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How is Russia’s war on Ukraine changing global politics? = Tim Sayle on economics, ideology, and the specter of a new Cold War.

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Temperature Drop

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How is Russia&= rsquo;s war on Ukraine changing global politics? Tim Sayle= on economics, ideology, and the specter of a new Cold War.

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Pexels

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(Originall= y published 2022 | 03.08)

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=09=09=09=09=09=09With the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989= , the United States was, for a time, the world’s lone superpower. Its= invasion of Iraq 14 years later, in 2003, complicated that standing; the G= reat Recession of 2008 complicated it further; and over the last decade, th= e U.S. has been contending more and more actively with the challenges of a = rising China. But after Russia invaded Ukraine, Washington and its historic= ally closest allies in Europe found themselves faced once again with an imp= lacable, nuclear-armed enemy in Moscow. The dynamic has seemed in some ways= like the Cold War—with Russia the top security threat, Europeans wor= ried about an unpredictable Kremlin, and severed economic ties between the = West and Moscow. But in the years since ’89, the global order has bee= n transformed: Communism is dead, Germany is reunified, and the Western and= Eastern Blocs have scrambled. What’s the war in Ukraine doing to thi= s order?

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=09=09=09=09=09=09Tim Sayle is an assistant professor= of history at the University of Toronto, the director of the university&rs= quo;s International Relations Program, and the author of Enduring Alliance: A History of NATO and the Postwar = Global Order. In Sayle’s view, the attack on Ukraine has fun= damentally altered the relationship between the U.S. and Russia—start= ing with the West’s fast and thorough economic sanctions, and potenti= ally leading to a new global economic structure. Though the new conflict is= in some ways reminiscent of the Cold War, Russia is in a substantially wea= ker position today than the Soviet Union ever was. Putin’s authoritar= ian model won’t attract many followers, as communism once did, but hi= s government’s growing cooperation with Beijing is something utterly = unlike the Chinese-Soviet tensions of the pre-’89 world—and cou= ld complicate Washington’s capacity to deal with threats from China n= ow.

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——= —

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Michae= l Bluhm: What has the war in Ukraine done to U.S.-Russian relation= s?

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=09=09=09=09=09=09Tim Sayle: The implications have been en= ormous—even bigger than I expected before the invasion. We’re s= eeing significant steps by the United States and its allies, not only to vo= ice support for Ukraine but to take costly economic sanctions and actions a= gainst Russia.

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=09=09=09=09=09=09The relationship between the U.S. and Russia has been dra= matically changed—and I wouldn’t have predicted how quickly and= substantially that has occurred. We’re seeing major ruptures in the = economic relationship. Diplomatic relations were already quite cool, but th= ey’ve significantly changed now. Also, the attitude of both the Ameri= can government and the American people generally has changed—with man= y, including news commentators, speaking out against Russian actions. It&rs= quo;s drastic and profound.

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=09=09=09=09=09=09Bluhm: Where do you see the most consequ= ential changes?

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Sayle<= /strong>: The most profound and significant element has been the economic r= upture: sanctions, the rules governing relationships companies can have wit= h Russia, and banking changes. These are far more than I and other analysts= expected, and they’ve come into force much more quickly.

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=09=09=09=09=09=09This will have a significant effect on how the United Sta= tes and its allies organize their economies and financial systems. It&rsquo= ;s leading to the total exclusion of Russia from significant markets, lendi= ng bodies, and cutting off Russian commercial flight carriers from European= travel routes.
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=09=09=09=09=09=09This isn’t just about the economic costs to Russian= s; it is a total change in the way the world is doing business. This is goi= ng to restructure economic relationships and energy relationships in Europe= and between Europe and North America.
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=09=09=09=09=09=09Bluhm: You mention that relations betwee= n the U.S. and Russia were not warm even before the war. How would you comp= are the new dynamic between the U.S. and Russia to the Cold War?
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=09=09=09=09=09=09Sayle: Before the war, I would have caut= ioned against making comparisons to the Cold War. I would have said Russia = is a different country than the Soviet Union in its size, strength, integra= tion into the international economy, and allies. During the Cold War, the S= oviet Union was part of an alliance—the Warsaw Pact—which inclu= ded many countries that now belong to NATO.
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=09=09=09=09=09=09There are a few ways in which this is much more reminisce= nt of the Cold War than I’d expected. The first is that the United St= ates, Canada, and the countries of Western, Central, and Eastern Europe bel= ieve that Ukraine will affect the global security environment—and esp= ecially European security. What’s so surprising is the return to the = number of players who believe they have a stake in this conflict.
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Envato / The Signal =09=09=09=09=09=09

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More from = Tim Sayle at The Signal:

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=09=09=09=09=09=09“There’s a similarity here with the C= old War in that, then, the outcome of any single conflict, or= the movement of any state from one side to the other, was thought to be li= ke a domino falling, a tipping point that could change the whole balance of= global affairs. This conflict is not only about the future of Ukraine. The= other striking resemblance is in the economic rupture. The Cold War wasn&r= squo;t just a military balancing act; it was a competition between two diff= erent economic systems that really did—at least for the first decades= of the era—operate in mutual isolation.”

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=09=09=09=09=09=09“Communism during the Cold War was exceptio= nally attractive to developing states outside Europe, which c= ould look to the major projects that the Soviet Union under Stalin had unde= rtaken and hope that their countries, too, could modernize quickly on the S= oviet model. The communist system was not sustainable and utterly failed, b= ut it held a promise not only to other leaders but to other peoples. That&r= squo;s totally different than authoritarianism. Today, the authoritarian mo= del might be attractive to some leaders or people who want to be leaders, w= ho see it as a way to gain power and enrich themselves. But I don’t s= ee people organizing into groups to make sure that their country becomes au= thoritarian. It’s not an attractive model.”

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=09=09=09=09=09=09“A nightmare scenario from Washington&rsquo= ;s perspective is if the Russians continue to fight for Ukrai= ne and the Chinese begin to make moves against Taiwan. In the fall of 2021,= the potential war in the news was Chinese preparations for an attack on Ta= iwan. The current Russian and Chinese willingness to work together multipli= es the challenges facing Washington. The Russians have moved into Ukraine a= fter dramatically reducing the number of troops on their eastern borders. T= hat could only have happened with some guarantee that Russia was protected = in the East—from China and by China.Now the Chinese have enormous opp= ortunities to move in Asia, with the world focused on Ukraine. The close re= lationship between the Russians and Chinese makes for an extraordinarily di= fficult geopolitical scenario for Washington: Where does it put its time, e= nergy, money, and military resources?”

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