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What went wrong for the wave of leftist leaders elected in Lati= n America? Javier Corrales on the enduring appeal—and inherent danger= —of authoritarian populism.

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Targets of Discontent

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What went wro= ng for the wave of leftist leaders elected in Latin America? Javier= Corrales on the enduring appeal—and inherent danger—o= f authoritarian populism.

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Frederik = Trovatten

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The l= eft-wing populist and former Brazilian President Luiz In&aacu= te;cio Lula da Silva is a heavy favorite to return to power in his country&= rsquo;s October presidential elections. If he can hold the lead he currentl= y has in the polls, his victory will put the six largest economies in Latin= America—Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and now Brazil&mda= sh;under the control of left-wing populists. But those already in office in= these countries are seeing dramatic declines in their approval ratings, wi= th the exception of Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel L&oa= cute;pez Obrador, whose favorability has dropped only modestly this ye= ar. Street protests have broken out against Argentina’s President Alb= erto Fernández, and Peru’s legislature has twice tried to impe= ach President Pedro Castillo. Voters in Chile seem certain to reject a new = constitution that was the centerpiece of President Gabriel Boric’s el= ection campaign. What’s happened here?

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Javie= r Corrales is the chair of the Political Science Department a= t Amherst College and the author of five books on Latin America. As Corrale= s explains it, the Latin American leftists now in power came to it through = widespread voter disappointment with the right-wing leaderships preceding t= hem—and are now the objects of such disappointment themselves. While = some external causes are contributing to the pattern, particularly with inf= lation topping 10 percent across much of the region, Corrales says, the new= left-wing leaderships’ loss of support is also from serious mistakes= they’ve made themselves—often as the result of a shared tenden= cy toward authoritarian populism. Lula and all five of Latin America’= s current left-wing populist presidents regularly use polarizing rhetoric t= hat drives away many citizens, and they frequently use political tactics th= at undermine their countries’ democratic institutions.

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—&mdash= ;—

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Micha= el Bluhm: Why have leftists been winning elections throughout Lati= n America?

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Javie= r Corrales: The region has experienced very strong anti-incumbent = sentiment for a couple of decades now. The good news is that most countries= here have political systems that allow anti-incumbent sentiment to produce= political change. It swings from left to right—the current crop of l= eft-wing ruling parties succeeded right-wingers—but the constant is t= hat ruling parties become unpopular, get defeated, and new parties come in.= Which is a victory for democracy.

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The bad news,= though, is that there’s still so much discontent and anti-incumbent = sentiment. I’d highlight two factors. The first is about the state: L= atin American states are tremendously underfunded. Their capacity to collec= t taxes is underdeveloped, and the tax base is not very wealthy. They don&r= squo;t generate tax large revenues, so the administrative capacity of the s= tate is very weak. As a result, democratically elected governments have sta= te apparatuses that can’t deliver services. They have a chronic inabi= lity to meet important goals the public expects them to meet: education, in= frastructure, healthcare, and security. This is a big problem that isn&rsqu= o;t easy to address. Colombia and Chile, for example, are struggling with i= t, but there aren’t many opportunities to generate new revenues. =09=09=09=09=09=09

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The second fa= ctor helps explain why the left is so prevalent now, despite not having a g= reat historical record: The region has very high levels of economic inequal= ity. It’s the first thing that many people think about when they thin= k of Latin America. Leftist, populist politics dominate in societies where = there’s a lot of inequality, because there’s a mass of people a= ttracted by political rhetoric that promises redistribution and help for th= e poor. That kind of rhetoric has appealed across democracies down through = time, since ancient Greece.

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Bluhm= : You mention anti-incumbent sentiment. How much of the success of= leftist candidates is just due to citizens wanting to vote out the parties= who were in office?

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Advertise= ment

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Corra= les: There’s some of that dynamic, but every time the left o= r right returns to power, it comes transformed into something new. Chilean = President Gabriel Boric, for example, presented his politics as representin= g an updated left—a younger left, much more oriented around identity = issues. In Colombia, incoming President Gustavo Petro chose a very non-trad= itional vice-presidential candidate: a woman of African descent who’s= an environmentalist. It’s a way to say, We’re a new l= eft—not the old left of Marxist economics.

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So it’s= not entirely cyclical, but there’s a swing between left and right. P= olitical differences in Latin America remain rooted in ideas of the left an= d the right, so the menu of parties continues to be arrayed between left an= d right. But every time one of these two poles returns to power, it comes w= ith an updated discourse and outward appearance.

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Bluhm= : Authoritarian populism has been on the rise globally for some ye= ars now, and Latin America has a history of this kind of anti-democratic st= yle. How much of a tendency toward authoritarian populism do you see in tod= ay’s leftist leaders?

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Corra= les: The essence of liberal democracy is its limits on the executi= ve branch. Many presidents would like to supersede those limits, and this t= emptation is pervasive in the region. If a system is to stop authoritarian = moves, either the presidents will have a personal belief in the value of ch= ecks and balances, or the system has to block them directly. To advance aut= horitarian moves, presidents need the institutional capacity to go forward = with them.

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But to answer= your question, I’d look at a particular country’s set of insti= tutions. Do those institutions convey to the president, Don’= t go there, or you’re going to run into trouble? Some count= ries offer more serious roadblocks than others; there’s a lot of vari= ation.

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Instead of fo= cusing on whether some leftist movement has authoritarian characteristics&m= dash;because there’s always this temptation—we need to focus on= whether the system has the ability to contain authoritarianism.

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Jeremy St= ewards

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More from= Javier Corrales at The Signal:

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“Leftist movements promise high levels of government spendin= g and redistribution, so in Latin America, they all end up promoting the on= e economic activity that produces significant revenue in the region: extrac= ting and exporting natural resources. Countries need to get revenue from so= mewhere, but the states of Latin America are underfunded. Even a mild lefti= st populist like López Obrador in Mexico has turned enormous attenti= on to the idea of re-nationalizing the oil sector and extracting resources.= What differentiates these leftist leaders from one another is the extent t= o which they go after existing institutions—or alternatively, the ext= ent to which they respect the rules of the game and the system of checks an= d balances.”

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“Since 2015, the region has been in an economic slowdown—an= d in some cases, like Argentina, a recession. The pandemic made it even wor= se. Latin American countries had started to recover, but now they’re = being hit by two external shocks: rising interest rates in the United State= s and rising energy costs around the world, which are acutely affecting cou= ntries that don’t export energy resources. All governments in Latin A= merica are dealing with a very adverse economic environment, which seriousl= y complicates their ability to deliver for their constituents. So all these= governments are going to be experiencing declining approval ratings.&rdquo= ;

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“There’s something about these presidents that’s= very unappealing to groups on the other side. It’s not just their le= ftism; it’s the way that they conduct politics—it feels very th= reatening to their opponents. And there’s a big element of incompeten= ce here—either they’re just not good at their job or their admi= nistration flounders as a team. There’s a new paper by a great politi= cal scientist, Kurt Weyland, who argues that populism tends to lead to terr= ible mistakes in office. He argues that if you had a system of checks and b= alances and greater pluralism, many mistakes could be prevented. But with u= nchecked populism, stupidity doesn’t get stopped, so you end up with = a lot of blunders. As an example, President Pedro Castillo in Peru has been= repeatedly nominating corrupt and inept people for public office. The pres= s immediately discovers all sorts of scandals, and the officials have to re= sign.”

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The Signal ex= plores urgent questions in current events around the world—to support= it and for full access:

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