Meanwhile, in Berlin

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Lost in Translation

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What happened to the historic turn= ing point Germany announced back in February? Liana Fix on how a major transformation with global implications got sidetrac= ked.

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Vitaly Rubtsov

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(Originally published 2022 | 1= 1.11)
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Three days after Russi= a invaded Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz proclaimed t= he moment a Zeitenwende, or historic turning point, for his country and = the world. Germany, he said on Feb. 27, would abandon decades of pacifism a= nd close relations with Russia. Berlin would send weapons to Ukraine, creat= e a special €100-billion defense fund, and wean itself from Russian en= ergy imports. But Scholz has largely failed to live up to those promises. B= y July, Germany had only sent a few pieces of heavy artillery. Berlin told = NATO countries in Eastern Europe that it would resupply them with modern we= apons systems if they sent their Soviet-era equipment to Ukraine, but Schol= z has since reneged on these pledges. Meanwhile, as energy prices were rising dramatically ac= ross Europe, his cabinet approved €200 billion in subsidies to lower u= tility costs for German consumers, without consulting its partners in the E= uropean Union. Berlin’s disagreements with France on Ukraine, arms de= als, and energy are so extensive that the two countries postponed a major b= ilateral conference planned for October until January. In Berlin, in mid-Oc= tober, Latvia’s defense minister asked, “Can we trust Germany?&= rdquo; Where’s the promise of the Zeitenwende?
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Liana Fix&nbs= p;is a fellow for Europe at the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations and the a= uthor of Germany’s Role in European Russia Policy. As F= ix sees it, Scholz didn’t follow through on the big promises of the&n= bsp;Zeitenwende largely because he’s afraid that the wa= r might expand beyond Ukraine, and he doesn’t want Germany to contrib= ute to escalating the conflict. This reluctance has damaged Berlin’s = credibility among fellow EU members to the east and west. But, Fix says, th= e meaning of Zeitenwende has also changed since February= . Scholz originally announced a transformation of German foreign policy, ye= t many inside and outside Germany now understand Zeitenwende&= nbsp;as the goal of transforming Germany from an economic power into a glob= al political leader. And whether Scholz will be able to achieve this transf= ormation remains highly uncertain.

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Michael Bluhm: Ot= her countries have complained that Germany wasn’t sending weapons qui= ckly enough and that they weren’t sending their best weapons, particu= larly the Marder tank. But Scholz says that Germany is providing more suppo= rt than anyone except the U.K. and U.S., which isn’t sending its most= sophisticated tanks or weaponry, either. What’s going on here?
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Liana Fix: Th= ere are two perspectives on Germany’s performance in Ukraine. The fir= st sees how far Germany has come since before the war, when it wasn’t= at all considering sending weapons to Ukraine. Germany said then that it d= idn’t export weapons to war zones. Now, the first German air-defense = system has arrived in Ukraine, and so far, it’s been very successful = in helping Ukrainians protect their cities and infrastructure.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09From that perspective, Germany= is being helpful: It’s trying to raise defense spending to 2 percent= of GDP, as NATO is demanding of its member states. It’s changing its= policies on energy security, after going in the wrong direction for many y= ears.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09But from the second perspectiv= e, Germany is only doing what was overdue. For years, allies had criticized= its energy dependence on Russia and its refusal to support Ukraine militar= ily. Germany has delivered weapons only under massive internal and external= pressure. That created a sense of frustration and lacking leadership: A le= ader should be sending weapons first, not after everyone else has.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09The crucial question is, what = should Germany’s role be? Is it just to be part of an alliance and a = reliable follower of U.S. leadership in this war? Or should Germany take a = leadership role itself?
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09If the goal is to take a leade= rship role itself, then just doing your homework isn’t enough. For ex= ample, Germany could be putting together European initiatives on battle-tan= k deliveries for Ukraine. Germany could be leading together with the United= States, to regain the trust that it’s lost among its Central and Eas= tern European neighbors.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09From the first perspective, Ge= rmany started from a low level and is doing a good job as one member of an = alliance. From the second, this is a historic opportunity, and Germany need= s to step up and assume a military leadership role—and it’s not= doing enough.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Bluhm: You me= ntion the defense budget. The government has released annual budget project= ions through 2026, and none of them allocates 2 percent to defense. Why isn= ’t Scholz following through on his pledge?

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Fix: When it come= s to Germany’s defense budget, the question is, do they increase the = defense budget by cutting the budget elsewhere? They avoided that question = with the special fund of €100 billion, which can be spent over the nex= t few years. But where do you cut the budget, if you need to increase your = defense budget permanently?
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Meanwhile, there’s the c= hallenge that 2 percent was nice before the war, but now other countries ar= e heading toward 3 percent. So where would that come from?
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Bluhm: You ma= ke it clear that, while Germany has made major changes since the invasion, = Scholz isn’t acting as though he wants Germany to take a leadership r= ole. Why not?
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Fix: The main= motive to slow-walk assistance, and not to assume the leadership role we&r= squo;re talking about, is a fear of escalation—which we’ve seen= since the beginning of the war. This fear that the war might escalate into= a NATO-Russia confrontation was prominent in Scholz’s speeches, and = the fear has never disappeared. Which also explains why Germany is hesitant= to send its battle tanks to Ukraine.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Olaf Scholz has argued that he= is very close with the U.S. president in thinking about what to do, what n= ot to do, and escalation. That is not entirely true, because the assistance= that the U.S. provides to Ukraine is on a completely different dimension t= han what EU member states such as Germany provide.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Even with its smaller capabili= ties, Germany is definitely not assuming the same leadership role as the U.= S. And by slow-walking everything, German policy has become a disappointmen= t for its European neighbors. It’s less of a disappointment to the Un= ited States, where there’s still a very positive attitude toward Germ= any and its contributions. But Germany’s neighbors in Central and Eas= tern Europe expected more. So they’ve lost some trust in Germany&mdas= h;trust that Germany would be there for them if the war broadens.

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Jan-Niclas Aberle

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More from Liana Fix at The Sig= nal:
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09“Scholz would no= t say that Ukraine should win this war. He always said that R= ussia should not win, and Ukraine should not lose, but he never explicitly = said that Ukraine should win. He was not too far from France’s positi= on, but there was concern that Germany would accept an agreement that gave = Russia the territories in Ukraine that it had occupied before the war&mdash= ;and perhaps more. These concerns are gone. Both Scholz and French Presiden= t Emanuel Macron have been very explicit in saying that Russia must withdra= w its troops from Ukraine’s territory and that a just peace can be ac= hieved only by restoring Ukraine’s independence and territorial integ= rity. This phrase “a just peace” is important because it hints = that the German leadership would not be satisfied with peace at any cost, b= ut that it needs to be a peace where Russia withdraws, and Ukraine can upho= ld as much as possible of its territorial integrity. The reason is Russia&r= squo;s escalation in the past month, which has shown everyone who argued fo= r a quick diplomatic solution that Russia seems unwilling to go down this p= ath.”
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09“The debate abou= t the Zeitenwende has changed. The original dis= cussion was about Germany increasing its defense spending and sending milit= ary aid to Ukraine. But for Germany’s EU neighbors, Zeitenwe= nde has become about a broader geopolitical transformation of Ger= many into an actor that assumes a leadership role and isn’t naive abo= ut Russia anymore. Germany’s policy toward China, for example, is par= t of that. Scholz recently went to Beijing, and he took a large business de= legation. That fueled skepticism among Germany’s European neighbors a= s to whether Zeitenwende is the geopolitical awakening o= f a sleeping giant or just some policy changes. On China, the government st= ill struggled to convey a sense of urgency about its transformation. It str= uggled to apply the lessons from its Russia policy. It struggled to convinc= e Europeans that they can trust Germany and follow Germany’s leadersh= ip. That’s a big question.”
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09“At the beginnin= g of the war, the Zeitenwende was more of = an emergency brake, because Germany was heading in the wrong direction on R= ussia policy, defense policy, and energy policy. Those policies had to be c= hanged—with a U-turn. Three days after the war broke out, when Scholz= spoke, there was a concern that Russia might occupy all of Ukraine and thr= eaten NATO member states. But now it has a much larger meaning. It raises q= uestions about German leadership—and German military leadership&mdash= ;in Europe.”

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