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What’s happening to the U.S. Republican Party? A.B. Stodd= ard on signs of change, their ambiguous direction, and the resilience of po= pulism on the American right.

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‘No Man’s Land’

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What’s h= appening to the U.S. Republican Party? A.B. Stoddard on si= gns of change, their ambiguous direction, and the resilience of populism on= the American right.

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The Signal

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Hostin= g a 24-year-old avowed white nationalist and internet provocateur = named Nick Fuentes for dinner last week, along with the musician and entrep= reneur Kanye West—who’s put himself in Fuentes’s company = after making a series of anti-Semitic public statements—the former U.= S. president Donald Trump brought on yet another moment of controversy in A= merica. Condemnations came from across the political spectrum—includi= ng from prominent Republican politicians and conservative media figures who= until recently, even after the U.S. Capitol riot in 2021, had been relucta= nt ever to criticize Trump. But with a slate of candidates he endorsed havi= ng lost their races in this year’s= midterm elections—notably, the 2020 “election deniers&rdqu= o; who’ve refused to acknowledge the legitimacy of Joe Biden’s = presidency—many Republicans have begun publicly blaming Trump for the= ir party’s overall electoral failures. Meanwhile, as the former presi= dent announced his own candidacy for the 2024 Republican presidential nomin= ation, influential media outlets on the right are now promoting Florida&rsq= uo;s Republican governor Ron DeSantis as the better bet—“DeFutu= re,” as a New York Post headline put it. But Trump still has powerful= allies and broad support in the Republican base, assets that have made him= untouchable in the party since 2016. Is something different this time? =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09A.B. Stoddard is an American journalist = who’s covered U.S. politics for decades, now an associate editor and = columnist with RealClearPolitics. To Stoddard, while it’s unusual how= right-wing elites have started to speak out against Trump and his influenc= e in the Republican Party, it’s not at all clear how long this behavi= or will last. Though DeSantis and a number of other would-be candidates are= already pitching themselves as alternative directions for the party, no on= e really knows yet how many Republican voters actually want to go in an alt= ernative direction—and ultimately, Republican voters are the only con= stituency that matters. Whatever happens, Stoddard thinks, there’s no= evidence that these voters will support anything other than some version o= f the populist politics Trump won over their party with—let alone tha= t they’ll turn back to the style of conservatism that dominated the p= arty before him.

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——= —

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=09=09=09=09=09=09Graham Vyse: What do you make of all the= losses among candidates Trump supported in the recent U.S. midterms?

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=09=09=09=09=09=09A.B. Stoddard: A lot of Democratic voter= s would like to think this election demonstrated that Americans roundly rej= ect election deniers. I don’t think it’s that straightforward. = Many Americans, who may not have much awareness about the question of U.S. democracy being in peril, noneth= eless showed up to vote on the issue of abortion access—less than fiv= e months after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and e= nded a national right to abortion. Young voters don’t often vote in m= idterm elections—and many of them don’t even know what midterm = elections are—but the Court’s decision infuriated them. It caus= ed a spike in voter registration among young Americans—young American= women, in particular—which helped Democrats and hurt Republicans. =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09Meanwhile, many independent voters thought that many Repu= blican candidates were outlandish. We saw a lot of Americans split their ti= ckets, voting for candidates of both parties, demonstrating that some voter= s are still persuadable—even in such a politically polarized country.= We saw a rejection of candidates who seemed too extreme, with Trump-backed= and election-denying candidates in particular not doing well. But that fac= tor on its own—the aversion to extremists, Trump allies, and election= deniers—is mixed in with all these others. Parsing them out isn&rsqu= o;t simple.

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=09=09=09=09=09=09Vyse: What are some of the broader signi= ficant patterns you see in the election results?

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Stodda= rd: Hispanic support for Democrats continued to erode. Now, some p= eople will tell you the erosion has “stabilized” since 2020, bu= t the reality is that Hispanics are leaving the Democratic Party, and Democ= rats need those voters in their coalition. Ultimately, this year’s el= ection results are confusing for both parties, because neither seems able t= o correct for its problems: Republicans might say their losses were Trump&r= squo;s fault, but some voters may have been focused on the extreme anti-abo= rtion laws that went into effect across a number of U.S. states after the S= upreme Court’s decision.

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=09=09=09=09=09=09It’s plausible that Democrats’ messages on cu= ltural issues are playing a role in repelling working-class Black and Hispa= nic voters, sending them into the arms of the Republican Party. Many Hispan= ic voters don’t believe themselves to be “Brown”; they id= entify as white, they’re interested in Republicans’ economic me= ssages, and they’re alienated—just as working-class white Repub= licans are—by “woke” ideology, especially the anti-police= rhetoric that got very loud in 2020. Democrats managed to quiet that rheto= ric down in 2022, but it’s still threatening to their party political= ly, because of the issues of crime. They largely ignored that issue in this= election, even as spikes in crime scared voters from both parties and in a= ll kinds of neighborhoods—urban, suburban, and exurban. The Democrati= c Party mostly pretended it wasn’t happening, but many Black and Brow= n voters want more police in their neighborhoods. They’re concerned f= or their personal security. This is a serious political liability for Democ= rats, and this year’s election hasn’t forced the party to recko= n with it.

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More from = A.B. Stoddard at The Signal:

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=09=09=09=09=09=09“If I were setting out to win the Republica= n nomination in 2024, I’d position myself as a populist, som= eone who’s against the elites, someone who’s very focused on im= migration and the culture of American education. “Parents’ righ= ts” is an extremely resonant theme among Republicans. I wouldn’= t talk about health-care or entitlement reforms. This Republican Party is l= argely uninterested in limited government. It’s much more interested = in a durable social-safety net, which is what Trump promised his voters. He= said he wouldn’t cut their Social Security or Medicare, and that was= important to them.”

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=09=09=09=09=09=09“I will be curious to see who’s still= a capitalist in the Republican Party, who’s turned off by t= he kind of authoritarian-socialist style of politics DeSantis is drawing on= in Florida as a culture warrior—using the arm of the state to batter= private businesses like Disney. That sort of thing wouldn’t have bee= n acceptable to traditional Republicans. It’s new to the party in the= Trump era, and the base loves it, but how much does the rest of the Republ= ican electorate like it?”

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=09=09=09=09=09=09“Before Trump was a political candidate, he had his aides listen to right-wing talk radio and hear what the R= epublican base was upset about. It was largely immigration and trade. Debat= es over those issues are convulsing democracies around the world, along wit= h fights over nationalism, socialism, and populism. A lot of the orthodoxie= s of the old Republican Party—beliefs in limited government, in retur= ning public money to taxpayers, in the government staying out of the privat= e sector, in the United States playing a leading role on the world stage&md= ash;disappeared after Trump rose to power.”

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The Signal explores urgent= questions in current events around the world—to support it and for f= ull access:

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