=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09

Why does Turkey seem to be getting ready to invade northern Syr= ia? Henri Barkey on the tangled interests that will determine whether inten= sifying military operations turn into war.

=09=09=09

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

Incoming

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

Why does Turk= ey seem to be getting ready to invade northern Syria? Henri Barkey<= /strong> on the tangled interests that will determine whether intensifying = military operations turn into war.

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

Osman Koy= cu

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

Air s= trikes have been hitting Syria from inside Turkey since late = July, targeting the Kurdish militia known as the Yekîneyên Para= stina Gel—the People’s Protection Units. For years, Turkish Pre= sident Recep Tayyip Erdo=C4=9Fan has said he intends to destroy the YPG, an= d in recent months he’s warned increasingly of a Turkish incursion in= to northern Syria to do it. The YPG controls territory in the country&rsquo= ;s north, near the Turkish and Iraqi borders, outside the reach of Syrian P= resident Bashar al-Assad’s government. But YPG fighters are mostly Sy= rian Kurds, with Arabs and some foreigners in the mix, and the militia does= n’t have any ambitions in Turkey at all. Meanwhile, the YPG has becom= e an ally of the United States, which armed and supported it as it helped d= efeat the Islamic State in 2014 and 2015, and the group has since continued= to work closely with the U.S. to oust the Assad regime in Syria—an o= bjective the allies have shared with Turkey. So what is Erdo=C4=9Fan doing?=

=09=09=09=09=09=09

Henri= Barkey is a professor of international relations at Lehigh U= niversity in Pennsylvania and the author of five books about Turkey and the= Kurdish people. As Barkey sees it, Erdo=C4=9Fan is attacking the Syrian Ku= rds for reasons of both domestic politics and state interest. The political= motivation might be more urgent, Barkey says, because the Turkish presiden= t is facing reelection next year and has a pressing incentive to create the= impression of a major military victory—turning voters’ attenti= on away from Turkey’s struggling economy, with inflation near 80 perc= ent and the country running short on foreign reserves. Over the longer term= , Erdo=C4=9Fan wants to prevent Turkish Kurds from gaining autonomy in the = country’s southeast—and to that end, he also wants to see the Y= PG, and any autonomous Kurdish rule, disappear in Syria too. The only reaso= n why Erdo=C4=9Fan hasn’t invaded Syria already, Barkey says, is that= Russian President Vladimir Putin has rejected the plan—because he fe= ars Turkey would try to keep any territory it captured. Still, it’s n= ot clear whether Putin will keep saying no, knowing how serious a rupture h= e could cause between Turkey and the U.S. by saying yes.

=09=09=09=09=09=09

—&mdash= ;—

=09=09=09=09=09=09

Micha= el Bluhm: How likely do you see it being that Turkey will invade n= orthern Syria?

=09=09=09=09=09=09

Henri= Barkey: A major operation is unlikely, I’d say. The Russian= s don’t appear to have given the okay when Vladimir Putin met Erdo=C4= =9Fan in Sochi in early August. The United States is very sensitive about t= he issue too—and has lost patience with Turkey over it.

=09=09=09=09=09=09

The Russians = aren’t convinced that Turkey should do it. It’s not that Moscow= cares about the Kurds; it’s that the Turks have already taken over a= significant chunk of territory in northern Syria—and in threatening = to take over more territory, they’re effectively threatening to chang= e the character of Syria. Which the Syrian government certainly doesn&rsquo= ;t want.

=09=09=09=09=09=09

And there wou= ld be an uproar in the U.S. Congress if Turkey invaded. Turkey has very lit= tle credit in Congress now. There used to be a significant Turkish lobby th= ere, but I don’t imagine there’s a single member of congress or= senator who would publicly defend Turkey now. If anything, there is a move= in Congress to stop the Biden administration from selling F-16s to Turkey&= mdash;or even from upgrading the F-16s the Turks already have. So a Turkish= incursion into northern Syria would engender a very significant backlash. = There’s already talk in Washington about sanctions against Turkey on = account of its collaboration with Russia.

=09=09=09=09=09=09

Bluhm= : How much does Erdo=C4=9Fan want to invade? He seems repeatedly t= o have said over the past few months that he wants to go in and crush the Y= PG.

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

Advertise= ment

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

Barke= y: If you gave Erdo=C4=9Fan unlimited freedom of action, he would = send a huge number of troops across the border. There’s no question a= bout it.

=09=09=09=09=09=09

Bluhm= : Yet the YPG operates exclusively in Syria—so why does Erdo= =C4=9Fan consider them a threat?

=09=09=09=09=09=09

Barke= y: The YPG has become strong largely because of the United States.= The U.S. started to support it in 2014, when the Islamic State, ISIS, was = attacking Kobani, a major city in the Kurdish part of Syria. The U.S. presi= dent at the time, Barack Obama, asked the Turks to intervene, but they refu= sed. So the Americans decided to help the YPG.

=09=09=09=09=09=09

The YPG becam= e the single most important force that defeated ISIS in northern Iraq and S= yria. The Iraqi army and Iraqi Kurds fizzled out in front of ISIS. The Unit= ed States feels a major obligation toward the YPG, because they’ve lo= st a lot of men and women fighting ISIS—and still do. They control a = prison that has thousands of ISIS detainees. We don’t know what would= happen if they were to abandon that.

=09=09=09=09=09=09

The Turks are= terrified that what happened in northern Iraq will happen in northern Syri= a. In the 1990s, the Turks were vehemently opposed to Iraqi Kurds having an= y rights. They were upset about the no-fly zone that the United States crea= ted after the first Gulf War to protect Iraqi Kurds. That zone eventually b= lossomed into the Kurdistan Regional Government, the KRG, which is now part= of a federal Iraq—though the Turks do get along alright with the Kur= dish party that controls the KRG now.

=09=09=09=09=09=09

But fundament= ally, Turkey is afraid that the same thing—an autonomous Kurdish regi= on—will happen in Syria. And if it happens in Syria, what’s nex= t? Turkey. They’re afraid that Turkish Kurds will say, The I= raqi Kurds got to be an autonomous part of a federated state. Now the Syria= n Kurds got that. We should push for it too.

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

Bashar Al= khouli

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

More from= Henri Barkey at The Signal:

=09=09=09=09=09=09

“Erdo=C4=9Fan wants to eradicate the YPG and stop the Americ= ans’ involvement with it. It’s a Syrian organization, not Turki= sh. But the Turks have always seen it as part of the Turkish Kurdistan Work= ers’ Party—once a very powerful organization that inspired, and= probably assisted and trained it. The U.S., for its part, has been transpa= rent about what it is doing with the YPG: It’s an anti-ISIS operation= , and that’s it. These people just happen to be the best fighters in = the region. … Erdo=C4=9Fan is meanwhile up for reelection as preside= nt next June, on the same day as the vote for Parliament. Turkish news medi= a, which are mostly controlled by Erdo=C4=9Fan, would make an operation in = Syria look like an enormous victory. And this is one issue where the opposi= tion doesn’t dare criticize him. The two major non-Kurdish opposition= parties support Erdo=C4=9Fan’s Syria operations. So the idea of an i= nvasion is something he sees as uniting the country behind him.” =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

“Think of it from Putin’s perspective: On the one hand= , why give the Turks the go-ahead in Syria, when they’re selling dron= es to Ukraine? On the other hand, it would be in Putin’s interest to = put distance between Turkey and the United States, given the animosity betw= een the U.S. and Russia. I’m surprised that Putin hasn’t given = the Turks the okay to go into northern Syria, because that would create a m= ajor crisis between them and the U.S. Maybe this is a card he’s holdi= ng for later. If he were to give the okay, and the Turks were to go in, all= hell would break loose in Washington—and the relationship between Tu= rkey and the U.S. would really suffer. Putin knows that he could create a m= ajor crisis here, but he’s held back.”

=09=09=09=09=09=09

“Turkey is already doing a military operation in Syria. On a= near daily basis, Turkey is attacking the YPG and killing their fighters. = They even killed the number-two person in the YPG about two weeks ago. It&r= squo;s a little shocking that the U.S. was largely silent about this and is= n’t preventing the Turks from conducting air strikes and drone strike= s against the YPG. But that tells Erdo=C4=9Fan he can get away with it, and= so he’ll continue to assassinate people. He doesn’t need a maj= or military operation; he can just escalate the things he’s already d= oing. Eventually, he’ll say, We’ve achieved what we wa= nted to achieve without a major military operation. He’ll t= ry to sell that domestically as a great victory. He has to, he’s been= talking about it for such a long time.”

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

The Signal ex= plores urgent questions in current events around the world—to support= it and for full access:

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09 =09

=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09

=09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

=09=09=09

=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

This e= mail address is unmonitored; please send questions or comments here

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

To adv= ertise with The Signal: advertise@thesgnl.com <= /span>

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Add us= to your address book

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

Unsubscribe here =09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09=09=09=09

=09=09=09