In the Streets of Tehran

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‘A Whole New Era’

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What do the continuing mass street= protests mean for the regime in Iran? Vali Nasr = ;on the growing danger to the Islamic Republic.

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Albert Stoynov

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(Originally published 2022 | 1= 0.13)
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It’s been four months= since a new wave of demonstrations broke out across Iran, and so far,= the regime hasn’t been able to stop them. The unrest began= after the country’s morality police arrested Mahsa Amini, a 22-= year-old Kurdish woman—because her hijab didn’t fully cove= r her hair, as mandated by Iranian law—and ended up killing her = in custody. Support for the demonstrations remains widespread in Iranian so= ciety: Workers in the oil sector briefly went on strike, with groups of law= yers and doctors reportedly joining the protests as well. As demonstra= tors continue to mobilize around the slogan “Woman, Life, Freedo= m,” some are going so far as to call for the end of the Islamic = Republic altogether.

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Globally, Iran’s t= heocratic system has been an archrival to the United States, in the Mi= ddle East and beyond, since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. In the region, = Israel has seen Tehran’s nuclear program as an existential threat, an= d the international deal to freeze the program remains highly contentious a= cross the U.S., Israel, and Arab countries. Many of the seemingly intr= actable political problems in the Middle East, meanwhile, trace back t= o the hostility between the Islamic Republic and its Arab neighbors, led by= Saudi Arabia. In this fraught context, how threatening are these= protests to the regime in Tehran?

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Vali Nasr is a profess= or of Middle East studies and international affairs at the Johns Hopkins Un= iversity School of Advanced International Studies, a senior fellow with the= Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, and the author of seven books = on the Middle East and Islam. As Nasr sees it, the turmoil in Iran presents= a major threat to the Iranian regime. The broad sympathy am= ong the Iranian people for the demonstrators’ demands extends even&nb= sp;among those who support the system. Though security forces have brutally= repressed and killed some of the protesters, many of those in the street a= re teenagers, and the regime is reluctant to use overwhelming violence agai= nst them. And this uprising is different from previous unrest, Nasr says, b= ecause—by rejecting the hijab and the law requiring it—the prot= esters are challenging the cultural foundations of the Islamic Revolution i= tself. At the same time, the regime faces a new and daunting problem of try= ing to restore domestic stability while dealing with a perpetually sluggish= economy and the ongoing regional and international instability that usuall= y demands most of its attention. And abroad, the demonstrations are changin= g perceptions of Iran in the region—and so, changing the political dy= namics of the Middle East.

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Michael Bluhm: Wh= o’s involved in these protests?
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Vali Nasr: Th= ere are people protesting in the street and not in the street; they’r= e protesting on Instagram, Twitter, and private chat groups, as well as thr= ough artists’ platforms and journalism. We see the most visible form = of these demonstrations on the street—which is the form most challeng= ing to the ruling order—but the tail of the protest is much, much big= ger. That’s what makes it so challenging to the Iranian establishment= : It extends farther and wider than the streets.
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09The street protests are mostly= carried out by young people. One member of the security forces said that t= he average age of people they’d arrested was 15 or 16. It’s spr= ead to university campuses. There’ve also been worker protests and st= rikes.
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09But by and large, this was at = first set of demonstrations led by young people, protesting not only police= brutality—that is, the fact that Mahsa Amini died in police custody = in violent and mysterious circumstances—but also the idea that the go= vernment can decide what you can and cannot wear: the idea of the autonomy = of the body. As some graffiti on a wall in Tehran said, Keep your = laws away from my body.
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Now it’s become somethin= g bigger, based on grievance and unhappiness with the Islamic Republic itse= lf. Chants are directed at the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, call= ing him a dictator.
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Bluhm: Iran a= lso experienced nationwide protests in 2009—the Green Revolution&mdas= h;after a disputed presidential election. Those demonstrations wound up bru= tally quashed by the regime. How likely is a complete crackdown now?

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Nasr: Beyond supp= ressing protests in 2009, the Islamic Republic has fought tooth and nail si= nce then to protect the regime of President Bashar Assad in Syria. Iran&rsq= uo;s leaders also witnessed the wave of revolutions in Arab countries in 20= 10 and 2011, when the rebellion against the Assad regime began. Their react= ion to the protests today is informed by 2009—and by what they saw ha= ppen in Egypt, Libya, and other Arab states during those revolutions. The r= egime isn’t going to just stand down and leave.
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09The regime is a broad system. = It’s not based on a single ruler. It involves many power centers and = social groups. It’s a bigger entity than one-man rule, and it’s= likely to defend itself. If the regime is in danger, then the regime will = crack down, and it will crack down heavily.
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09This hasn’t happened yet= —partly because they seem to have been caught completely off-guard, a= nd partly because they were involved in nuclear-treaty negotiation with the= U.S., who may have encouraged them to hold back. But it’s also partl= y because this protest is more broad-based than, and otherwise different fr= om, the ones that they’ve confronted before.
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Bluhm: How is= it different?
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Nasr: The 200= 9 protests were specifically against a rigged presidential election, becaus= e the apparent winner was not allowed to take office. They were a demand fo= r democracy. These protests today aren’t about a specific political d= emand; they started as being about individual freedom—the right not t= o wear the hijab, the right to choose what you want to wear—and it wa= s led by much younger people. It’s more difficult to brutally suppres= s 15- and 16-year-olds.

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Mostafa Meraji

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More from Vali Nasr at Th= e Signal:
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09“It’s a ne= w kind of protest, which has arisen not out of demands for po= litical rights but as a cultural protest, demanding cultural and personal f= reedoms—which is something the regime isn’t really equipped to = deal with. If these protests can’t be quelled—and even if they = go quiet for a while and keep coming back—they’ll begin to erod= e the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic. And if the Islamic Republic is go= ing to crack down on the protests now and maintain control of a country con= tinuously in protest over the long term, that would demand a very different= kind of state setup and regional policy. One thing is very clear: The assu= mption no longer holds that Iran’s leaders can manage domestically wh= ile facing international isolation and economic pressure—and also mai= ntain a great deal of regional reach—without feeling threatened by th= ings imploding from below.”
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09“The protests ar= e important here because they change perceptions of Iran&rsqu= o;s strength. That might affect the way that Iran—and Saudi Arabia&md= ash;come to the table. Saudi Arabia or any Arab country would always welcom= e protesters weakening the Islamic Republic. But I don’t think Arab g= overnments are welcoming what they see as a people’s revolution. That= ’s dangerous to them. The equivalent of these young Iranian girls who= ’re burning their hijab have been put in prison for decades in Saudi = Arabia. So the idea that the people of Iran could rise up and overthrow the= regime is threatening to the whole region—just like the religious re= volution in Iran in 1979 was threatening. No leaders in the Middle East are= looking forward to their population seeing the pictures in Iran and decidi= ng that they should do the same thing in Egypt, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia.&rd= quo;
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09“It’s a si= gnificant political challenge to the Islamic Republic. It&rsq= uo;s also a significant cultural and social challenge. A new generation isn= ’t picking a fight with the regime over a political dispute like a ri= gged election in 2009, economic issues like the rising price of gasoline in= 2019, or an issue like the closure of a newspaper in 1999. It’s over= a fundamental idea of Islamic ideology that brought this regime to power: = the necessity for the state to enforce religiosity on the population. They&= rsquo;re revolting over the right of the state to decide what people wear a= nd do. That’s a very new and very powerful form of revolt. It’s= also led to an awakening in the Iranian population, much more broadly than= just among secular youth, about the issue of fundamental human rights&mdas= h;not political rights as such but human rights, rights of individual freed= om. And it’s very difficult for a state to suppress or not address th= is awakening. It’s a very big challenge.”

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