being supplied to Ukraine—if the Ukrainians show th= ey can use the tanks well, even in the small numbers they’ve been sup= plied in.”
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09“It appears the = U.S. has decided to transfer what would essentially be a Ukrainian= battalion, and the U.K. and Germany have decided to transfer one company e= ach. If the Ukrainians organize these tanks into an Abrams battalion and a = Leopard battalion, deploy them in a focused way—in one sector of thei= r defensive lines, likely in the East or the South—and use them prope= rly there, they could exploit a breakthrough.”
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09“In offensive wa= rfare, tanks are very, very good to have when your enemy has prepa= red defensive lines—with mines or other obstacles—and you&rsquo= ;re able to hit those defensive lines with artillery and breach them with i= nfantry. The tanks can then go through the breach and exploit it very quick= ly, flanking the enemy or moving in behind it. So if the Ukrainians use the= tanks in that way, and use them well, they could make a real difference al= ong some extent of the lines where they’re now faced off against the = Russians in the East and South.”

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

= Continue reading ...

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

The Signal explores urgent que= stions in current events around the world—to support it and for full = access:

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

= Subscribe now

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

This email address is unmonitored;= please send questions or comments here.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

To advertise with The Signal: = ;advertise@thesgnl.com.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Add us to your address book.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Unsubscribe here.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09© 2022 The Signal =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09