Transmission

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Import-Export

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

What’s happening with electi= on denial and political violence in the world? Lucan Way o= n the threat and limits of a new tendency in Western democracy.

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Not long ago, it = would have been difficult for anyone in the United States to imagine a sitt= ing president responding to an election loss by claiming his rightful victo= ry had somehow been stolen—let alone that it would inspire a par= tisan attack on the U.S. Congress. Now, with recent events in Brazil, there= appears a danger that election denial and political violence could be spre= ading globally. After the Brazilian general election in October, the countr= y’s then-president, Jair Bolsonaro, announced that his defeat was the= result of widespread electoral fraud. And on January 8—two years and= two days after the U.S. Capitol riot—a mob of his supporters attacke= d and vandalized federal government buildings in Brasília, hoping to= prompt military leaders to carry out a coup d'état and reinstal= l Bolsonaro. It all seemed very familiar. Has Donald Trump changed the play= book for the world’s anti-democratic populists?
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Lucan Way is a pr= ofessor of political science at the University of Toronto and the author of= three books on authoritarianism. As Way sees it, while Trump has altered t= he political life of his country, and is still influencing political life b= eyond it, his most infamous populist technique can only go so far. While el= ection denial has now been the pretext for political riots in two Western c= apitals, the only sustained benefit to its instigators has been to keep har= dcore supporters engaged—at the cost of alienating others, activating= opponents, and even, more in Brazil, losing political allies. Now that it&= rsquo;s in “the Western anti-democratic repertoire,” Way says, = authoritarian populists will continue to try out election denial where they= can—but they’ll be up against considerable democratic resilien= ce.

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Eve Valentine: Wh= at precedents would there be, other than the last U.S. election, for the le= ader of a country to deny the legitimacy of a democratic vote to try to hol= d power?
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Lucan Way: In pol= arized “emerging democracies”—notably in sub-Saharan Afri= ca but elsewhere—it’s been quite common for parties either to c= laim an election was stolen after the fact or to boycott one in advance, on= the grounds that it was already rigged. Sometimes, in fairness, these clai= ms have been true; oftentimes, they haven’t.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

But if we’re looking at the = wave of right-wing populism that’s been moving through Western &ldquo= ;advanced democracies” in recent years, there, Donald Trump has been = a real innovator—specifically in the way he’s not just disputed= the outcome of an election but tried to delegitimize a long-standing, high= -functioning electoral system altogether.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Now, all innovators have their inf= luences, and in this case, the most important would be Viktor Orbán,= the prime minister of Hungary since 2010—well before Trump’s p= olitical ascent—who mobilized his supporters around the idea that a p= owerful “deep state” had emerged as the big enemy of the Hungar= ian people, variously thwarting their democratic will.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Valentine: Ho= w did this idea make its way to the U.S.?

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Way: It actually = originated in Egypt and Turkey—to describe the military’s effec= tive control in those countries regardless of the outcome of elections. Orb= án appropriated the idea to undermine the legitimacy of the Hungaria= n state’s independent bureaucracy and courts. That got the attention = of Steve Bannon, one of Trump’s key early allies—and influenced= Trump from there.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

You can see the idea of the deep s= tate as part of the backdrop for his innovation with election denial. After= all, who could thwart a Republican electoral victory with Trump himself in= power? Not the Democratic Party as such but a deep state supposedly allied= with it, controlling the mechanisms of elections.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Before Trump took over the Republi= can Party, it had indulged over time in some questionable behavior around e= lections—particularly with regulations that would manipulate them ind= irectly by decreasing voter turnout among groups likely to support Democrat= ic candidates. And the rationale for these efforts was often that they&rsqu= o;d address alleged problems with voter fraud. But in seeking directly to u= pend the American electoral system as a whole, fusing the idea of voter fra= ud with the premise of the deep state, what Trump did was new—in the = U.S. and the democratic world.

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Anna Marinicheva

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

More from Lucan Way at The Sig= nal:
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

“It’s true that Tru= mp’s election-denial innovation didn’t prevent the democrat= ic transfer of power in the United States. It’s also true, and at lea= st as important, that Bolsonaro’s attempt to replicate the innovation= in Brazil was even less successful, because for a variety of reasons, many= of his supporters, along with many of his elite allies, didn’t suppo= rt the ruse—and now Bolsonaro has exiled himself to Miami. So in this= sense, Brazilian democracy has been even more resilient than American demo= cracy. Still, this innovation is now in the Western anti-democratic reperto= ire.”
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09“I can’t imagin= e it not spreading—among populists who lose elections and aren&rs= quo;t committed to the stability of their countries’ democratic insti= tutions. And they’re not disappearing. So I think it could become qui= te common. At the same time, I think it’s also likely to become less = and less effective. … The vast majority of U.S. Republicans who now = validate and amplify Trump’s claims about the 2020 election, for exam= ple, don’t really expect to see any elections overturned. They just w= ant to activate their supporters. The question is to what extent they can k= eep doing this and for how long—and the results of the 2022 U.S. midt= erm elections shouldn’t encourage them.”
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09“I’m optimistic= about the survival of democratic elections. Of course, elections aren&= rsquo;t the whole of democracy—and I’m less fully optimistic ab= out the survival of the kinds of liberal institutions, like minority rights= , that help define the whole of democracy; I think these will potentially r= emain under threat in all kinds of ways. But there are vital forces that ar= e limiting the erosion of democracy in the world—and that could even = help strengthen it in the coming years.”

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

= Continue reading ...

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

The Signal explores urge= nt questions in current events around the world—to support it and for= full access:

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

= Subscribe now

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

This email address is unmonitored;= please send questions or comments here.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

To advertise with The Signal: = ;advertise@thesgnl.com.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Add us to your address book.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 Uns= ubscribe here.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09© 2022 The Signal =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09