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Why does U.S. politics seem to be shifting so quickly right now= ? Julia Azari on Democratic achievements, Republican setbacks, and a changi= ng landscape for this year’s midterm elections.

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Reverse Flow

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Why does U.S.= politics seem to be shifting so quickly right now? Julia Azari on Democratic achievements, Republican setbacks, and a changing lands= cape for this year’s midterm elections.

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Ryan Ston= e

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Ameri= can politics has changed dramatically since the beginning of = the summer. Two months ago, U.S. President Joe Biden faced the widespread p= ublic sentiment that his presidency was in trouble—flagging, maybe al= ready failed. His approval rating was below 40 percent. His legislative age= nda was stalled in Congress. Polling showed that most Democratic voters did= n’t want him to seek re-election in 2024. Then, the U.S. Supreme Cour= t handed down its transformative decision to end a nationwide right to an a= bortion in America—overturning Roe v. Wade in = ;Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. In one sense,= the decision was a victory for the Republican Party. Yet in another, it ri= sked the party’s standing among American voters, most of whom oppose = the Dobbs ruling and don’t favor massive restricti= ons on abortion rights. You could see this in the heavily Republican state = of Kansas earlier this month, when an overwhelming majority of voters = rejected a proposed = state constitutional amendment to end their statewide right to abo= rtion. All of a sudden, with midterm elections coming this fall, the Republ= icans look to be on the defensive on a central issue in America’s cul= ture wars. Until recently, they led the Democrats in “generic ballot&= rdquo; polling about which party should control Congress next year, but now= the two are tied. The president meanwhile remains unpopular, yet things ar= e looking up for him in some ways: He’s benefiting from good economic= news and a number of legislative victories over the past few weeks—i= ncluding the $750 billion Inflation Reduction Act he signed into law on Tue= sday to addresses climate change, healthcare, and tax policy. How are all t= hese developments affecting U.S. politics?

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Julia= Azari is an associate professor and assistant chair in the D= epartment of Political Science at Marquette University. To Azari, the shift= ing political winds in America favoring the Democratic Party this summer ar= e likely driven by the Dobbs decision more than anything= else—though they also likely have to do with the increasing extremis= m and decreasing political experience of Republican candidates across the c= ountry. The Democrats have managed some substantial legislative accomplishm= ents, Azari says—especially considering their small majorities in Con= gress and the difficult forces of political polarization—but it&rsquo= ;s too soon to know what role these accomplishments will play in swaying vo= ters this year. Beyond the fall’s midterm elections, and looking ahea= d to the next presidential election in 2024, Azari sees both the major U.S.= political parties as grappling with fundamental questions about their iden= tities—about not only who should lead them but what should they stand= for.

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—&mdash= ;—

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Graha= m Vyse: How do you see the significance of this big piece of legis= lation that the Democrats just passed in Congress, the Inflation Reduction = Act?

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Julia= Azari: It arguably represents the biggest legislative effort to a= ddress climate change in U.S. history. Socially, its passage is a comeback = story for the Democrats, as it’s a scaled-down, revised, and renamed = version of Build Back Better—which was a much broader social-spending= agenda that Biden put forward last year. Politically, the process that led= to the passage of the act was a reminder that any party trying to get thin= gs done is going to have internal disagreements, and that’s okay. It&= rsquo;s not necessarily dysfunctional to have lots of different kinds of pe= ople with different kinds of needs within a party. And it’s not neces= sarily dysfunctional that presidents can’t conduct them all perfectly= ; presidents are always constrained by events or otherwise limited in their= ability to lead their parties internally. So, this moment is just a demons= tration that getting a big bill done takes a lot of time and effort.

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Part of the c= hallenge for the Democrats has been that they’re in a bind: They cont= rol the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives by small margins,= yet they promised big change. More importantly, their party is divided bet= ween people who want to maintain the status quo and people who want radical= change. Still, factions in the party were able to find common priorities.<= /div> =09=09=09=09=09=09

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Vyse<= /strong>: The Inflation Reduction Act joins a list of accomplishments that = includes $1.9 trillion in pandemic-relief spending; $1 trillion in bipartis= an infrastructure spending; a modest, bipartisan gun-control law; and the a= ppointment of 75 federal judges, including Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Br= own Jackson. How do you see Biden’s track record comparing to that of= previous presidents a year and a half into their first terms?

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Advertise= ment

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Azari= : George W. Bush had a number of legislative accomplishments early= in his presidency, and some of them were bipartisan: tax cuts, the No Chil= d Left Behind Act, which reformed the education system. Barack Obama also s= igned a number of major bills into law in his first couple of years in offi= ce: an economic-stimulus package, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Con= sumer Protection Act, which regulated the U.S. financial system, the Afford= able Care Act, which reformed the American healthcare system.

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It’s im= portant to remember, though, that Bush and Obama benefited during their ear= ly years from their parties having big majorities in Congress. The standard= s for presidential accomplishments have dropped in America—but even s= o, given the Democrats’ small margins in Congress, and the current le= vel of political polarization in America as a whole, this has been quite a = productive legislative session. There’s been a slow and steady moveme= nt toward shared national priorities, even if the bills that have enacted t= hese priorities have had to be stripped down.

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The gun-contr= ol legislation that Congress passed is worth dwelling on. On the one hand, = there wasn’t a lot in it about guns; there was a lot in it about ment= al health, but addressing mental-health issues is clearly a bipartisan prio= rity—and that’s not a bad thing. I actually think that, if Obam= a or Trump had signed a bipartisan law addressing gun violence, the America= n news media would have acted as though he was the best president ever. The= press is biased toward presidents who are entertaining, and Biden isn&rsqu= o;t very entertaining. He’s never going to wow people with his speech= es.

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Isabella = Martinez

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More from= Julia Azari at The Signal:

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“Biden’s approval ratings are clearly low. Some of tha= t is explained by partisanship, but he’s also lost support in his own= party. There’s a lot of frustration among Democrats about Biden&rsqu= o;s presidency not being forceful enough after the Trump era. There’s= frustration across his broader coalition of support too, including among i= ndependent voters, about Covid, inflation, and things generally having been= awful for two years. The country’s in a bad mood, fundamentally&mdas= h;and in America, the president is going to pay the price for that.”<= /div> =09=09=09=09=09=09

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“The politics of this year’s U.S. midterm elections ar= e interesting. If current trends hold, the Democrats will outperform expect= ations from earlier in the year. They may still lose one house or both hous= es of Congress, but if their Republican opposition underperforms—even= with Biden so unpopular—that will create a political narrative that = holds in American media.”

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“The Dobbs decision was a game changer. I= t was really out of step with public opinion in America, and it’s hav= ing consequences many weren’t expecting—in a country where even= 39 percent of Republicans support some abortion rights. There’s a th= eory about midterm elections in America that voters want to balance the pre= sident’s party, but—as I recently heard someone say—voter= s may now want to balance the Supreme Court.”

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The Signal&n= bsp;explores urgent questions in current events around the world—to s= upport it and for full access:

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