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Why does U.S. politics seem to be shifting so quickly right now? =E2=80= =A6 & Why does Turkey seem to be getting ready to invade northern Syria?

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=E2=80=9CLife is infinitely stranger,=E2=80=9D Sherlock Ho= lmes once insisted to Watson, =E2=80=9Cthan anything which the mind of man = could invent. We would not dare to conceive the things which are really mer= e commonplaces of existence. If we could fly out of that window hand in han= d, hover over this great city, gently remove the roofs, and peep in at the = queer things which are going on, the strange coincidences, the plannings, t= he cross-purposes, the wonderful chains of events, working through generati= ons, and leading to the most outr=C3=A8 results, it would make all fiction = with its conventionalities and foreseen conclusions most stale and unprofit= able.=E2=80=9D

It=E2=80=99s an ironic proposition from an imaginary character. Watson wo= uld challenge Holmes on the merits, but he couldn=E2=80=99t entirely say wh= at we might be thinking: If life is really that much more extraordinary tha= n fiction, why would there be such a market for the Adventures of Sherlock = Holmes? The thing is, Holmes isn=E2=80=99t speaking as a consumer of fictio= n; he=E2=80=99s speaking as a detective. He=E2=80=99s saying that life is i= nherently more complex, and complexly connected, than anything we could eve= r make up.

That much seems undeniably true. Yet it=E2=80=99s an idea profoundly at o= dds with a dominant spirit in mainstream media today. While the world break= s and shifts and reconnects around us in infinitely strange ways, news anal= ysis and opinion increasingly give us narratives, valorize sto= rytelling, and offer certainties to win our trust with in a time of in= escapable uncertainty=E2=80=94journalism for consumers, not for detectives.=

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Recently, at The S= ignal =E2=80=A6

Reverse Flow

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Why does U.S. politics see= m to be shifting so quickly right now? Julia Azari on Demo= cratic achievements, Republican setbacks, and a changing landscape for this= year=E2=80=99s midterm elections.

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Ryan Stone

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American politics has changed dramatically=C2=A0since the = beginning of the summer. Two months ago, U.S. President Joe Biden faced the= widespread public sentiment that his presidency was in trouble=E2=80=94fla= gging, maybe already failed. His approval rating was below 40 percent. His = legislative agenda was stalled in Congress. Polling showed that most Democr= atic voters didn=E2=80=99t want him to seek re-election in 2024. Then, the = U.S. Supreme Court handed down its transformative decision to end a nationw= ide right to an abortion in America=E2=80=94overturning=C2=A0Roe v. Wad= e=C2=A0in=C2=A0Dobbs v. Jackson Women=E2=80=99s Health Organizatio= n. In one sense, the decision was a victory for the Republican Party. = Yet in another, it risked the party=E2=80=99s standing among American voter= s, most of whom oppose the=C2=A0Dobbs=C2=A0ruling and don=E2=80=99= t favor massive restrictions on abortion rights. You could see this in the = heavily Republican state of Kansas earlier this month, when an overwhelming= majority of voters=C2=A0rejected a proposed= state constitutional amendment=C2=A0to end their statewide right to ab= ortion. All of a sudden, with midterm elections coming this fall, the Repub= licans look to be on the defensive on a central issue in America=E2=80=99s = culture wars. Until recently, they led the Democrats in =E2=80=9Cgeneric ba= llot=E2=80=9D polling about which party should control Congress next year, = but now the two are tied. The president meanwhile remains unpopular, yet th= ings are looking up for him in some ways: He=E2=80=99s benefiting from good= economic news and a number of legislative victories over the past few week= s=E2=80=94including the $750 billion Inflation Reduction Act he signed into= law on Tuesday to addresses climate change, healthcare, and tax policy. Ho= w are all these developments affecting U.S. politics?

Julia Azari=C2=A0is an associate professor and assistant= chair in the Department of Political Science at Marquette University. To A= zari, the shifting political winds in America favoring the Democratic Party= this summer are likely driven by the=C2=A0Dobbs=C2=A0decision mor= e than anything else=E2=80=94though they also likely have to do with the in= creasing extremism and decreasing political experience of Republican candid= ates across the country. The Democrats have managed some substantial legisl= ative accomplishments, Azari says=E2=80=94especially considering their smal= l majorities in Congress and the difficult forces of political polarization= =E2=80=94but it=E2=80=99s too soon to know what role these accomplishments = will play in swaying voters this year. Beyond the fall=E2=80=99s midterm el= ections, and looking ahead to the next presidential election in 2024, Azari= sees both the major U.S. political parties as grappling with fundamental q= uestions about their identities=E2=80=94about not only who should lead them= but what should they stand for.

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Incoming

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Why does Turkey seem to be= getting ready to invade northern Syria? Henri Barkey on t= he tangled interests that will determine whether intensifying military oper= ations turn into war.

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Osman Koycu

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Air strikes have been hitting Syria=C2=A0from inside Turke= y since late July, targeting the Kurdish militia known as the Yek=C3=AEney= =C3=AAn Parastina Gel=E2=80=94the People=E2=80=99s Protection Units. For ye= ars, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo=C4=9Fan has said he intends to des= troy the YPG, and in recent months he=E2=80=99s warned increasingly of a Tu= rkish incursion into northern Syria to do it. The YPG controls territory in= the country=E2=80=99s north, near the Turkish and Iraqi borders, outside t= he reach of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad=E2=80=99s government. But YPG = fighters are mostly Syrian Kurds, with Arabs and some foreigners in the mix= , and the militia doesn=E2=80=99t have any ambitions in Turkey at all. Mean= while, the YPG has become an ally of the United States, which armed and sup= ported it as it helped defeat the Islamic State in 2014 and 2015, and the g= roup has since continued to work closely with the U.S. to oust the Assad re= gime in Syria=E2=80=94an objective the allies have shared with Turkey. So w= hat is Erdo=C4=9Fan doing?

Henri Barkey=C2=A0is a professor of international relati= ons at Lehigh University in Pennsylvania and the author of five books about= Turkey and the Kurdish people. As Barkey sees it, Erdo=C4=9Fan is attackin= g the Syrian Kurds for reasons of both domestic politics and state interest= . The political motivation might be more urgent, Barkey says, because the T= urkish president is facing reelection next year and has a pressing incentiv= e to create the impression of a major military victory=E2=80=94turning vote= rs=E2=80=99 attention away from Turkey=E2=80=99s struggling economy, with i= nflation near 80 percent and the country running short on foreign reserves.= Over the longer term, Erdo=C4=9Fan wants to prevent Turkish Kurds from gai= ning autonomy in the country=E2=80=99s southeast=E2=80=94and to that end, h= e also wants to see the YPG, and any autonomous Kurdish rule, disappear in = Syria too. The only reason why Erdo=C4=9Fan hasn=E2=80=99t invaded Syria al= ready, Barkey says, is that Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected t= he plan=E2=80=94because he fears Turkey would try to keep any territory it = captured. Still, it=E2=80=99s not clear whether Putin will keep saying no, = knowing how serious a rupture he could cause between Turkey and the U.S. by= saying yes.

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